South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 21st Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, easing S swells Tues with N'ly winds
• Modest S'ly swell Wed PM (MNC), Thurs elsewhere with winds tending S-SE in NENSW Wed, S/SE on Thurs in SEQLD
• Small long period S swells mid/late this week, only showing at NENSW S swell magnets if at all
• Tricky outlook for the weekend with low pressure trough possible off NSW Coast
• Likely S-SE winds this weekend with small swells
• Long range E/SE swell Sun/Mon supplies a few inconsistent sets
• Plenty of SE swell building early next week with winds slowly moderating 
• Potential for several E’ly swell sources next week- check back Wed for updates

Recap

Pulses of S swell over the weekend provided enough energy for fun surf at S exposed breaks. Surf initially pulsed Sat with some clean 2-3ft surf at NENSW S exposed breaks, smaller in SEQLD. Size was a smidge bigger Sun with clean morning conditions and light a’noon SE winds offering up all day surfing potential with small fun surf on offer. Still some clean S’ly quadrant surf on offer today in the 3ft range across NENSW and select SEQLD S swell magnets with clean morning conditions under offshore winds, which are expected to tend mod N/NE through the day. 

Last pulse of S-S/SE swell on offer at swell magnets this morning

This week (Aug 21-25)

The Tasman Sea is looking very benign to start the week with a large area of weak high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard and extending into the Tasman. The remnants of the weekends frontal systems have set up a fading off axis fetch near New Zealand with the current run of small S swells also on the way out. A weak mid week front will bring a wind change and a small flush of S swell but next week looks a bit more robust although with plenty of wind. Read on for details.

In the short run and the current run of small S swell bottoms out tomorrow with minor leftovers to a foot or so at most places and a few 2ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW. There may be some traces of long period S swell glancing the coast in the a’noon but it’s hard to see more than the occasional 2ft set at the best S swell magnets. Light morning NW winds should swing N’ly and freshen through the day.

Not much surf for Wed either. Tiny leftovers, with a smidgen of NE windswell on offer for the very keen but not exceeding 1-1.5ft. A trough/front will be pushing north through the day with N/NW winds ahead of the change and S-SE winds behind it. Expect the change into Coffs mid-morning, late a’noon for the Byron-Tweed region and just tickling the QLD border on dark. We may see more traces of long period S swell to 2ft at S facing beaches in NENSW but to be honest, it’s a very flukey source. The MNC is likely to see a modest bump in short range S swell in the a’noon, up to 2ft+ at S exposed breaks, but of low quality.

That small bump in S swell will spread north for Thurs but with lingering S’ly winds quality looks poor. Most places  will be wind affected by S’ly tending SE winds. Small S swells to 2-3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, 1-2ft in SEQLD. 

Similar but easing winds to end the working week under a weak, troughy environment. Not much swell energy expected. A small blend of leftover S-SE and traces of longer period S may see some 1-2ft surf at S facing beaches, with most places around a foot or so. Light morning winds from the SW should tend light SE-E in the a’noon. 

This weekend (Aug 26-27)

Very different model outputs suggested for the weekend so we may be in for some major revisions as we head through the week. GFS suggests the remnants of this week’s trough linger in the Northern Tasman and maintain S’ly winds, with the flow enhanced by a new (monster) high pressure system moving east of Tasmania this weekend.

Under that scenario we’re looking at a light/mod S’ly flow Sat, increasing a notch into Sun.

European model (ECMWF) suggests a stalled trough of low pressure along the Mid North Coast or Hunter region with N’ly winds along the SEQLD-Yamba area and possibly freshening SE winds further south. 

Wind forecast notwithstanding Sat should see small, low energy surf in the 1-1.5ft range.

Adding to that on Sun should be a small signal of long range E/SE swell emanating from a long E’ly fetch in the South Pacific this week. Even allowing for the fact these fetches tend to over-produce it’s hard to see anymore than very inconsistent 2ft+ sets on Sunday. 

Tricky wind forecast so check back Wed.

Next week (Aug 28 onwards)

Winds from the S-SE and plenty of building  short range SE swell under current modelling to start next week. Expect revisions with the model divergence on offer but size building into the 3-4ft range Mon, building further Tues looks likely with mod/fresh S/SE-SE winds as the huge high fills the Tasman Sea with SE winds (see below), possibly enhanced by a low pressure trough. 

Small background E/SE swell from the South Pacific will be in the mix as well, likely lost as a weak signal in the much stronger SE swell.

We should see winds ease through the week and swells ease back slowly, hopefully with a sweet spot of cleaner conditions which looks likely Wed at this stage. 

Further ahead and there is quite a bit on the radar. We may see a fetch out of Cook Strait mid next week, with possibly a lingering E’ly fetch through the Northern Tasman into South Pacific corridor. That suggests at least modest amounts of E’ly quadrant swell around later next week. 

We’ll focus on the specifics as we move through the week and model runs start to sharpen focus.

Check back in on Wed for the latest.