S swell and offshore winds all weekend, with much more size Mon
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 10th June)
Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- Solid S'ly swell Fri PM (only small in SE Qld)
- Very large S'ly swell (Nthn NSW) this weekend, with plenty of fun waves in SE Qld
- Large S swell peaking Mon across the region with light winds perfect for regional Points
- Offshore winds through the entire period, with a few curve balls of NW/N wind thrown in.
- Plenty more strong S swell through to mid next week at least, with offshore winds
- Last pulse of S swell Thurs PM, easing to tiny/flat next weekend
Recap
Straight offshore winds have been blowing constantly since Wed and straight S swells have been in the water with them. Size yesterday was in 3-4ft range in NENSW, with some good to great surf on hand. SEQLD S facing beaches briefly fired up, although periods of devil wind (NW-N) made life difficult. Smaller surf has been on the menu today- inconsistent 3ft in NENSW, with smaller 1-1.5ft surf in SEQLD. A stronger pulse is working it’s way north later this a’noon.
S swell getting north of the border with some devil wind on it
This weekend (June 11-12)
Still on track for plenty of strong S swell this weekend. Current ASCAT (satellite wind speed) passes show gales to severe gales extending down to 55S with a tighter core of storm force winds just emerging from behind Tasmania as it tracks NE into the Tasman Sea. The synoptic flow from the fronts and Southern Gyre remains W to W/SW and that will continue all weekend with plenty of wind chill to boot.
Sat starts with plenty of swell in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. Through the a’noon we should see a noticeable muscling up with sets up a foot or so, more noticeable at S exposures as new longer period S swell fills in. This new S swell pulse should be in on the MNC lunch-time, Ballina area mid-arvo and QLD border just before dark.
This size continues on overnight Sat before holding into Sun morning, easing through the mid-morning-mid-arvo, before the next big pulse arrives. This one will have teeth as storm force winds generate longer swell periods. We should see a marked increase from late a’noon on the MNC, filling in across the far North Coast before dark. Unlikely to show in SEQLD before close of play.
Next week (June 13 onwards)
Sundays late pulse extends through Mon, with a peak in size expected to last through the day. Winds swinging W through SW before tilting S/SW again as the front passes, before easing right back to a possible late seabreeze. Strong, long period sets in the 6-8ft range with bigger surf at deep-water adjacent reefs are expected in NENSW, with SEQLD seeing surf in the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches and Northern Corners.
Winds should drop right out Tues as weak high pressure moves over the area and we get a light land and seabreeze effect. Those dreamy conditions will prevail over still strong S swell in the 6ft range, bigger 8ft at S facing reefs, and SEQLD seeing strong sets in the 4ft+ range at S exposed breaks. Expect an a’noon NE seabreeze on Tues and size to ease through the day, back to 4-5ft in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD.
Winds remain offshore for Wed and Thurs- but we’re expecting less swell from the bottom of the gyre under New Zealand- as it moves off a bit more quickly than models anticipated on Wed.
Wed will still see surf in the 4ft range at S facing breaks in NENSW, easing back during the day with some 2ft sets in SEQLD.
A last little kick in size Thurs is expected, boosting surf back into the 4-5ft range after lunch, before easing during the day. SEQLD should see some clean 2-3ft sets, with bigger 3ft+ surf at a few select swell magnets.
By the end of next week we’ll see surf easing more fully, down to 2-3ft Fri and then tiny for next weekend.
Into the medium term and we’ll be tracking a potential sub-tropical low forming in the South Pacific slow between New Caledonia and the North Island as well as SE fetch off the South Island which shows some potential. Both of these are right at the end of model projections so we’ll see how that are shaping up on Mon.
For now, all eyes to the South. Have a great weekend and seeya Monday!
Comments
If only we had some good quality offshore bombies or reef breaks offshore GC/NNSW like the box in WA to enjoy these south swells.
Thats it man, everytime it goes north of 6 fit around NNSW, its maxed pretty much everywhere.
Some reef breaks would be so good! Heard about a couple out offshore, but such a mission to get out there.
That said, i just had a super fun surf, was getting bigger the whole time i was out.
Tomorrow should be fun.
how good was that late pulse!
Out there free? How you goin?
Kept an eye on the bouys, noticed an uptick this arvo. Out of time by then, hopefully tomoz.
yeah got a couple of beauties on dark, with a moon rise and crystal clear water full of bream.
pretty magic.
oooh yeh boiz! Hoping there'll be some more goodies tomorrow!
