South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 6th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Tropical cylone generated NE swell late Wed on the Sunshine Coast, extending into Thursday. Swell shows on the Gold Coast and Northern NSW Thurs, with SE winds freshening
• Plenty of E'ly swell building in from later Wed, into Thurs, and over Fri-Tues at significant levels, with S to SE winds
• Tracking a potential ECL mid next week off the NSW Coast, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Nothing exciting to recap today. Small surf yesterday in the 1-2ft range, mostly clean conditions. Suitable for beginners and a fun grovel. Today has seen further small surf in the 2ft range with winds now tending onshore. These winds will kick up over the next few days as we embark on an extended E’ly swell event, generated in part, by TC Fili.

Smallest day we will see for a while, with some fun peaks

This week (Apr 6-8)

The large peanut-shaped high lies diagonally across the Bight and extending down off the East Coast of Tasmania. This is seeing E’ly winds developing in the f/cast region, with this pattern expected to extend into the weekend. In the tropics, TC Fili is now moving SE to S/SE, roughly parallel with Grand Terre- the largest island of New Caledonia. TC Fili is expected to become slow moving as it becomes cradled by the peanut high, with a persistent fetch of E’ly winds supplying an extended run of swell from that direction. A strong low which passed through the Tasman is also sending a quantum of longer period S swell our way, likely to be buried in the prevailing mixed up sea state. SE winds over the next few days will favour the Points for quality, so be prepared to get your “crowd head” on, or accept lower quality waves.

In the short run and SE’ly winds really fire up through tomorrow as the high moves East and strengthens, with pressure gradients tightened by an inland trough and the slow moving cyclone. The initial SW movement of TC Fili with a core of NE winds aimed at the QLD Coast has already seen NE swell make landfall along the Wide Bay coast-line. Surf from this source- quite rare- will show later this a’noon on the Sunshine Coast and propagate down to the Gold Coast through Thursday. Expect sets in the 3ft range, bigger 3-4ft at select locations on the Sunshine Coast. These compact cyclone fetches near New Caledonia typically produce inconsistent swells with 1-2 waves per set so be patient and set expectations accordingly. This won’t be a pumping cyclone swell.

Elsewhere through the region we’ll see prevailing short range E swell in the 2-3ft range through the day. A few sets from the NE will extend down to the Byron region. 

Wind remains an issue  Friday with SE’lies in the 20-30knot range making a mess of surface conditions outside of the Points. Swell will not in short supply though Stronger S to S/SE swell in the 3ft range fills in through the day with a stronger pulse late in the day through NENSW. That will be mixed with heaps of shorter to mid period E to E/SE swell building from 3ft into the 4-5ft range. By Friday we’ll see surf on the pump again at most SEQLD and NENSW Points.

This weekend (Apr 9-10)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. SE winds start to tilt more E/SE in NENSW through Sat as the dominant high drifts out into the Tasman Sea. These winds should stay straight SE in SEQLD. Those winds may just ease a notch through later in the day, but it’s unlikely to open up beachbreaks which will be very choppy after days of onshore winds. Plenty of E-ESE swell in the 4-6ft range is expected with S/SE swell in the 3ft range more noticeable in NENSW.

Sunday sees the SE’ly pattern finally start to break down, as the high moves out across the Tasman Sea. Morning winds are likely to tend SW, especially through Far Northern NSW and the Southern Gold Coast, opening up more options for semi-protected beachbreaks to come online. There’ll be plenty of E swell still on offer, in the 4ft range. Longer period E swell generated by an intensification of the E’ly winds around TC or ex TC Fili is expected to see a stronger 4-5ft pulse through the a’noon. Another day of pumping Point surf to add to the collection, with a few beachbreaks starting to open up, sandbanks permitting.

Next week (Apr11 onwards)

It’s a fine looking synoptic pattern as far as E swell goes. TC Fili is expected to track into the slot and stall- roughly equidistant between New Caledonia, the North Island and the East Coast of Australia ( see below). At some stage it will lose intensity and become extra-tropical but even as an ex TC the overall cradling fetch of E’ly winds is going to supply days of E’ly swell. 

There’s an intensification of the fetch over the weekend, likely as TC Fili undergoes extra-tropical transition and this leads to a stronger pulse of E’ly swell to start next week, a carry over from Sundays pulse. Monday looks great with light morning winds, tending to light seabreezes and 4-5ft of E swell lighting up most of the region ( a few 6footers at the better E swell magnets are on the cards, so bring a step-up). It shouldn’t be hard to find good/great surf on Mon.

Tuesday repeats the dose. More mid period E swell in the 4-5ft range. Winds are an issue Tues: a trough and potential ECL forming may see winds swinging W to W/NW, which is great news. We also may see  N’ly winds through the region, which is not so great news. Check back Fri and we’ll finesse the winds.

Into mid next week and, potentially, all hell breaks loose again. GFS model suggests an ECL forming off the NSW South Coast, with potential gales to storm force winds and another large S swell event (favouring NENSW) through later Wed into Thurs/Fri. You’ll see that on the wave models.

EC has a much more sedate outlook. They suggest the trough system stays inland and increasing E to NE winds flow into it, through Wed-Fri. That will see another round of onshore winds and short range E swell through into Easter Friday.

Instability and the intrusion of cold polar air over the interior suggests the probability of ECL formation is high, so check back Friday and see how things are shaping up.