South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 31st Aug)

Forecast Summary (tl:dr)

• Small E/NE swell continues into Thurs with light winds
• Better (tho' still small) trade swell Fri/Sat
• Slight kick in S swell Thurs for NENSW
• Much sizier S swell expected Sat/Sun as low forms off MNC with fresh S’ly winds
• Large S-SSE swell extends into Mon, easing through Tues
• Long period S groundswell Mon, easing into Tues/Wed next week

Recap

Small E/NE swells have persisted through yesterday and today, with mostly light winds. A few glassy 2footers have been on offer, slightly bigger today, with some nice peelers on the SEQLD Points. A much more dynamic period is ahead as a low forms off the Mid North Coast this weekend. Details below.

Glassy little peaks on offer while the Tweed Bar gets hoovered up in the background

This week (Aug 31-Sep 2)

No significant changes to the outlook. The current pattern- with weak high pressure drifting across Central NSW and a soft ridge along the coast- will be replaced in emphatic fashion by a much stronger front and trough on Friday, forming a surface low off the Mid North Coast, anchored by a monster high moving into the Bight at the same time. Well to the south of that set-up will be a deep polar low and associated fronts with severe gales to storm force winds generating long period S’ly swells to make landfall early next week.

In the short run the current S’ly change quickly runs out of steam tomorrow with the soft ridge seeing weak E-SE breezes establish in the a’noon (more E/NE on the Mid North Coast). Not much surf is expected, just a small signal of S swell in the 1-2ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW and easing through the day. A few small  E’ly swell trains generated by a distant tradewind fetch will supply some fun surf from that direction with size hovering around 2ft or less with a slight bump in size expected in the a’noon. 

Friday looks dynamic, at least for the southern half of the f/cast region.  A trough off the coast is activated by a strong front, with an early convergence zone around the mid north Coast likely to see W winds, tending variable up into SEQLD. S’lies should embrace the Mid North Coast during the a’noon with light winds extending into the evening for the Northern half of the f/cast region. E’ly trade-wind swell should kick up a notch or two with some 2-3ft sets expected. If you can work with the winds, easy north of Yamba, tricky on the Mid North Coast, there’ll be some fun waves to end the working week. 

This weekend (Sep3-4)

The trough deepens north of Lord Howe Island overnight Fri and into Sat (see below) with a surface low forming N of the Island. That will concentrate gales in the sub-tropics, with the biggest surf generated in our region, specifically NENSW.  

Low end gales develop offshore Sat, with inshore winds trending SW-SSW early, and freshening  before clocking around to the S.

Saturday will be a game of two halves. Through the morning, we’ll be surfing E’ly tradewind swell in the 2-3ft range as winds freshen. Through the a’noon, we’ll see a steep building trend in new S swell, which will quickly override the existing E swell. Expect size to ramp up quickly around lunch-time on the MNC, not long after on the North Coast and mid a’noon north of the border. Size will quickly get up into the 6-8ft range at S exposed breaks, smaller 3-5ft at S exposed breaks in SEQLD. We’ll finesse those numbers on Fri, as the proximity of the low means any small changes in windspeed and movement will have large impacts on near-shore surf heights.

Size increases into Sun morning, although there is still some model divergence on the position of the low, with EC holding the low further north, compared to GFS. Either way, we are looking at a very sizeable S swell with fresh S’ly winds confining surf to sheltered breaks. Open stretches will be up in the 10ft+ range through Sun, grading smaller into more sheltered Bays and Points. North facing points will be half that size or less but probably the only surfable options Sunday.

Next week (Sep 5 onwards)

Large surf will be with us to begin next week, as the surface low slowly moves E/SE through Sun with gales to severe gales on the western flank of the low. We’ll see an easing trend in winds, with a morning offshore component likely before winds tend light S to SE in the a’noon. Expect surf in the 6-8ft range through the morning (with a few bigger sets possible), easing through the day. Lighter winds may open up some of the more exposed breaks to the full size of the swell, otherwise expect smaller surf at more protected breaks.

Tues sees a mix of SSE to S swells. Swell from the Tasman low slowly eases through the day, with size to 6ft+ in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD. Also in the mix, we’ll see long period swell trains from the vast polar storm passing between Australia and New Zealand Fri-Sun. That will see 4-6ft sets at S exposed breaks with smaller surf at more sheltered breaks. Lighter winds are expected Tues, likely SW inshore early before tending light SE-ESE.

By mid next week we’ll be seeing easing swells from the South, although still plenty of juice available Wed, with expected size in the 4-6ft range, easing during the day. A high moving East of Tasmania should see a light offshore morning wind, with light E’lies in the a’noon. 

N’lies increase to end next week, with good odds for some workable NE windswell to end next week, more likely on the MNC. With another strong frontal progression looking likely to generate another round of S swell next weekend. Confidence is low this far out so lets see how it’s shaping up Fri.

More on that in Fridays f/cast. See you then.