Long run of swell from a solitary Tasman Low

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wed 14th Dec)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Fun waves Thurs with a small building E'ly swell and reasonably good winds (best prospects in Northern NSW)
  • Building E'ly swell Fri, peaking early Sat, easing thereafter, but showing best across SE Qld
  • Large, windy south swell building Fri in Northern NSW, holding Sat/Sun/Mon, easing from Tues
  • Smaller surf Wed onwards with light winds

Recap

Small swells have padded out the last few day, Tuesday seeing mainly leftover short range energy whilst today saw the arrival of both a small south and east swell, though mainly across Northern NSW. Winds haven't been too strong so conditions have been workable.

This week (Dec 15 - 16)

The main synoptic feature for the short term period is a developing complex Tasman Low that'll spin up east of Bass Strait overnight, and reach peak intensity on Friday, but actually remain active within our swell window until next Wednesday.

That's right, we're looking at a week of waves from a single swell source.

However, Thursday will see smaller swells from a predominately different source. I've been discussing a sub-tropical low south of Fiji for the last week or so, and it's generated a nice E'ly groundswell that will build slowly through Thursday and Friday towards a Saturday peak, but only Thursday will allow this swell - albeit on the smaller, upwards phase of the event - to be properly seen across the coast in relative isolation.

The models are currently undercalling this event (just 1-2ft); I think we'll see early 2-3ft sets out of the east however I am a little cautious on SE Qld's size prospects as it appears that the building E'ly we've seen today has been focused towards Northern NSW. So keep your expectations in check north of the border.

In any case, winds may be a little funky, as a weak ridge pushes in behind a trough just to our north-east. This will steer SE winds around to the E, though they should be light enough to allow for light morning offshores (more likely on the Gold Coast than Sunshine Coast).

In Northern NSW, this E'ly swell should build from 2-3ft to 3-4ft throughout the day, but we'll also see some new S'ly swell pushing across the region through the day, of a similar size and trend. Conditions should be generally OK across much of the Mid North Coast and the Northern Rivers with a weak synoptic flow resulting in light variable winds and sea breezes.

Friday will then see the E'ly swell ramp up a little more, however it'll be overshadowed by a building S'ly swell that'll reach 4-6ft at south facing beaches throughout the day.

An early window of SW winds is possible across some regions - mainly in the north - ahead of developing southerly winds throughout the day. This will confine the best waves to sheltered southern ends and protected points.

SE Qld will pick up only small levels of S'ly swell on Friday, so we'll be relying on the E'ly swell here, which I still think will fall short of the projected size across Northern NSW. Let's peg wave heights in and around the 3-4ft mark for now (possibly undersized early morning), and expect very long breaks between sets, owing to the distant swell source. S'ly tending SE winds will favour the semi-exposed points.

This weekend (Dec 17 - 18)

The E'ly swell is expected to reach a peak on Saturday morning, around 4-5ft+ south of the border and 3-4ft+ across SE Qld, before easing steadily through the weekend. It'll be very inconsistent and best suited towards more exposed coasts than inner, sheltered points.

Regardless, the dominate energy all weekend will be out of the south (in Northern NSW, anyway), with 4-6ft surf expected both days. Fresh SW tending S'ly winds both days will once again favour regional points and protected southern ends.

I'm not initially expecting the S'ly swell to make much of an impact north of the border, especially with a decent E'ly swell in the water, but these priorities may switch on Sunday as the S'ly swell starts to overshadow the fading E'ly swell across SE Qld. Unfortunately, fresh S'ly winds throughout this period won't favour those exposed beaches picking up the most size, so most surfers will have to rely on the small abating E'ly energy at the semi-exposed points.

Next week (Dec 19 onwards)

The Tasman Low will remain active in our swell window up until Wednesday, and as it'll be positioned further east by this time, the resulting swell direction will be more S/SE, which should allow fore a little more size across the sheltered spots. As such we'll see surf all week from this system.

Fresh southerly winds on Monday will gradually ease on Tuesday to become light and variable Wednesday and Thursday before northerlies resume on Friday.

4-6ft surf at south facing beaches (south of Byron) Monday and perhaps early Tuesday should ease to 3-4ft by Wednesday and 2-3ft for Thursday, maybe even Friday if we're lucky.

North of the border can expect a similar swell trend, but with perhaps only half the size, with the upper end of this size range mainly across exposed northern ends and south facing beaches. The points will be smaller again (short version: make the most of Monday and Tuesday - it'll be open beaches Wed/Thurs).

See you Friday!

Comments

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 8:58am

Definitely pure E this morning and very Autumnal feeling with warm blue water and a cool offshore breeze.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 9:23am

It's been an absolute cracker start to summer down here weather wise.

Crisp, cool nights ideal for sleeping and so nice in the mornings. Like autumn and then the afternoons are divine.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 9:34am

Same here.

Feels like years since I've surfed small, fun beachies in blue water.

No one really bothering with it, can surf solo with no leggy.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 9:52am

Perfect!

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 9:52am

What are you Riding Steve ?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 9:58am

I've got this asymmetric epoxy fish thing, which flies in small, weak surf.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 10:02am

Sounds heavenly

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 10:27am

Growing up in QLD, whenever I see that blue, warm water, I have a Pavlovian response to it.

Whether it's 6ft cyclone surf or 1-2ft babyfood, I'm out there.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 10:31am

Haha, I know what you mean.

It's a special Aussie thing when you can see the shadow of your board on the white sand bottom while riding a wave. Btw, does Kirra have particularly turquoise water, or have I just struck it lucky there?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 10:36am

The whole of Coolangatta Bay usually gets flooded with a warm water eddy off the EAC during Summer, which means that iridescent blue water is usually there.

edit: absent flooding and Ekman transport episodes from strong N-NE winds.

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 2:13pm

It’s like that now - warm clear water…also a few fun 2fterz with the tide coming in.. few rip bowls have formed - happy days, 100 time better than yesterday

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 2:14pm

Hopefully we get a run of swell without floods or northerly’s…..

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 6:53pm

Thought the E swell was starting to show in Cooly this morning, but nothing has changed through the day. Still tiny

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 9:29pm

Surfed the last two mornings in boardies and it hasn't felt the least bit cool in the water and everyone else in the water has been in a short arm steamer or long arm spring.
WTF?

555ZZZ's picture
555ZZZ's picture
555ZZZ Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 9:58pm

Warmer in the water than out due to a cool dry wind causing evaporative cooling.
I went for a swim and it was cold when I got out of the water due to the wind from the South.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 7:54am

Swell is here in Cooly but lumpy and disorganised. Reckon it will straighten up?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 8:03am

Gurgly here too. Bit slow but the sets are there.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 9:47am

That storm hung over the GC for hours last night. Seems to have played havoc with the wind.

Banks are terrible on the GC points too

scrotina's picture
scrotina's picture
scrotina Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 12:18pm

this swell is very underwhelming on southern gc. disappointed.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 12:22pm

Filled in through the morning here, slow but bigger sets by the hour.
Stayed glassy/lumpy though.

Deffo some 4ft sets.

Warm, Bluewater.

EAC has been running so hard downhill it has ripped the Byron Buoy off it's moorings.