South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 22nd June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Decent E/SE swell for Northern NSW Wed (smaller SE Qld)
• Solid, powerful long period E'ly groundswell late Wed/Thurs, easing Fri, clean with light winds
• Small clean leftovers Sat, becoming tiny Sun
• Small S swell pulse late Mon (MNC) Tues for rest of NENSW, remaining tiny in SEQLD
• Watching charts next week for possible low pressure development, stay tuned for updates

Recap

SE swell perked up nicely through Tuesday- especially in NENSW- with most places seeing clean 3ft surf under a morning offshore that lingered long into the day. SE QLD saw smaller surf in the 2ft range. A few spots over-achieved as longer period swell trains made landfall, with some 4ft sets reported. Size dipped a notch this morning with sets to 2ft across the board before an a’noon increase in new E/SE swell supplied some inconsistent sets to 3ft- a bit on the cool side of f/cast expectations but still fun. Clean conditions early were scuffed up by a S’ly breeze in the a’noon that was stronger on the MNC. 

Small but oh-so-clean this morning

This week (June 22-24)

A nice, wintry elongated high pressure belt is located over the interior, now drifting over most of NSW, bringing classic settled winter weather. Pristine days with light W’ly winds for the most part. The tropical low over the North Island has rotated out of the swell window, dissipating quickly as it did so. We’ve still got some fun, albeit downgraded, E’ly quadrant swell inbound from that source before a period of quiet surf becomes established over the weekend. 

No change to the short term f/cast. E’ly swell continues to fill on overnight and we’re still expecting sets in the 4-5ft range, with pristine conditions on offer. Bluebird skies and offshore winds which should blow from dawn to dusk.  A slight easing trend should be noticeable through the a’noon. All in all a nice day to get amongst it.

We’ll be more firmly on the downslope through Fri with size easing from an inconsistent 3-4ft early down to 3ft and slow by close of play. It’ll still be worth a paddle though under offshore winds and blue skies. 

This weekend (June 25-26)

Easing trend continues over the weekend. Glorious conditions are expected so it’ll be worth packing a groveller , log or mid-length to chase a go out, especially Sat, where a few remaining 2-3ft sets will be on offer through the morning under light offshore breezes that may tend to light and variable sea breezes later in the a’noon. By a’noon surf will be pretty small, under 2ft and unlikely to be short-boardable.

Sunday looks more of a classic babyfood day as swell retreats right back into the 1-2ft range or less. Close to flat on high tides. Ideal conditions will suit beginners and those looking for a gentle cruise. Light winds will tend to light SSE breezes in the a’noon.

Next week (June 27 onwards)

The pattern of weak, zonal (W-E) fronts which has been passing over the Tasman and SE of Australia over the weekend takes on a more active, meridional (N-S) aspect on Mon. 

With a high moving across Victoria behind it a front and small later Sun into Mon brings SW-S winds and a late a’noon increase in S swell across the MNC (see below). GFS is very much more bullish on this than EC model so a little caution is appropriate as swell models may be overcooking the size a notch. Nonetheless we’ll expect an a’noon increase in S swell, up to the 3-4ft range, possibly bigger. Most of the North Coast and SEQLD will stay tiny/flat all day Mon.

S swell peaks Tues with sets in the 3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, remaining tiny in SEQLD, easing during the day and favourable offshore winds as a high centre moves over the state. 

By the middle of next week we should see at temporary lull in the action before another round of S swell through Thurs/Fri. 

Models are still struggling to resolve a troughy, dynamic set-up in the Tasman and Coral Seas, so it’s likely we’ll see substantial revision before this period kicks off.

Another cold front pushing into the Tasman Wed, brings S swell Thurs/Fri. Lets call it 3-4ft at this stage and adjust as we get more model clarity.

The curve ball is a large troughy area of low pressure in the Coral Sea and another interior trough on the North QLD coast next week. At this stage it is likely to impact sub-tropical areas as trade-flows south of the trough perk up, although we still have a great deal of uncertainty over how far south these winds will extend. 

There’s still some possibility that the trough could extend down into Southern NSW and form a surface low into the first weekend of July although models have cooled on that scenario, so we’ll keep eyes on that possibility.

The instability does signal strong possibilities of low pressure development- possibly an ECL - in this coming period.

Check back Fri and see how it’s shaping up.