South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 14th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Peaky tradewind swell developing this weekend and extending into next week, favouring SEQLD for most size
• Light morning winds on the weekend, tending N-NE Sat, SE on Sun
• Winds tending SE early next week in QLD, lighter in NENSW
• Another round of small S swell pulses likely later next week not much showing north of the border

Recap

Fun S swell yesterday saw some 3ft sets across NENSW, smaller 1-2ft (tops) in SEQLD with mostly tiny surf away from reliable S swell magnets. Conditions were clean under light winds, tending SE in the a’noon. Small surf across the region today, just a leftover mix in NENSW to 1-2ft max, similar size on the Gold Coast. The Sunshine Coast is starting to pick up some E’ly tradewind swell with a few peaky 2ft options on hand.

Peaky E'ly swell already starting to show on the Sunshine Coast

This weekend (July 15-16)

No change to the weekend f/cast. Blocking high pressure in the Central Tasman has a ridge up the QLD Coast, with weak pressure gradients across NENSW leading to pre-frontal N’ly winds. 

Expect W-NW winds Sat morning tending N’ly through the day.

Sunday sees early W’lies shift SW, then light SE-NE as a weak change and ridge pushes through in the a’noon.

The blocking high has established quite a healthy trade flow through the Northern down to Central Coral Sea and extending out to New Caledonia. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a broad coverage of 20kt+ winds through this zone with CQ observations confirming 3ft surf.

Expect surf to build into the 2-3ft range on the Sunshine Coast Sat, bigger 3ft on Sun.

The Gold Coast down to Tweed-Byron should see similarly sized surf, with a slight lag and we’ll see a slow roll-off in size with S’ly latitude. Areas from Yamba to Coffs should still see some workable 2ft surf through Sun after an under-sized Sat.

All in all, there should be some peaky, fun tradewind swell to work with, favouring SEQLD for size.

Next week (July 17 onwards)

High pressure slips East of Sydney on Mon, reinforcing the ridge and trade flow in the Coral Sea. 

We should see SE winds north of the border Mon and Tues, tending more light/variable the further into NENSW you go. 

Fun, peaky tradewind swell should hold 3ft surf across SEQLD and into NENSW, a notch smaller south of Yamba. Nothing amazing but a nice treat for mid July.

We’ll see some rapid wind shifts mid week as a front races through the Tasman, bringing S’lies Wed, likely tending SSE-SE as a high pressure ridge quickly builds in the wake of the front. Wave models aren’t really interested in much swell action resulting from this front.

We’ll take the cool option and keep expectations low, with a minor increase in S swell possible Wed into Thurs. Topping out at 2-3ft again at S facing beaches. Hopefully we might be able to provide a modest upgrade when we come back on Mon.

Otherwise, we’ll see declining tradewind swell from mid week, likely dropping down to 2ft or so Thurs then further into Fri and the weekend.

Surf retreats back to tiny levels over the weekend- with just minor E/NE swell likely to keep wave heights above flat. Another approaching low below the continent later next week is better aimed for the Southern States and likely to dissipate and be steered southwards as it approaches the Tasman Sea swell window. Only minor S swell is likely to make it around the corner.

Not much to get frothed up about, unfortunately. At leat we have a round of fun tradewind swell ahead to surf.

Check back Mon and we’ll see if anything has changed.

Until then, have a great weekend!