South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 25th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small mixed bag of S and E’ly swells early next week
• E’ly tradewind swell boosts a notch Tues/Wed next and hangs in at low levels Thurs/Fri
• Small S pulse Fri
• More small S swell late Sat, persisting Sun favouring south of the border
• N’ly winds over the weekend, lighter in SEQLD
• NE windswell early next week, tending to E’ly tradewind swell mid week

Recap

SE winds maintained a strong flow over the weekend, easing through Sun in NENSW. S/SE swell held 3-4ft through Sat, easing a notch Sun and a small signal of E swell maintained some 2-3ft surf. Small peelers across the Outer Points had the best wave quality. Winds have eased off today and swell from the E is just starting to perk up a notch with 2 occ. 3ft sets offering a fairly even spread of options across Points and beachies. 

A few glassy peelers as E swell starts to slowly bump up 

This week (Sep25-29)

The high pressure belt is behaving in typical spring fashion- tracking NE as it enters the Tasman with episodic N’lies. We’ve got a small fetch out of Cook Strait at present from a decaying low pressure system, and small, compact low about to enter the Tasman. Combined with some swell from a tradewind band feeding into a long trough we’ll see concurrent small swells from these sources. A stronger front late this week will supply a modest S pulse heading into the weekend. Read on for details.

In the short run and we’ll see N’lies become established through tomorrow with a period of light/variable winds through the morning (especially in SEQLD). Get in early for that because we’re expecting the E’ly tradewind swell to bump up a notch to 2-3ft ( a few 4ft sets are possible at E’ly swell magnets). Once the N’ly kicks in it’ll be backbeaches only.

Variable winds for Wed morning, especially north of Cape Moreton before N’lies kick in. A trough moving north will bring variable trending S’ly winds spreading north through the a’noon but likely stalling before it reaches the border. A mixed bag will be in full effect with E/NE swell from the South Pacific to 3ft, E/SE swell from the Cook Strait fetch arriving late in the a’noon and small S/SE swell from the compact low tracking into the Tasman. All these sources are modest but should add up to some fun 3ft surf on the beachies.

A S’ly change extends through the region Thurs with good odds for a morning period of light/variable winds, or land breezes. Same mixed bag on offer with all sources again providing surf in the 2-3ft range. Winds tend light/mod S-SE through the a’noon after a shallow S’ly change. 

High pressure quickly moves NE into Fri, with lighter variable winds in SEQLD (again) and a more N’ly biased flow extending throughout NENSW, increasing with S’ly latitude. Light morning winds from the SW-S will tend light E’ly through the day more E/NE-NE south of Ballina-Yamba. A few fun waves on offer. A small bump in S swell from a NE movement of a small low into the Tasman and a slow fading E/NE swell signal. There’ll be a surfable wave Fri but nothing to get frothed about. 

This weekend (Sep30-Oct1)

N’ly winds for the weekend as a new high enters the Tasman in the wake of quite a strong front late Fri. A N’ly flow will develop and freshen at some point in the morning. We should  see lighter W-NW winds before that. Fridays front tracks NE and looks to send a small pulse of S swell up the coast, likely arriving late a’noon in NENSW in the 2-3ft range. N-N/NE winds will likely be mod/fresh by that time so you’ll need some wind protection. 

N’ly winds freshen o/night in NENSW, remaining lighter in SEQLD with a morning NW flow seeing clean conditions across most of the Northern half of the Sunshine Coast. S’ly swell through the morning should hold 2-3ft surf smaller in SEQLD where the last of the E’ly swell provides the odd 2ft set.

Next week (Oct2 onwards)

Looks like NE windswell will be the main swell source next week. 

There’s model divergence for the opening of the week but the basic pattern seems fairly established.

N’ly winds and small NE windswell likely for Mon and Tues.

Things look juicier from mid week as winds really accelerate into an approaching complex trough. Models are suggesting quite a strong fetch possibly late Tues into Wed, suggesting some size from the NE through Wed south of Yamba.

We’ll see how it looks on Wed but penciling in at least 2-3ft of NE windswell Wed is potentially justified especially south of Byron-Ballina. An offshore change as the trough/front pushes through offers up great potential for NENSW either late Wed or early Thurs depending on timing.

We should also see small amounts of E’ly tradewind swell start to rebuild mid week as another fetch develops in the Central Coral Sea extending to the New Caledonia zone.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it looks.