South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 2nd Sep)

Forecast Summary (tl:dr)

• Better (tho' still small) trade swell Fri/Sat
• Small E swell continues into Sat at fun levels with tricky wind outlook as low forms off North Coast
• Possible late kick in new SE swell Sat PM, depending on timing of low formation
• Much sizier S-SSE swell expected Sun as low with strong S’lies, better winds north of Byron
• Large S-SSE swell extends into Mon, easing through Tues
• Long period S groundswell Mon, easing into Tues/Wed next week
• Last pulse of SE swell Wed with light winds
• N’lies by the end of next week with a troughy pattern ahead, stay tuned for updates!

Recap

Small E’ly tradewind surf topped out around 2ft yesterday with light winds and a small amount of reinforcing S swell in NENSW. Today has seen a nice little uptick in size with sets to 3ft across most of he region and light/variable winds tending light E’ly through the a’noon. That will be the last of the settled conditions as a robust low forms off the North Coast overnight and into tomorrow. Details below. 

Nice little kick in E swell to end the week

This weekend (Sep3-4)

Complex and dynamic weekend ahead, with an upper trough, surface trough and front forming a surface low in the convergence zone off the North Coast. This low is expected to rapidly deepen through Sat.

We should see an early variable flow as the low starts to develop due east of the border Sat morning- likely offshore for most of the region as winds draw into the developing trough/low. An early NE/SE flow is possible in SEQLD, more likely on the Sunshine Coast. As the low winds up during the day we should see more of SW flow develop, although freshening SE winds are likely from Coffs southwards as the developing low and a cold front merge. It’s going to be a tricky day for winds, so keep tabs on local wind conditions.

Surf-wise, small E swell in the 2-3ft range will pad out most of the day. A late kick in new size to 3-4ft is highly likely as winds freshen into the low, although the timing of this is not set in stone, even at this late stage. 

Sun is a much better bet for solid surf with a very raggedy day expected for Dad’s Day. By dawn Sunday a deep low is expected to be due E of the Far North Coast and moving slowly E/SE towards Lord Howe Island (see below). Gales feeding into the low on the southern flank will be directly aimed at sub-tropical NSW, and, to a slightly lesser extent SEQLD, generating large swells. How big? Through NENSW, expect surf to rapidly climb Sun from 6ft into the 10ft range from the S/SE. There’ll be a brief period of of small surf in SEQLD, before a similar rise in size, up to 6-8ft, grading smaller into sheltered Points. 

With the position of the low there’ll be an inflection point for winds, with a W/SW to SW flow north of the inflection point, likely just north of Cape Byron and gale force S’lies below that point to the Mid North Coast. Only the most sheltered spots will be surfable Sun, and even most of those will be over-powered as the swell fills in. Best options in NENSW early, with QLD Points handling the size better.

Next week (Sep 5 onwards)

We’re still looking at plenty of size from the Tasman Sea low Mon, which is expected to slowly drift towards the North Island late Sun into Mon. A mod/fresh S’ly flow and 8-10ft of surf from the SSE-SE, grading smaller 6-8ft in SEQLD. Best surf at protected locations which will progressively become smaller into more protected Bays with N facing Points in the 3ft range. 

There’ll be some small long period S’ly swell in the water Mon, with a much more substantial pulse Tues, in the 4ft range, well down on what was expected Wed due to the deep polar low outbreak winding up a little further E (favouring California!) so we’re more exposed to sideband energy rather than the main course.  S/SE swell from the Tasman Sea low will still be the main swell source and that will be in the 6ft range in NENSW, smaller 3-5ft in SEQLD.

A morning offshore breeze will tend to light/mod SSE-SE winds through the day, so there will be clean options early although a bit of leftover bump and lump is likely at exposed spots. It’s likely to still be a Points-only deal on Tuesday.

Into the middle of next week and we’ll still have substantial swell from the SE, with winds extending out from the West Coast of the North island down to Cook Strait. High pressure moving E of Tasmania is expected to maintain a ridge- although weak and with a troughy boundary layer generating a light wind regime. Wednesday looks alright- with 3-4ft of SE swell and light winds. 

By the end off next week we’re looking at a freshening N’ly flow off the NSW Coast, strongest towards the South Coast, and into Bass Strait. That should see developing NE windswell through Thurs a’noon, surfable Fri (2-3ft) on the Mid North Coast and tiny north of Yamba with a light N to NW flow extending into Sat.

Looks like a series of fronts and possible lows by next weekend but we are back to our Old La Niña friend: the dynamic, troughy outlook in the Tasman Sea. That reduces confidence in the medium term outlook as models struggle to resolve the troughiness. With nothing concrete on the maps for now, we’ll come back Mon, with changes to report on no doubt.

In the mean-time have a great weekend, especially all the Dads out there!