South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 23rd Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Modest bump in S'ly swell Thurs with winds tending fresh S’ly winds tending SE in SEQLD
• Small long period S swells mid/late this week, only showing at NENSW S swell magnets if at all
• Likely S-SE winds this weekend with small swells
• Small, long range E/SE swell shows Sat PM and extends into Sun/Mon, supplies a few inconsistent sets
• A nice round of E-E/NE tradewind swell now on tap next week, building Mon, getting punchy/sizey Tues-Thurs
• Possible sizey S swell later next week
• Potential for several E’ly swell sources next week- check back Fri for updates

Recap

Not much surf across the region with a few select NENSW S swell magnets seeing some 2ft (occ 3ft sets) surf yesterday, clean before NE winds kicked up in the a’noon. Today is smaller, topping out at 2ft at the best S swell magnets in the region and tiny elsewhere. Light NW winds early have tended to N’lies, before trending W/NW ahead of a S’ly change moving up the coast and expected to establish across the North Coast this a’noon, across the border overnight.

A few small, clean beachies at northern ends was close to the best of it

This week (Aug 23-25)

A cold front and long trough are bringing a S’ly change to the NSW coast, extending into the sub-tropics later today and overnight. There’s not a great deal of useful swell generating winds associated with the change so only modest short range S swells are expected  to accompany it. The lingering troughy pattern gets much more dynamic over the weekend as a powerful high approaches from the Bight. Storm force low pressure systems tracking under the continent are favouring Victoria for direct swell but we’ll see some long period swells refracting back into the Eastern Seaboard from these sources later this week and into the weekend. It’s quite a complex brew. Let’s try and make some sense of it.

In the short run and a moderate/fresh S’ly flow will tend SE in the a’noon.  Short range S swell of no great quality will be dominant to 2-3ft at S facing beaches across NENSW, smaller by a notch in SEQLD. There will be some long period S swells in the water although the majority of the energy is heading up the Tasman Pipe to Fiji and across to New Zealand. We may see a few 2ft sets from this source later in the a’noon.

Short range S swell eases out on Fri with surf to 2-3ft in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft at SEQLD S facing beaches fading during the day.  We should see traces of long period S swell holding some inconsistent 2ft sets at the best swell magnets. Most beaches will be tiny from that source. A morning SW flow is expected across most of NENSW and the Southern Gold Coast before S-SE winds kick in. Those winds should ease during the a’noon as pressure gradients ease.

This weekend (Aug 26-27)

A more subdued outlook expected for the weekend with a coastal trough now either hovering just inland or retrograding back towards the Gippsland coast. That should see a regime of light winds for the weekend, most likely light S-SE’ly breezes Sat, tending E-NE Sun with morning offshore winds. 

Not much surf expected for Sat- just a tiny blend of S swells to 1-2ft at S facing beaches. We mentioned a long distant E’ly fetch well SE of Tahiti and that has been chugging away this week. Travel distance will shave off most of the size due too swell decay but a few inconsistent 2ft+ sets from the E/SE should show through Sat a’noon.

Small again Sun, with another mixed bag of long period S swell glancing the coast and a small long range E’ly signal signal. Again, not exceeding 2ft+ (possible occ 3ft set). Winds may tend more E’ly (NE’ly south of Yamba) and freshen a notch into the a’noon depending on how the trough behaves. We’ll finesse that on Fri.

Next week (Aug 28 onwards)

Strong high pressure is slower moving than modelled on Mon but still expected to move east of Tasmania early next week. Models are in broad agreement that the trough line will remain inland (as opposed to moving offshore and forming a closed or diffuse low) so we can expect a light onshore flow from the E (E/SE-E/NE) and building surf from the same direction from E’ly tradewinds in the Coral Sea, likely building into the 2-3ft range Mon and mixed with long range E/SE swell from the South Pacific and traces of S swell.

Similar winds continue Tues with E-E/NE swell likely in the 3ft range and inconsistent 2ft sets from the long range source.

We should see a shift in winds mid week (late Wed or early Thurs) as a trough/front approach from the W and high pressure moves across the Tasman. That should see winds shift W-NW late on Wed or Thurs with potential for fun surf from the E/NE.

Further ahead and models are hinting at something more dynamic later next week-although it is at the end of model runs and thus subject to low confidence. GFS is suggesting a front interacts with the lingering trough to form a low pressure trough in the Tasman and strong S’ly to SE’ly  fetch in the Tasman later next week with potential for large S-SE swell to develop.

EC is maintaining a more bog standard frontal intrusion but still offering potential for sizey S swell to develop Fri 1/9 or into the weekend.

There’s also lots of instability in the South Pacific window next week as troughiness potentially deepens and gets captured by the dominant high pressure cell. That may see a useful E’ly fetch develop SE of New Caledonia or further towards Fiji. Still a long way away so we’ll flag it for now and see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then.