South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 18th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small surf everywhere Saturday AM, building from the S through the a’noon with W tending SW-S winds
• Fun S'ly swell Sun with generally good winds
• Small pulse of S swell Mon
• Possible small S swell late Wed into Thurs
• Small, long range E swell possibly arriving Sun- low confidence, check back Mon

Recap

Not much on offer across the region with the MNC area seeing the lions share of small S swells yesterday, amounting to clean 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches, mostly 2ft elsewhere in NENSW and tiny 1-1.5ft in SEQLD. Conditions were clean early before strong N’ly winds kicked in. Today has seen some small NE windswell, with better quality around Yamba-Coffs, mixed with some small leftover S swell. Nothing amazing, with size topping out around 2ft+. Conditions are currently being groomed by fresh NW tending W’ly winds as a vigorous front pushes up into sub-tropical latitudes. Typical winds for August.

A few fun beachies around. Yamba-Coffs has definitely been the best of it

This weekend (Aug 19-20)

Minor tweaks to the weekend f/cast with the front and associated low just looking a little more organised and not so disjointed. It’s not going to add much materially to wave heights, we’re still looking at pulsey S swell building to 3-4ft through Sat a’noon across the MNC to North Coast with a much smaller, late increase north of the border seeing some 2ft sets at S facing beaches and nothing north of Cape Moreton. Expect an undersized surf through the morning consisting of tiny leftover NE wind swells. Morning W-W/SW winds will swing SW-S in the a’noon.

Front reaching sub-tropical latitudes supplies some fun S swell from Sat a'noon

Sunday looks better, for size at least. The head of the fetch reaches almost to New Caledonia and this typically aids S swell penetration into SEQLD. Nothing too major is expected- but we should see some 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches in SEQLD, bigger 3-4ft across NENSW favouring S facing beaches for size. Early winds will tend W-SW across the region before easing and tending to light S/SE breezes. A peak in size will wane through the a’noon, offset by light winds. If you can duck and weave a bit there should be some fun options around on the weekend at S exposed breaks, favouring south of the border for size (as usual).

Next week (Aug 21 onwards)

Weak high pressure moves into the Tasman next week, bringing light winds Mon, likely land and seabreezes. Small S swells are on the menu with a last front tracking across the Tasman over the weekend (see below) delivering a small payload of S swell that looks to top out in the 2-3ft range in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD.

Last front across the Tasman delivers another small S swell pulse early next week

A cut-off low now looks to form on the Eastern side of New Zealand, outside our swell window so we’ll see easing surf into Tuesday, possibly with some small NE windswell developing later Tues into Wed.

Winds should tend NW-W late Tues into Wed as another front sweeps up over the SE of the country.

That front looks to bring a small flush of S swell either late Wed or more likely Thurs- although models are still offering mixed messages. EC suggests a slightly stronger S swell to 2-3ft at S facing beaches with GFS not really interested at all. We’ll update on Mon.

Further ahead and absent any major swell sources we’ll be looking at some flukey, long period S swell wrap from a poorly aligned storm force low below the continent, likely to pulse in the 2ft range with occasional bigger sets Wed-Fri. Winds look to be light, tending N’ly during this period under a troughy pattern so there may be some surprise packets at S facing beaches.

Into next weekend and we may see a frontal intrusion into the Tasman delivering some S swell, although models are still very divergent so confidence is low on outcomes. We’ll pencil it in for now and see how it looks come Mon.

A trough and long E’ly fetch in the South Pacific next week is positioned on the edge of the swell window and a long, long way out. We may see some very inconsistent 2ft+ sets from this source as early as next weekend.

Check back Mon and we’ll check out these swell sources as they get closer to forming.

Until then, have a great weekend!