South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 7th Sep)

Forecast Summary (tl:dr)

• Last pulse of SSE groundswell Thurs, favouring NENSW, with light/mod N’lies developing- stronger on the MNC
• N’lies by the end of next week with a troughy pattern ahead
• Small surf this weekend- mostly small, weak tradewind swell
• S swell likely Tues/Wed next week but low confidence still on specifics, check back Fri for updates

Recap

Plenty of size in NENSW, with smaller surf in SEQLD since Mondays notes, as swell pulses from a Tasman low continue to make landfall. Yesterday saw chunky 3-4ft surf in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, more from the  SSE with some long period S swell in the mix (compared to Mondays more E-ESE pulse) and  clean under easing SW-S’ly winds. Today has seen a reinforcing pulse of SE swell which is elevated surf in the 4-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. Conditions are clean early under a W  flow, with light SE winds kicking up through the a’noon. All in all, another handy run of swell, especially South of the border. 

Peaky energy from the SE with La Nina signs hovering in the background

This week (Sep7-9)

The Tasman low is out of the swell window and a large high is now moving over Tasmania to take up position in the Tasman Sea at a southerly latitude typical of the high pressure belt under the La Niña phase of the ENSO cycle. The high will move E with a N’ly flow rapidly developing as pressure gradients get tightened by an approaching front, complex low and trough line.  That will dominate the rest of the week and weekend with the low moving out into the Tasman in conjunction with a series  of cold fronts early next week.

In the short run and NE winds will start to strengthen through tomorrow, so get in early for cleanest conditions, where a W’ly flow will be brief. A last pulse of long period SSE swell generated by a flare-up of he polar low as it passed well to the south of the South Island is expected to generate some inconsistent sets to 4ft, smaller 2-3ft  in SEQLD, making S exposed breaks well worthy of investigation. Expect increasing amounts of NE windswell to 2ft to develop through the a’noon on the Mid North Coast as a proximate fetch of NE strong breezes to high winds quickly whips up short period sidewinders. The fetch is located too far south to generate much surf north from Coffs.

Fri morning will see just a smattering of leftover SSE swell with sets to 3ft, smaller 2ft in SEQLD, easing during the day. N to NE winds are expected to be with us early and freshen during the day, bringing more typical Spring conditions, so you’ll need to find a friendly back-beach to get any sort of decent wave. 

This weekend (Sep10-11)

Still looking very quiet this weekend, surf wise. The frontal system and low will drive a mostly W’ly flow across the NENSW/SEQLD Coastline for the majority of the weekend so conditions are expected to be clean through the morning with light a’noon sea breezes.

Expect a small blend of leftovers swells from the E/NE and SSE, biggest Sat morning with some 2ft sets and holding through the da. Fun for learners and kids.

Similar size range Sun, with weak E/NE swell from a brief  patch of NE-E/NE winds towards New Caledonia supplying some 2ft surf with light winds, mostly offshore through the morning and a’noon sea breezes. Should be a pleasant day for some splash and giggle.

Next week (Sep 12 onwards)

Still a fair amount of model divergence happening which suggests more tweaks to the forecast for next week on Friday.

EC continues the stalled low, with a resultant W’ly flow maintaining through Tues, before a weak low forms in the troughy remnants of the weekends instability. That would suggest small surf Mon, with a small pulse of S swell late Tues from a passing front, before a couple of days of small SE swell as the low sits off southern NSW.

GFS is much more bullish, with a major front bringing a stiff S’y change Mon PM, and a chunky S swell for later Tues/Wed in the 3-4ft range at NENSW S facing beaches- much smaller in SEQLD- with S to SE winds. 

Looks like another round of NE winds towards the end of next week, with another mid-latitude low and trough approaching from the W. This period of instability and enhanced troughiness reduces confidence in even medium range forecasts, due to models struggling to resolve the extra dynamism in the atmosphere. 

Without any major swells on the radar for early next week, we’ll pencil in a S quadrant swell for Tues/Wed and see how it’s shaping up when we come back Friday.

Seeya then.