South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 10th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Typical winter week ahead with small S swell pulses due Mon/Tues and Wed PM/Thurs, favouring NENSW for size, mostly tiny in SEQLD
• Peaky tradewind swell developing this weekend and extending into next week
• Possible low pressure in the Tasman later next week, low confidence now, check back Wed for latest update

Recap

Small waves over the weekend with Sat seeing mostly 2ft surf at S facing beaches in NENSW with a few of the better S swell magnets topping out at 2-3ft. W winds tended W/NW then mod NW-N before  W’ly winds kicked in o/night Sat. Sun was smaller, 1-2ft at better S swell magnets, 1ft or less elsewhere with fresh W’lies. Swell picked up overnight with today seeing 3ft of S swell, bigger 4ft at select S swell magnets and small 2ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD, groomed by offshore winds.

A few small S swell lines creeping up to the border

This week (Jul 10-14)

Another week begins with a classic winter El Niño pattern. High pressure over the continent with a W’ly flow being enhanced by a series of mobile fronts and parent lows, sending small S swell pulses our way. Nothing of any size its expected due to the zonal and mobile nature of the fetches so you’ll need to find a swell magnet. Later in the week the high moves into the Tasman at roughly sub-tropical latitudes, maintaining settled conditions across most of NSW, with a reasonable ridge up the QLD Coast and some small, peaky tradewind swell developing.

In the short run we should see todays S swell size hold into tomorrow, with 2-3ft of S swell at S facing beaches , smaller 2ft  at the best SEQLD S swell magnets. Light morning W’ly winds will tend to variable breezes in the a’noon- SE south of the border , more NE in SEQLD.

High pressure will approach the east coast on Wed, with morning land breezes tending light/variable before light/mod SE breezes kick up in the a’noon. We’ll see another small pulse of S swell lateWed from the passage of todays front and low across the Tasman. Again, not much size in it, back up to 2-3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW (tops), just showing in the 1-2ft range at SEQLD S facing beaches . Otherwise, remaining tiny/flat at most breaks north of the border.

By Thurs and into the end of the week we’ll see high pressure slip out into the Tasman with a light S-SE flow developing under a weak ridge. Winds should remain W-NW early under light pressure gradients. Unfortunately, not much surf is expected. Wed’s small pulse holds through Thurs before easing with a few 2ft sets possible at S swell magnets through the day, favouring NENSW and mostly tiny in SEQLD..

Fri should see a slight bump in small, longer period S swell but topping out with 2ft sets again at S swell magnets. Keep expectations pegged appropriately low and you might find a fun wave at magnets in NENSW. 

This weekend (July 15-16)

Nothing much to get excited about for the weekend but we should see some small workable E’ly tradewind swell start to develop over the weekend. Winds should tend NW to N Sat with a’noon Nor’easters as another front approaches, before switching S-SE on Sunday as it traverses the Tasman and the leading edge of trough pushes through. The front has another zonal fetch not generating much in the way of S swell.

Tradewinds developing in the Coral Sea over the weekend should start to generate small E/NE swells, likely 1-2ft Sat, building a notch into the 2ft range Sun, favouring the Sunshine Coast. 

Small traces of S swell Sat may supply some rideable 1-2ft sets in NENSW, but it’ll be tiny elsewhere from that source.

Next week (July 17 onwards)

Small surf looks to extend into next week. GFS has a weak front pushing into the Tasman which may offer a minor S swell Mon. EC has the front being pushed well to the south by a weak, blocking high pressure cell. A high pressure surge may see increased SE winds Mon with a small increase in local SE swell, adding to the small tradewind swell signal.

High pressure and angled low pressure trough sliding down from Vanuatu to Fiji produces a strong trade flow through the South Pacific Islands, with the edge of that fetch in the Coral Sea supplying small tradewind swell for SEQLD through to mid next week.

Longer term and EC is modelling a potential trough of low pressure in the Tasman later next week which may have some good swell potential. So far, no other models are interested.

Let’s see how Wed is shaping up, hopefully with something juicier on the radar to talk about.