South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 2nd Dec)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Strong ESE swell peaking Fri/Sat with chunky surf favouring the Points
• Strong ESE swell gradually fades out Sun into Mon, and Tues with winds becoming light and beachies opening up
• Downgraded outlook for next week with small S swell Wed/Thurs, easing into next weekend
• Still a troughy/uncertain outlook so check back Mon for revisions

Recap

Swell built rapidly yesterday as a low pressure trough deepened off the Fraser Coast yesterday and formed a surface low through the day. Windspeeds were up on f/cast and we saw size build from 2-3ft to 4-5ft through the day, with fresh SE winds. Today has seen size mostly in the 5-6ft range with bigger 8ft surf at exposed breaks on the Gold Coast and Far Northern NSW. Interestingly, the low axis moved far enough south to see an offshore/sideshore flow across the Sunshine Coast which allowed some chunky beachbreaks in the 5-6ft range to be utilised. Plenty more surf to come from this slow moving low pressure system.

Bombs out the back, getting more manageable down the line

This weekend (Dec 3-4)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A slow moving low pressure system is currently off the QLD coast generating plenty of size for the subtropics. Windspeeds along the southern flank are just a notch higher than modelled on Wed so we’ve seen a corresponding uptick in size. 

We will see the low slowly move out to sea over the weekend with a slow and steady easing in local winds as pressure gradients ease.

Saturday will still be very solid with size to 6ft+ across most of the region, grading a little smaller on the Sunshine Coast and filling in across the Mid North Coast through the morning. Size will grade smaller into more sheltered Points with the E/SE swell direction. A pretty typical day favouring the QLD Points for size and quality. 

Just a slight and slow roll-off in size is expected Sun, offset by lighter winds and a possible morning land breeze (more likely SW). Still plenty of size and quality favouring the Points with sets to 4-6ft, grading smaller by a notch during the a’noon. Again, expect size to diminish as you head into more sheltered inner Points and Bays.

Next week (Dec 5 onwards)

Tricky looking outlook for next week as models struggle to resolve small areas of low pressure which bud off the monsoon trough line and linger off the QLD coast, possibly drifting down into the Northern Tasman. So, don’t be surprised to see some serious revision on Mon if one of these areas of troughy low pressure decides to fire up.

Given that, Mon is looking good. Plenty of residual E-ESE swell will be on offer as the low slowly drifts E with size still in the 4-5ft range. The better news is with local pressure gradients slackening we should see more options opening up across the beaches as morning offshore winds clean up inshore conditions. Through the a’noon winds should tend more SE north of the border, E to E/NE south of Byron.

 A trough pushing up the coast may deliver a late S’ly change Tues- more likely south of Ballina. Otherwise we’ll see a light morning land breeze tending to mod N’lies through the day. Expect continuing small fun levels of E/NE swell in the 3ft range Tues as the Coral Sea low lingers and maintains a weakening fetch with an easing trend in the a’noon.

By Wed the trough, connected to a low pushing E of Tasmania is expected to generate stronger S-SE winds. Models have downgraded this system compared to Wed, as the remnants of a low from the Coral Sea no longer merge with it. 

Wed and Thurs now look more like bog standard small S swell as the low E of Tasmania generates a mostly SW fetch into the Tasman (see below). Expect S swell Wed in the 3ft range, smaller north of the border  with winds expected to ease and tend variable/onshore in a weak pressure gradient synoptic environment by Thurs. 

Current modelling shows the low slowly migrating through the lower Tasman, likely holding a small signal of S swell through the end of next week with a weak high in the Tasman suggesting moderate onshore N’ly winds through this period.

As mentioned though, with so much instability across the Southern Coral Sea and Northern Tasman confidence is low at medium range so expect revisions on Mon. 

Check back then for the latest update and have a great weekend!