South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 13th June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Large S swell peaking Mon across the region with light winds perfect for regional Points
• S swell slowly eases back Tues/Wed remaining solid in NENSW, small in SEQLD with mostly light winds
• Pulse of S swell Thurs, favouring NENSW for size, with offshore winds
• Low point Fri
• Long range SSE groundswell Sat, easing into Sun with SW/S winds
• Couple of swell sources from the SE next week, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Pretty special long weekend of stiff, cold offshore winds and thick, straight S swell, although it was a bit feast and famine, mostly depending on what side of the border you were on. A fantastic late rise in S swell Fri night lasted into Sat morning with plenty of 4-6ft surf on offer in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at select SEQLD swell magnets and tiny elsewhere. Surf levelled off into the 3-5ft range Sun in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. 

Today has seen the peak of the swell with S facing beaches in NENSW seeing thick lines of 8-10ft swell, grading smaller 6-8ft at regional Points and 2-3ft in SEQLD. There was just enough energy in SEQLD to wrap into the Points on the Gold Coast. Conditions stayed dreamy with offshore winds, which tended light S’ly during the day. We’ve got more S swell on offer this week, at reduced sizes compared to this weekend and mostly light winds. 

Head high set manages to refract into one of the QLD Points

Some long lines on the Sunshine Coast but hard to find a corner

This week (June 13-17)

The large Southern gyre is now drifting over the South Island with a last front pushing through the lower Tasman today. High pressure is occupying most of NSW and is slowly moving over the coastal region, leading to light winds and settled conditions  in the near term. More fronts maintain a synoptic offshore flow (or light winds) for the week and we’ve got plenty of S swell to last the week, albeit at reduced sizes compared to the weekend.

In the short run and we’ll be ramping down from todays peak but there’ll still be plenty of size around in NENSW. Solid 5-6ft sets at S facing beaches with deep-water adjacent reefs still up in the 6-8ft range, although on a slow ease through the day. Expect smaller 2-3ft surf at SEQLD swell magnets with S swell exposure. Winds will start W/NW to W, then tilt NW to N in the pre-lunch period, with a possible light NE seabreeze on the cards. Surf will lose size through the a’noon.

Into Wed and expect light winds to tend NW before  possibly light N’ly as the next front pushes across the region, probably overnight Wed. Winds will be lighter and more variable through the day in SEQLD. Residual S swell should hold some easing 3-5ft surf at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD. There’ll be just a slow, easing trend in place but size should hold at a decent level across NENSW S facing breaks. 

Offshore winds extend into Thurs morning so expect premium surface conditions. Residual S swell in the 3-4ft range slowly eases before a new swell front generated by the passage of todays front and low sees fresh pulse likely showing best through the a’noon. Expect surf to rebuild into the 4ft+ range at S exposed breaks in NENSW under offshore winds, with a possible light N’ly breeze in the a’noon.

We’ll end the working week with winds finally starting to tilt to the S as a small troughy surface low forms off the South Coast and a weak ridge builds up through the sub-tropics. There’s not much in it, so winds should maintain W through SW for a while, before tilting SSW to S in the a’noon. Enough to scuff up S facing beaches. Friday should the the low point of the week swell-wise with small leftovers from the S in the 2-3ft range in NENSW, tiny/flat in SEQLD.

This weekend (June 18-19)

Winds look a bit iffy over the weekend. Fridays small troughy surface low moves north to be off the Sydney region on Saturday and bringing an increased SSW to S flow as the high pressure ridge strengthens a notch. That SSW to S’ly flow looks quite entrenched over the weekend so you’ll need to factor in some wind protection which will cost you some size.

There will be some swell to play with. The deep SSE fetch below the South Island sends long period SSE swell to the region (see below), which should peak Sat in the inconsistent 3-4ft range across S exposures in NENSW, with inconsistent 2ft sets in SEQLD. Long periods and a slight E’ly component to the swell should assist in getting into more protected spots away from the wind, although these will be smaller than directly S facing spots.

Size eases back into the 3ft range Sun, with the addition of some short period, short range S’ly windswell rebuilding size into the 3-4ft range during the a’noon. After the current run of groundswell this will be junky, close range stuff. Probably not worth worrying about with 15 knots or more of S’ly wind on it.

Next week (June 13 onwards)

As mentioned on Friday we have a couple of swell sources to look forwards to next week, although it’s highly likely we’ll need to revise any expected wave heights through the week.

First cab off the rank is a developing fetch of SE winds squeezed between an elongated high and the small, low off the NSW Coast, which is likely to drift into the Tasman. This fetch develops in the Central/Eastern Tasman later in the weekend and is likely to supply some mid-period SSE-SE swell through Tues/Wed. Models are moving around a lot on this but we’ll pencil in 3-4ft at this stage and adjust as we get closer.

Short range S swell is likely to build into Mon as a precursor, under mod/fresh S’ly winds.

Further afield a large, deep low forms near the North Island over the weekend into early next week. Most of the direct winds aimed at the East Coast get quickly shadowed by the North Island but winds extending out of Cook Strait and the West side of the North Island are likely to generate E/SE swell for the region. Possibly over-lapping the previous swell later Tues into Wed. We’ll pencil in 4ft for this swell source and check back on in Wed. 

Following that looks like a weak blocking pattern possibly spelling some small surf going into the weekend 25/26 June.

More on that in Wednesday’s notes.