South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 17th June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Solid S/SE groundswell throughout Northern NSW on Saturday, easing slowly Sunday
• Only small in SE Qld (away from south swell magnets)
• Generally S'ly winds, lighter SW in a few spots early mornings
• Temp smaller surf Monday
• Fun SE pulse for the MNC Tues
• Decent E/SE swell for Northern NSW Wed (smaller SE Qld)
• Large, powerful long period E'ly groundswell late Wed/Thurs, easing Fri, clean with light winds

Recap

Northern NSW saw a nice round of S’ly swell on Thursday with 4-5ft sets reported at south facing beaches, and clean conditions under light breezes. Size pegged back a little this morning but has boosted across the Mid North Coast from late afternoon with a long period S/SE groundswell, sourced from an impressive polar low at the tail end of our extended Southern Gyre. South facing beaches have shown 5-6ft sets here (even bigger waves reported in Southern NSW) and the swell energy is now starting to push further into Northern NSW. Winds have been light again with clean conditions. As for SE Qld, Thursday’s S’ly swell bypassed most breaks but delivered occasional 3ft+ sets to exposed northern ends (see photo of Narrowneck from 11am, below). Today saw a little less size though south facing beaches still managed to reach 2-3ft at times. The points have been very small and inconsistent though there have been occasional peelers. 

Narrowneck, mid-morning Thursday - not bad for a south swell!

New S/SE groundswell lines starting to show at Yamba this afternoon

This weekend (June 18-19)

No major changes to the weekend’s trend outlook, though wave heights have been nudged up a little given the size and strength seen across the southern half of the state today. 

Southern NSW its a useful proxy for Northern NSW under most swell scenarios, however the source fetch for this energy is slightly inside the shadow of New Zealand’s South Island, so confidence decreases a little once you head north of about Coffs Harbour. And anywhere north of Point Danger becomes even more problematic thanks to the tricky alignment. 

Nevertheless, we’re looking at a whole day of strong S/SE groundswell in the 4-6ft range south of the border, at beaches with good southerly exposure (smaller elsewhere). A very slow easing trend is then expected throughout Sunday, so it’ll still be chunky at exposed spots in the morning.

Saturday’s early winds should be light SW but we’ll see freshening southerlies through the day thanks to a small low off the Southern NSW Coast today that's pushing north, plus a strengthening ridge across the broader region on Saturday. This will confine the best waves to the points and sheltered southern ends. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday as the ridge persists; early lighter SW breezes are possible again in some spots.

North of the border, and as per usual under any kind of southerly swell, we’ll see significantly less size.

Saturday morning looks the pick as winds should be at least light SW to begin with, which will favour exposed northern ends and south swell magnets that could pick up 3-4ft sets. But most open beaches and points will be very small. The same swell trend as per Northern NSW will pad out Sunday, gradually easing, with probably a slimmer chance of an early morning light SW breeze (more chance on the Gold Coast than the Sunshine Coast). 

So, expect patchy offerings in SE Qld this weekend, otherwise make the most of Saturday’s energy south of the border. 

Next week (June 13 onwards)

A broad region of troughiness stretching from the Tasman Sea through the Coral Sea over the weekend will coalesce into a major sub-tropical low off New Zealand’s North Island, on Monday. 

Prior to the resulting easterly swell from the primary fetch, we’ll see a small SE swell fill in on Tuesday - mainly across the Mid North Coast - originating from a feeder SE fetch spinning off a conveyer belt of polar lows/fronts below New Zealand over the coming days. Possible 3-4ft sets are on the cards for beaches with good southerly exposure, south of Coffs.

Monday will largely fall between swells with inconsistent 2-3ft+ leftovers at south facing beaches south of the border and a smaller mix of refracted groundswell and minor sideband trade swell throughout SE Qld. The start of the week will be the last day of the local southerly breezes too, so in general keep your expectations low, there will be much better waves on the way.

Tuesday’s mid-range SE swell won’t really show with any strength north from about Coffs or Yamba, so Wednesday is likely to be the day where we see a broad range of quality surf across the whole region. This will be sourced from a secondary E/SE fetch exiting eastern Cook Strait (on Monday, see below) and size should reach 4-5ft at most open beaches south of the border, 3ft+ across SE Qld (smaller on the points). I’m not confident that Wednesday's new swell will be at all coasts early morning, so if you’ve got a limited window to surf, aim for the afternoon. 

Conditions look pretty good both Tuesday and Wednesday with light winds and sea breezes.

The primary fetch north of New Zealand will strengthen rapidly from Monday thru’ Tuesday before slowly rotating out of our swell window by Wednesday morning. Core wind strengths are expected to be very strong - upwards of 50kts - which will translate to large swell periods in the 16-18 second range, an uncommon characteristic for easterly swells in this neck of the woods.

What does this mean? Well, most breaks throughout SE Qld and Northern NSW are ‘conditioned’ for low/mid period swells, so sizeable, long period events like this tend to favour a smaller number of breaks - it’s not in any way suitable for beach breaks, and many reefs will be overpowered. Expect to do plenty of driving looking for somewhere handling the size and energy. 

Anyway, from later Wednesday through Thursday we’ll see a couple of overlapping easterly groundswells that could push as high as 8ft+ at exposed locations, though we’ll see the upper end of this size range across Far Northern NSW, with slightly smaller surf at remaining coasts (say, 6-8ft) and smaller surf along the protected points. Wave heights will then trend down through Friday, though the early session will still be pretty sizeable.

Conditions look great each day with generally light variable winds and sea breezes. A slight NW trend is possible later in the week. 

Long term suggests a spell of smaller waves from next weekend into the following week. But there’s a lot of quality surf to happen between now and then. 

See you Monday!