South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 14th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Increase in S swells Tues with S-SE winds in NENSW, NW in SEQLD
• Quality S/SE swell Wed, holding Thurs AM before easing, small leftovers Fri with flukey light SE winds Wed, tending N’ly Thurs
• Winds shifting NW-W Fri as front pushes through
• Possibly small NE windswell Thurs PM, Fri AM, favouring Yamba to Coffs
• Late kick in S swell Sat, building strongly into Sun with SW-S winds
• Easing S swells Mon with light winds
• Small, flukey swells on the menu for next week

Recap

Small S swell on Sat topped out around 3ft+ at a few select NENSW S swell magnets with most spots 2ft or less and smaller 1-2ft at the best SEQLD swell magnets. Conditions were premium early under light offshore winds which tended NW-N during the day. Not much surf Sunday with small leftovers to 1-2ft tops in NENSW, smaller 1-1.5ft in SEQLD. Tiny surf has persisted in SEQLD to start the week with a small S swell pulse offering up some 2-3ft surf at NENSW S swell magnets. Light/variable winds are now tending NW-N.

A few workable S swell lines on the MNC, not much elsewhere

This week (Aug 14-18)

We’ve got a weak, troughy pattern unfolding now adjacent to the NSW Coast in the near Tasman Sea that will provide plenty of wind changes this week. A low pressure system near the South Island reached maximum strength last night and is now slowly easing, but still looking good on ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes with S’ly strong winds to gales aimed up the Tasman pipe. That will be our main source of swell this week. A frontal system forming in the Tasman Fri into the weekend now looks much more of standard system compared to Fri but will still produce a chunky S swell later on the weekend. Read on for details.

Nicely structured low provides S-S/SE swell this week

In the short run and we’ll see high pressure track NE into the NSW interior with a trough line expected to stall out somewhere around the QLD border. That will bring S’ly winds (SW early) to NENSW, with NW winds through SEQLD. The Gold Coast is likely to see the S’ly change poke it’s head north of the border with areas north of Cape Moreton much less likely. Small S’ly swells supply some 2ft surf at S exposed breaks in NENSW, remaining tiny in SEQLD. We’ll see new S swell show across the MNC to Byron later in the a’noon with some 3ft sets.

S-S/SE swell peaks Wed, with swell to 3ft+  and the odd 4ft set around at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft at SEQLD S facing beaches and a slow easing trend by nightfall. We should see light SW winds inshore early across most of the region, more S-S/SE on the Sunshine Coast before winds swing SE then NE in the a’noon. Not the best wind outlook but there should be some clean options around in the morning.

A trough and front approach on Thurs with winds freshening from the NW-N. Leftovers from the S/SE will supply a few fun waves in the 2-3ft range easing back further during the day. We’ll likely see some NE windswell develop to 2ft across the MNC to Yamba region, with smaller surf elsewhere.

Small leftovers Fri to end the working week but groomed by mod offshore winds as the front steams into the Tasman. Expect a few clean 2ft+ waves at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 1ft in SEQLD at swell magnets. Small amounts of NE windswell from retreating N’ly winds in the Tasman should provide a few small sidewinders in the 1-2ft range.

This weekend (Aug 19-20)

Moderate strength cold front pushing NE into the Tasman Sat should see a mod/fresh W’ly flow tend W/SW through the a’noon. Small leftovers to 2ft through the morning are expected. We may see a late kick in new S swell, more likely on the MNC to Yamba, with size building to 2-3ft in the a’noon. We’ll finesse size and timing on Wed.

Cold front brings SW winds and a S swell late Sat into Sun

A secondary front Sun and the northwards movement of the primary front maintains a mod/fresh SW flow with winds expected to tend more S’ly in the a’noon. Strong but raw S swell to 3-5ft is expected across NENSW with the head of the fetch being in sub-tropical latitudes we should see S facing beaches in SEQLD reach 3ft during the day.

Next week (Aug 21 onwards)

Compared to Friday's notes where the front was expected to spawn a major low in the Tasman, it now looks like the front will quickly move away, with high pressure moving off the Central NSW Coast early next week.

That should see easing but clean S swell to 3ft or so and light winds tending NE in the a’noon.

Surf then eases further into Tues with NE winds establishing.

Swell sources look sketchy through next week.

We may see some small E/NE trade-wind swell develop mid week from winds through the Southern Coral Sea although nothing major as high pressure looks weak. We’ll see how it looks when we come back Wed.

Frontal activity well to the south of the continent supplies traces of long period S swell wrap but we’re looking at marginal and flukey swells, possibly supplying some 2-3ft sets to reliable S swell magnets in NENSW Thurs/Fri. Most beaches look to be tiny from mid week from that source.

Hopefully we’ll see one more major swell before this Winter ends.

Check back Wed for the latest.