South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 21st July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong though (generally) wind affected S'ly swell Sat, only small in SE Qld
• Light morning winds and strong E/SE swell Sun (biggest south from the Northern Rivers), easing Mon
• Mix of swells next week- short range SE swells building across SEQLD Mon-Wed
• S’ly swells favouring NENSW with long period swells late Wed/Thurs
• SE swells tending to E/SE tradewind swells later next week, favouring SEQLD with light winds 

Recap

Pumping surf yesterday across NENSW with solid 5-6ft sets, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD although a few swell magnets saw 4ft+ set. Conditions were primo for a good portion of the day under a light offshore flow before light/variable breezes kicked in for the a’noon. Today has settled down a lot with more inconsistent 3-4ft sets, clean under a light offshore breeze expected to tend light SW/S through the a’noon.

Nice big blue teepees as S/SE swell peaked yesterday 

This weekend (July 22-23)

Few tweaks to the weekend f/cast. Fridays S’ly change is linked to a robust front (and long angular trough of low pressure in the Tasman) and the northwards intrusion into the Tasman will bring plenty of directional S swell- up into the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. Expect an under-sized start with 2-3ft surf across NENSW, tiny in SEQLD with a building trend from mid morning extending northwards through the day. Mod fresh SW/S winds will be a factor although there is likely to be a window of cleaner conditions through the morning before mod/fresh S’lies establish through the a’noon. Small peelers on the Points will be an option once the wind kicks in but don’t expect much size with the steep S’ly swell direction. 

The bulk of the E/SE energy from a well aimed fetch out of Cook Strait and extending back into the Tasman will be in the water Sun. It’s still looking good for sets in the 4ft range especially along the MNC, along with plenty of S’ly swell energy at roughly similar sizes.  Smaller 2-3ft surf is expected in SEQLD. The improved swell direction should see a few more options open up at more sheltered locations. The S’ly flow looks a bit niggly through the day as a large high in the Bight starts to build a ridge along the coast, likely tending mod S-SE through the a’noon. Definitely better conditions through the morning with a morning SW breeze across most of the region.

Next week (July 24 onwards)

We’re still looking at a complex, dynamic week with a strong high moving across from the Bight and a coastal trough moving up the Eastern Seaboard expected to form a broad surface low off the Fraser/K’gari coast. Early stages of that pattern will maintain a fresh S-SE flow on Mon, with another front seeing a more S-S/SE flow Tues. So local winds will be a factor to start the week and will confine most surfing to protected Points, especially in SEQLD (we should see lighter winds south of Yamba).

There’ll be plenty of residual E/SE swell and some S-S/SE swell in the water Mon as the fetch lingers near the South Island as well as building SE swells from local winds feeding into the surface low- all told holding surf in the 4ft range at least, with the Sunshine Coast expected to see bigger local SE swells to 4-6ft.

Similar sized surf for Tues, in SEQLD, with an easing trend in play for NENSW as the broad surface low moves north,, dragging the SE fetch with it. At least 4ft of surf dominated by SE swells on the Gold Coast, a notch bigger on the Sunshine Coast with 3-4ft surf from Byron-Yamba, easing in size south to the MNC.

Mid week should see winds easing, across the MNC, extending north through Thurs as high pressure moves up over the area. SEQLD will see continuing but slowly easing SE winds as the ridge slowly weakens.  A really powerful front and parent low steams into the lower Tasman and storm force winds as it moves under Tasmania will supply long period S’ly groundswell wrap which should arrive late Wed under current timing. With favourable winds S swell magnets could see sets in the 3-4ft range at NENSW S swell magnets. SEQLD will see SE-E/SE swells trending more to tradewind type swells through this period. 

Further ahead looks like settled conditions with light winds later next week and into the weekend, possibly with winds tending offshore as frontal activity sweep up over the region. More frontal activity in the lower Tasman suggests small S’ly pulses during that period, favouring NENSW along with some small tradewind surf favouring SEQLD. We’ll have a fresh look at size and timing when we come back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!