South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 11th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor S swells Sat, tiny north of the border, with light tricky winds around trough
• Tiny surf Sun with a SW-S change (may stall around QLD border)
• Small mix of S swells Mon week with S-SE winds
• Increase in S swells Tues with S-SE winds
• Looking good for quality S/SE swell Wed peaking Thurs, easing Fri 
• Winds a problem- SE Wed, N’ly and freshening on Thurs
• Potential for sizey S swell late next weekend early week 21/8

Recap

A mixed bag yesterday punched above it’s weight with fun beachies mostly in the 3ft range and some quality 3-4ft peaks reported from the Tweed. Clean conditions early under offshore winds, which tended N’ly through the a’noon with easing swells. Winds have tended more NW-N and are freshening as a trough/front advances up the coast. Surf has eased into the 1-2ft range today after a very fun week of waves at the top end of f/cast expectations.

Still some fun beachies to end a week that has punched above it's weight

This weekend (Aug 12-13)

A tricky wind outlook weekend f/cast as a trough is expected to hover around the Far North Coast/QLD border. There’ll be variability around the trough line so expect some flukey winds around the Southern Gold Coast to Byron region. Further north we should see NW-N winds tomorrow and south of Byron we’ll see more of a W’ly flow with light/variable a’noon NE seabreezes. Not much size expected with small S swells to 2ft at NENSW S facing beaches and traces of leftover E swell in SEQLD under 2ft. Just enough for a grovel.

Another front/trough line approaches Sun, with W/NW-NW winds early north of Yamba, more SW down to the MNC with an early SW-S change spreading northwards and reaching the border by lunchtime. Possibly stalling out around Moreton Bay and leading to variable winds. Tiny surf throughout the region with the best swell magnets 1-2ft or less and marginal surf elsewhere. 

Next week (Aug 14 onwards)

Very tricky wind outlook for next week as a series of troughs linger about the NSW Coast with rapid wind changes on the cards. Keep tabs on local winds because they are likely to be flukey and changeable.

Monday will be a case in point.

We should see a lingering S’ly flow to start but a trough line near hovering around the border may see variable winds or developing NW-NE breezes through the day. Winds should be relatively light at any rate and there’ll be some small S swell to work with south of the border- up into the 2ft range as S swell form the front and some longer period swell trains make landfall. Tiny surf is expected in SEQLD.

S’ly winds look to re-establish Tues as the trough moves into the Tasman and high pressure approaches Tasmania, building a ridge up the coast. We should see a modest kick in new S swell through the day up into the 2-3ft range. We may also see some short range SE-E/SE swell in the mix if the trough moves off the North Coast and aims a local fetch back at the region. 

As mentioned on Wed the weekend’s front forms a low which looks to stall in the central/eastern Tasman Sun/Mon, and possibly linger near the South Island after that. The fetch now, isn’t quite so well aimed back at the East Coast but we’re still on track for a nice pulse of S-S/SE swell. Expect size to build into the 3-4ft range Wed, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD with S-SE winds. 

Winds should tend N’ly Thurs as high pressure moves NE over the region. Expect NW winds, tending to fresh N- NE breezes in the a’noon. Size should peak in the 4ft range Thurs morning, easing during the day.  We may even see an upgrqde in size if we get a slingshot fetch around the stalled low- check back Mon for updates.

Easing but workable swells Fri with morning size in the 2-3ft range likely to bottom out in the sub 2ft range later in the day and N’ly tending W’ly winds. Possibly generating some useful NE windswell  into Fri.

We’ll see a dynamic looking pattern later next week. An approaching front links up with an inland trough generating strong W’ly winds.  The system may form a deep low with gales in the Tasman next weekend. There’s still a lot of model divergence to get through so we’ll see revisions on Mon but under current modelling there is broad agreement on a major system in the lower Tasman, possibly tracking NE next weekend. This would suggest a solid S swell event late next weekend and early week 21/8.

Been a little while since a solid S swell so we’ll keep fingers crossed and see how it looks when we come back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!