South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 13th Nov)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E’ly tradewind swells likely to slightly increase in Tues, light winds for the morning
• N’lies developing Wed/Thurs
• Long period S swells peak later Wed/Thurs, favouring NENSW for size
• Increase in short range S swell for Fri, lingering into Sat
• Some swell now expected from Tropical depression or TC as it moves across the swell window- Sat and Sun will see some sets under light winds
• Another long period S swell pulse Mon, easing Tues with E’ly winds
• Blocking pattern next week with E’ly winds and developing E’ly swells

Recap

Small E’ly swells kept a small drumbeat of surf active over the weekend, basically in the 2ft range with a few bigger sets. Winds were lighter in SEQLD, especially the Sunshine Coast which saw a period of land breezes. N’lies got stronger the further down the NSW Coast you went, especially on Sunday. A S’ly change today has now worked it’s way north to just south of the QLD border and is expected to stall around Moreton Island tonight. Tricky, troughy winds this week with some juice from the S. Details below.

Sunny coast beachies picking up a bit of extra size from a tradewind swell

This week (Nov 13-17)

Quite an active synoptic situation to start the week. The continent is unstable with a heat trough over NWWA and more troughs extending from the interior  through to the East Coast. A deep low and powerful frontal system with a long trailing fetch is currently traversing the lower Tasman, generating long period S swells. In the tropical South Pacific an area of convection is currently organising and deepening into a tropical depression and potential TC east of the Solomon Islands. This depression or TC is expected to race through the swell window and send a small pulse of swell our way. Our long lasting small tradewind swell will peak tomorrow and then fade out as the fetch retreats North-eastwards.

In the short run yesterday’s S’ly change quickly washes out under a weak synoptic environment with light winds across the region, tending E’ly then NE in the a’noon. A slight bump in E’ly tradwind swell after the fetch thickened up over the weekend sees 2-3ft surf across the region.

Stronger S swell with uncommonly long swell periods then fills in through Wed. No real change to that outlook. With swell periods in the 16-17 second band we can expect some juice and outliers from swell focussing at S facing reefs in NENSW but swells of this direction and period typical lose energy from period drag on the shelf so a realistic size is 3-4ft with some bigger 4-6ft outliers on bars with a few rare reefs bigger. N’ly winds will be the bigger problem with freshening winds through the day and some developing NE windswell to 2-3ft in the a’noon. Best to keep expectations low- S’ly groundswell and N’ly winds is a tough nut to crack apart from a very few choice locations.

Lighter winds into Thurs morning as a trough approaches, likely NW early before a light/mod NE’ly flow (stronger in NENSW, lighter in SEQLD). A mix of NE windswell and long period S swell will make finding a quality wave a challenge but size will be there. 2-3ft from the NE and some sets to 3-5ft from the S in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. Again, there’ll be a few outliers at river mouths and S facing reefs.

A front combines with a trough and the paired systems create a large S’ly wind field in the Central-Northern Tasman on Fri with a S’ly change  likely in by first light. That will see mod/fresh S’ly winds tending mod/fresh S/SE and a moderate short range S swell building through the day to 3-4ft. Cleanest conditions early should be worth pouncing on with some S’ly swell to 2-3ft in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD with some small E swell mixed in.

This weekend (Nov 18-19)

We should see light winds tending E’ly on Sat as a small high centre moves offshore from the Central NSW Coast. An off-axis fetch in the Tasman and the remnants of Fridays short range S swell should hold a small blend of S swells to 3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. In addition the tropical depression or TC (Mal) which is expected to track SE through the swell window Wed/Thurs is expected to send some small E/NE swell our way. It’s a tricky, compact free-standing system but we can reasonably expect some 3 occ. 4ft sets Sat into Sun with revision to come this week.

That swell holds into Sun morning (under current modelling) before easing in the a’noon. Light winds for the morning, tending E/NE-NE in the a’noon. 

Next week (Nov 20 onwards)

Monday is a different story. Another powerful low tracking into the Far Southern Tasman- this time at potential storm force- sends more uncommonly long period S swell up the East Coast (although better aimed up the Tasman Sea pipe towards Fiji). With swell periods potentially  in the 19-20 second band there’ll be some real juice in the swell. Typically we see a large range of wave heights with these events due to bathymetry effects and subsequent swell focussing, even at S facing beaches. We may see some solid 5-6ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW , with smaller surf elsewhere, although all S facing exposures should see solid sets fill in mid-late morning with biggest sets in the a’noon session. E’ly winds are expected as a new high pressure ridge builds up the coast.

Another blocking pattern expected next week with a slow moving high in the Tasman and a broad wind field expanding over the Coral Sea early next week. That should see a regime of onshore E’ly winds and building E-E/NE tradewind swells through most of next week. We’ll pencil in an increase in size through Tues, likely building into at least the 4ft range for the east of next week under an onshore flow. 

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.