South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 17th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small pulsey E swells favouring beachies Thurs/Fri with light winds and a’noon N’lies, more variable on Fri (S’ly south of Ballina)
• Small S swell and pulsey E swell combo this weekend with light winds, bigger on Sun
• Pulsey E swell continues into Mon/Tues with light winds Mon, developing SE’ers on Tues
• Potential tropical cyclone in Coral Sea next week, uncertain surf potential at this early stage but big swells possible/likely- check back Fri for revisions

Recap

Swell from the E-E/SE yesterday came in roughly around f/cast expectations (maybe a little cool) with some 3 to occ. 4ft surf on the outer Points and SE tending E/SE winds (variable around rain squalls). Size has eased off a notch into today but winds have also backed down, offering up a fair smorgasbord of 3ft ( occ. bigger sets) surf on beachies and Points. E’ly winds are now making surface conditions bumpy but they are light enough to surf through if you aren’t too demanding about wave quality.

This week (Jan 17-19)

We’re midway through the current pattern with a high pressure cell near New Zealand, weakening trough in the Tasman and an approaching complex low SW of Tasmania. In the South Pacific we have a retrograding trough of low pressure along a tradewind band and finally,the Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM) is in full swing and a tropical low is expected to bud off the end of the monsoon trough into and over the weekend, with a reasonable likelihood of cyclogenesis into next week. Still plenty of uncertainty there over intensity, track and surf potential but at least some model runs are starting to look favourable, if large to very large swells are desirable from your perspective.

In the short run and we’ll see small E swells through tomorrow a notch down from today in the 2ft range with the occ. bigger sets. Light winds early (W-NW) will tend light/mod N’ly offering up a very fun typical summers day for backbeaches.

Similar winds for Fri- light and variable early with W/NW-NW most likely before tending NE. A trough moving up the coast brings a S’ly change to the Coffs region before stalling and washing out around the border where a variable flow is likely. There should be fun beachies around with more 2 occ. 3ft surf. 

The complex low moving south of Tasmania Fri pushes W’ly gales through Bass Strait and with the remnants of the trough will see a moderate W-SW flow in the morning before winds swing SE in the a’noon. Small amounts of E swell continue in the 2ft range with a minor pulse of S swell likely to show from Sydney northwards in the a’noon to 2-3ft, bigger late on the Hunter. 

This weekend (Jan 20-21)

We’re still looking at a mixed bag for the weekend with the Tasmanian low driving a fetch to the SE of the Island Friday (as well as W’ly gales through Bass Strait) generating modest S swell Sat for the a’noon- likely some 2-3ft sets at NENSW S facing beaches, tiny in QLD.

E’ly swell  from the South Pacific fetch which reaches into the Northern Tasman will start to perk up over the weekend,  showing some 3ft+ sets through Sat.

Light winds both days favouring beachies in the morning, tending NE in the a’noon Sun and light/variable on Sat as a troughy area hovers over the region.

By Sun we should see  more energy in the E swell as size and period perk up a notch (although it will be slow at times)- offering some 3-4ft surf with occ. bigger sets. Mixed in with S swell to 2-3ft it suggests potential for good peaky beachbreaks under light winds.

Next week (Jan 22 onwards)

The retrograding fetch in the South Pacific will supply pulsey 3-4ft surf into Mon with early light winds (land breezes likely) tending variable under a weak, troughy pattern.

That’s likely to quickly tend SE then E on Tues as a new high moves into the Tasman and ridges up the Eastern seaboard. So we’ll have some short range SE-E swell into the mix Tues along with the better quality E-E/NE swell to 3ft+.

There’s reasonable confidence in that outcome.

We may see a trough form off the NSW Coast later next week, and a potential low near Tasmania, all of which could generate local and more distant swells from the E/SE and S respectively. We’ll see how that shapes up.

Meanwhile in the Coral Sea we’re likely to be tracking a tropical cyclone. While confidence is still low this far out, we’re starting to see some broad model agreement on a southwards track, with firming odds for a large swell for the sub-tropics by mid next week extending into the later part of next week.

Still a way to go but under some current model runs we can start to pencil in large swells from the E/NE-E- potentially up into the 8-10ft range by Thurs/Fri with S’ly quarter winds. 

 That’s still a long way off, so we’ll track model runs over the next 36 hrs and report back Fri.

Seeya then.