South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wed 16th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S'ly swell Thurs in Northern NSW, clean early (tiny in SE Qld)
• Peaky N'ly windswell Fri, showing best across the Gold/Tweed Coasts (smaller elsewhere), winds slowly veering offshore
• Small surf everywhere Saturday, late pulse from the south on the MNC
• Fun S'ly swell Sun with generally good winds
• Nothing major for the long term

Recap

S'ly swells built to 3-4ft at south facing beaches south of Byron on Tuesday, though surf size was smaller elsewhere and tiny north of the border. Size has eased a little today. Winds have been out of the southern quadrant though lighter and more SW thru' W/SW early on.

Flat water fun at Noosa

Decent lines at Byron Bay (for a south swell)

This week (Aug 17-18)

Easing swells are expected for the rest of the week, and northerlies will give it a kick in the pants on Thursday afternoon, so surf options will be limited unless you're super early (when we'll see an early NW in a few places), or aiming for a protected northern corner after lunch.

South of Byron, south swell magnets should see occasional 2-3ft+ sets though it'll become smaller during the day. We'll see a late increase in local N'ly windswell at a few spots, mainly around the border regions (southern Gold/Tweed Coasts).

Elsewhere, expect smaller surf on Thursday - wind affected by the afternoon - and north of the border surf size will be tiny at most locations, just a few stray 1-2ft sets at exposed northern ends.

Thursday's northerlies will veer more N/NW into Friday - and strengthen, too - sitting mainly inside SE Qld's immediate swell window. This should generate some peaky waves at exposed north facing beaches north of the border, biggest at the southern Gold Coast with occasional 2-3ft sets.

Expect slightly smaller surf on the Sunshine Coast (due to a shorter fetch length), and also the Northern Rivers, down to about Yamba (owing to a less favourable coastal orientation). South from Yamba won't see much N'ly windswell at all, however Northern NSW will pick up small leftover S'ly swells on FRiday, so there'll be peaky waves at open beaches.

The good news for Friday is that winds are expected to veer from the N/NW to the NW, and then W/NW later on, so conditions will gradually clean up across the open beaches. It's a little knife-edge as to local conditions - those locations picking up the most size will be sideshore for the most part - but it'll be well worth keeping an eye on things across the open beaches.

This weekend (Aug 19-20)

A strong frontal progression pushing into the Tasman Sea late Friday will set up a decent SW flow exiting eastern Bass Strait.

Although this change looks respectable on paper - we’ll see fresh SW winds extending as far north as New Caledonia by early Sunday (see below) - the synoptic flow will be disjointed through the lower Tasman Sea and into the Southern Ocean, which will limit its swell generating potential for NSW.

Although it usually goes without saying that these kinds of systems are poor swell producers for SE Qld, the models do show a small captured fetch extending north-east from Bass Strait on Saturday, and we may pick up a brief spread of S'ly swell into Sunday north of the border.

But, we're getting ahead of things.

To backtrack a little: the same south swell will push across Southern NSW on Saturday morning, reaching the lower Mid North Coast late in the day, and providing 3-4ft sets to south swell magnets - though they'll be bumpy under the accompanying S/SE breeze (elsewhere it'll be much smaler due to the acute direction).

Backtracking a little more, and early Saturday morning will see a small mix of leftover swells in Northern NSW (tiny in SE Qld) with temporary W/SW winds. I'm not expecting Friday's N'ly windswell to hold out into the weekend.

Sunday will see an early peak in S'ly swell across Northern NSW in the 3-4ft range at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere), easing through the day (delayed in the Far North), and although this swell will probably bypass most SE Qld beaches, exposed northern ends and south swell magnets may see occasional 2ft+ sets.

Conditions look nice and clean with light morning offshore winds swinging into a moderate S/SE breeze into the afternoon. So, Sunday looks like a worthwhile window to be scouting for surf.

Next week (Aug 21 onwards)

The weekend’s broadscale frontal progression will slow near New Zealand and form a cut off low by Monday. Early indications are that it’ll probably remain aligned outside of our swell window, but we’ll keep an eye on it for next week’s surf potential.

Otherwise, with out eastern swell window remaining quite for a while, the next round of southerly swell for Northern NSW looks to originate from another front exiting eastern Bass Strait around Tuesday night (producing a small mid-week pulse).

This front looks to be tied in with a powerful but poorly aligned Southern Ocean low that - as a minimum - should continue to supply small long period southerly swell through the back half of next week.

However, no major swells are otherwise showing on the radar.

See you Friday!