Sunshine Coast will see zero from this swell. Stupid southerly swells
Yeah not holding my breath.
Deffo something Mon/Tues, should be rideable surf on the weekend at magnets.
but yeah, as a Bribie boy I know the pain.
If people wanting to do step offs in 4ft waves could kindly fuck off to the empty stretches where they can be multiple kilometres from any other surfer, that would be nice.
Please leave the 1 in 50 non-closeouts to the paddlers and don’t chop the rest up.
Serious farken losers.
Absolute clowns.
Wow.
No awareness, simply selfish. You yell at them?
Yeh, a couple of us threw our arms up and told them where to go.
One threw up a peace sign at me.
Few skis out today but at least it’s ski worthy.
Pretty underwhelming today, hopefully tomorrow before it gets too big
Pumping!
Perhaps it's time to properly update the Surf Forecast chart to accurately reflect winter swells on the Sunshine Coast? Been subscribing for a few years now and though I now know to take it with a grain of salt when using it to gauge S'ly swells, it seems so silly to have to do that year after year. I was hoping for 3ft at exposed locations today and it doesn't look like we will even get that. The chart has been predicting more than double the surf size for a couple of days now. Has a S'ly swell coming in at an angle of more than 170 degrees ever produced 6ft surf at exposed locations up here like has been predicted on the charts?? Does the forecast chart get a look over by a human or is it just an algorithm? I realise I can find more acute details in the forecaster notes and I do always read them and enjoy the effort put into those. But it consistently seems like there is a quite a mismatch between the predictions in those and the surf forecast chart which seems unnecessary.
Keep in mind the SC, as far as surf is concerned, generally refers to Bribie through Rainbow and you can absolutely have flat Bribie with 6ft DI in winter South swells so it depends where you're looking. There's plenty of magnets and banks that come and go which pick up swell where 5 minutes N or S are flat.
You'll be better served learning what works where rather than relying on that chart. Check around every day for a few years, no substitute for experience.
FWIW scored very fun 3ft with one other this morning, nowhere near a carpark.
Cheers. Yeah I know how to judge it now in regards to swell direction. Just thought it could quite easily be improved a bit. All good.
Yeah it's a tough region given the variances and could possibly be improved but probably not without also being overly specific and the last thing any of us need is more people on the spot.
Surf forecast charts are literally just the model generated outputs, not something the forecasters set. That's why they write up the forecaster notes, as its about interpreting models in conjunction with local bathymetry to understand what waves will be locally.
A bay has a few feet if not bigger most of the time, swell magnet. If you have a 4wd di pocket , Morton blocks a shit tonne of swell after Byron. All I'm going to say :) a mission can pay off
:(
:(
Pretty epic weekend, offshore and still managing to catch a bit of the swell,
Inconsistent AF. but fucking loads better then anywhere I’d normally go
Shark island used to be my favourite surf cam, and Cronulla point has for me been "meh shitty fat set up most of the time I look" but farrk me it's been cooking!!! Proper pumping, looking forward to seeing it tomorrow.
Today seemed smaller throughout the day than yesterday? N-NSW.
Hold the phone bone, don't let your mind roam home bone, from the south tomorrow all alone, you will stand tall alone in a keg the size of a small home bone.
Oh finnbobba the terror,
Words could not be said any fairer
Come on huey, Bring the swell
Not once, not twice, but thrice
That’s how many times I’ll dare ya.
I’ll sacrifice a bacon egg
To hopefully score a good keg.
Then wash it down with a stubb
More than enough to put me to bed.
.
The swell down here has been insignificant, Morno pier would have been more interesting. Had a solo at sosmontal yesterday only because I had converted a twin to a twinza and was desperate to try, It only confirmed that I'm prepared to surf the worst waves in Australia in the worst weather in Australia. Hope ya find something good tomozza.
Impressive swell periods.
https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/monitoring/wav...
I know we've had a great run of waves on the GC, however i still felt like i missed out over the weekend looking at the cams from down south.
As per usual, the S swell going straight past the GC again. I bet lennox is pumping right now
a couple of small but nice lines appearing on greenmount cam
Seems to be coming in smaller than expected on the Goldy, will get outta work early and go look around for something worthwhile.
You cant expect anything on the goldy with the angle of this swell, no matter how large or powerful. Im stoked to see anything refract in.
Yeah that is typically my presumption, however forecaster notes inferred that swell magnets would be seeing a bit of swell so thought maybe the swell period may push it in a bit more. Classic south swell, too big for NNSW and too small for goldy.