South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 27th March)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small, long range E swell supplies inconsistent but fun sets Mon-Wed
• Small long range S swell in the mix Mon, slowly easing Tues
• More small S swell pulses Wed and Fri
• W-NW winds Tues/Wed AM before N’lies develop, fresh on Wed
• NW winds Thurs, tending W and a possible S’ly change 
• Another small, clean weekend ahead
• More troughy, unstable synoptics next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

A small, clean weekend of waves with Sat seeing mostly 2ft surf with the odd bigger set in NENSW and light winds. Sun was a notch smaller in the 1-2ft range with a late kick into the 2ft range. Today has seen some bigger 3ft sets, a mix of long range E and S swells supplying really nice beachbreaks across the region under light morning land breezes, now tending light/mod N. 

More energy in the water today

This week (Mar 27-31)

Models have chopped and changed over the weekend as we expected with the troughy pattern on offer but we’ve got reasonable agreement now on the path ahead. A complex series of inland troughs are approaching from the interior dragging moist, unstable air down from the tropics. Weak, mobile high pressure in the Tasman gets reinforced by another rapidly weakening low well to the south of Tasmania tomorrow. A small trough of low pressure off the Gippsland coast is replaced by another trough system later in the week. Far to the south of this hot, soupy mess a series of stronger polar lows are traversing the Far Southern Ocean sending small long period S swell trains our way. 

In the short run and winds look reasonable tomorrow as the trough off the Gippsland coast moves SE and a variable to NW-W/NW flow sets in for the morning before tending NNW-N in the a’noon. The same mix of long range E and swells will supply more inconsistent but well shaped 2-3ft surf with pulsey tendencies. 

We should see a freshening NW-N flow Wed, as the inland trough system approaches and the Gippsland trough deepens and moves south. Early winds still look OK, light W-NW but some northerly scarring is likely from the day before. Longer period S swell in the mix supplies 2-3ft sets at reliable S facing beaches in NENSW, with continuing long range E swell on a slow wane supplying very inconsistent 2ft+ sets. 

The tail end of the working week will see small S swells. More long-ish period S swell Thurs with N’ly winds tending NW-W in the a’noon with a possible later S-SE change. The S’ly change in temperate areas sees SW winds out of Bass Strait and pushing up past Tasmania. Not a great deal to these fetches but we should see S facing beaches pop up to 2-3ft during Fri from this source.

Winds ease Fri with land breezes highly likely (W-SW) though the morning before tending  SSE-SE through the day. Along with the short period S swell to 2-3ft, we should see some flukey SSE swell from a fetch between the ice shelf and the South Island. Models weakened the windspeeds in the fetch so periods are more modest now than Fridays notes indicated but we should still see some inconsistent 2ft sets through the day. Winds tend light SE through the a’noon, producing another day of small, fun waves for this Autumn which has yet to really fire up. 

This weekend (Apr 1-2)

Not a great deal of action ahead this weekend. Looks like another weekend of small, clean surf.  There’ll be a trough of low pressure in the Tasman, with S’ly winds on the western flank which will supply small S swell with a S flow along the coast.  That should see light/mod S-SSE winds Sat with a small blend of S swells 2-3ft or less. Biggest at NENSW S facing beaches in the 3ft+ range but wind affected.

We should more of the same Sun as winds increase around the W and SW flank of the low, offset by the low moving away. Expect 2ft surf building into the 2-3ft range during the day at NENSW S exposed breaks. Light winds early will tend light SSE- SE as a high pressure ridge builds along the coast.

Next week (Apr 3 onwards)

Next week looks like straight onshore wind to deal with, at least for the first day of the week as a strong high pressure belt moves below the Bight and feeds into a coastal trough. 

We’ll pencil in a fresh onshore flow for Mon under current modelling. 

E’ly winds feeding into the trough produce short range swells from that quadrant, pushing up into the 3-4ft range as a minimum.

We may see a trough then move offshore and possibly form a small, closed low Tues or Wed bringing offshore winds and a potential return S swell if the low moves offshore. It’s another, unstable troughy pattern with poor model to model and run to run consistency.

We’ll have to see how it shapes up before making any preliminary calls, so check back Wed and we’ll run the ruler over it.