South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 15th June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Pulse of S swell Thurs, favouring NENSW for size, with offshore winds
• Low point Fri
• Long range SSE groundswell Sat, easing into Sun with SW/S winds
• Short range SE swell builds Mon, peaks Tues
• Better quality E/SE groundswell fills in Wed, holds Thurs and eases Fri, stay tuned for updates

Recap

The long tail on the current S swell event has supplied plenty of good and still sizey waves since Mon. There were still plenty of 6ft sets on offer yesterday- smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD - with light winds providing premium surface conditions. Size has eased back another notch today with clean 3-4ft surf across most of the NENSW region and smaller 2-3ft surf in SEQLD. Hope you are getting your fill.

Easing but still some strong lines

This week (June 15-17)

Beautiful settled conditions at the moment with high pressure in the Tasman off the Central NSW Coast and a weakening low and frontal system just west of Tasmania poised to supply a couple more days of W’ly biased winds through the short term. The Southern Ocean gyre is now well to the S and SE of the South Island, generating one last pulse of long period swell for our region. There’s a fresh set of cards to sort through next week with a couple of swell sources on offer. Read on for details. 

A front passing well to the south Mon, supplies another pulse of S swell which should show be in the water at dawn on he MNC and be in the water early morning across Ballina/Yamba, reaching the QLD border mid/late morning, with sets to 3-4ft at S facing beaches, smaller 2ft at SEQLD S swell magnets.  NW winds will swing more W’ly through the day as the low moves east of Tasmania and drives a fairly weak synoptic flow across NSW. There should be a few fun waves to be had, with S exposed breaks in NENSW seeing the best of it.

The working week ends with surf easing through the day. Leftover surf  in the 2-3ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW will be clean early under W to SW winds but these winds will clock around SW to S through the a’noon as weak low pressure and a high in the bight combine to drive a thin S’ly flow along the NSW Coast. This should reach QLD by late morning where surf is expected to be tiny, apart from a couple of the most reliable S swell magnets.

This weekend (June 18-19)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Winds still looking a bit iffy with weak low pressure in the Tasman and a high moving East from the Bight maintaining a S’ly flow along the coast for both Sat and Sun. There’s likely to be a window of SW winds early both mornings, more , before S’lies kick in.

Surf-wise, long period SSE swell peaks through Sat. Exposed S facing breaks will see some inconsistent 3-4ft surf, with more protected breaks smaller. Keep expectations pegged quite low due to the wind, but there should be enough energy and period in the swell to provide some fun waves at more protected spots.

Sunday sees the SSE swell slowly easing back with 3-4ft sets early, dropping back to 3ft or less during the a’noon. A bit of short period, local S’ly windswell is likely through the a’noon if you are desperate. Nothing amazing Sunday but there will be some surfable options.

Next week (June 13 onwards)

Weak high pressure ridge along the coast early next week and the high in the central Tasman sets up a SE flow adjacent to New Zealand and extending into the Central and Northern  Tasman. That fetch now looks a little weaker than it did Mon but it will still provide waves for the region.

Mod S to SSE winds Mon are expected along with a faint signal of long period SSE swell and some short range SE swell, with all sources topping out around 2-3ft. Don’t expect much quality it’s likely to be pretty scrappy.

Tues looks a better bet, with the ridge slackening and an approaching front possibly seeing winds slacken through the day. SE swell should perk up a notch into the 3ft range across most of the region.  That should see some peaky options on beachbreaks through the day.

By Wed we’ll be expecting a muscle up in E swell, as a sub-tropical low intensifies around the North Island of New Zealand early in the new week (see below). There’s swell producing fetches both on the inside of the North Island down to Cook Strait- better aimed at Central NSW- and a fetch north of the North Island, better aimed at subtropical regions. We’ll finesse those fetches as they come into being but for now we are looking at good quality E/SE swell building into the 4-5ft range later Wed under NW to W winds, possibly tending W/SW to SW as a small low spins up off the coast.

This size should extend into Thurs before easing Fri.

Models are still divergent into next weekend but it looks like a small low in the Tasman Sea will not have good high pressure support and surf will be small heading into the next weekend 25/26 June.

Check back Fri for the latest update before the weekend.