South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 14th Oct)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Plenty of solid but inconsistent E’ly swell slowly easing over the weekend with light winds 
• Small pulses of E-ESE swell continue into early next week
• E’ly tradewind swell starting to fill in at low levels by mid next week
• Another round of NE windswell, favouring the Mid North Coast from mid next week

Recap

Strong but inconsistent  E’ly was in the water yesterday with sets topping out around 4-5ft. Conditions were clean early before light/mod E to E/NE’ly winds took the gloss off it. Today has seen surf of a similar size with a developing N to NE flow. There were some great waves on backbeaches and open beaches but the Points have been off limits due to N’ly winds. Overnight winds are expected to tend SW as a front pushes through. 

Still plenty of size on the sets this morning

This weekend (Oct 15-16)

No great changes expected for the weekend f/cast. W to SW winds in the wake of todays front and complex low fizzling out south of Tasmania extend into Sat morning before a weak ridge brings a light S/SE flow which quickly breaks down through the a’noon leaving a  weaker variable flow across the region. 

Surf-wise we’ll be on the gradual downslope of our extended E/NE swell event. Still expecting some chunky 3-5ft surf through the morning session albeit with longer waits for sets, grading smaller 4ft through the a’noon. Don’t be surprised if the tide swallows up some of that energy.

A light and variable (offshore) flow through the morning, tending to light a’noon sea breezes should allow for all day surfing Sunday. Be patient as 3-4ft sets become more widely spaced in time and slowly taper off through the day, likely tending more 2-3ft during the a’noon. All in all there should the plenty of fun waves, albeit inconsistent over the weekend. 

Next week (Oct 17 onwards)

Weak high pressure moves off the NSW Coast early next week with a troughy pattern expected. A trough induced E-NE flow Mon should remain fairly light and tail off quickly back to a light/variable flow in the a’noon.  Our incredibly persistent E swell is expected to still keep chugging away at low levels, throwing up inconsistent 3ft surf through Mon.

On current modelling we’re looking at another inland trough/low to approach the East Coast from interior NSW next week, tightening the pressure gradient with a high pressure system in the Tasman. 

That will see an extended period of N to NE winds and a fetch proximate to the Eastern Seaboard producing another round of NE windswell, likely with some sizey periods from the Mid North Coast southwards. Further north we’ll see small levels of E’ly tradewind swell start to fill in from Wed.

That pattern now looks to set up on Tues as light NE winds begin across the region.  Another low forms in the South Pacific over the weekend and dips quickly below the North Island but the initial E’ly fetch is expected to bump up E swell a notch into the 3ft range. There should be fun options at backbeaches Tues/Wed.

From Wed to the end of the week a freshening  NE flow is expected across the region as the inland low becomes slow moving (see below). There will be some fluctuations in the fetch which we will dial in on Mon but the basic pattern (which seems embedded this Spring) will see building levels of NE windswell Wed, likely into the 2-3ft range across the Mid North Coast and grading smaller towards the QLD border, where E’ly tradewind swell will slowly increase from Wed.

Usually these NE fetches are transitory but this one looks to stay put as the inland trough system stalls out, so we’ll be expecting NE windswell and NE winds to remain until the end of next week and possibly even extending into next weekend.

Surf is likely to fluctuate in the 2-3ft range through this period, as a ball park figure, with more NE windswell expected on the Mid North Coast.

We’ll finesse sizes and timing as we get closer to the event.

Check back Monday for the latest update and have a great weekend!