South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 30th Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Mix of E swell and fast rising S swell Thurs PM as low deepens off Central NSW Coast
• Surf becoming large from the S Fri with strong SW to S winds
• Large S swell favouring NENSW for size, Sat and Sun with SW winds Sat AM, winds easing Sun
• Surf easing quickly Mon with a couple of small days Mon/Tues with light winds
• Tracking the tropics for potential depression or cyclone later next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Very mixed bag across the region as a sub-tropical hybrid low off the Coast brought plenty of wind, swell and rain. Surf built yesterday into the 4-5ft range with the Sunshine Coast getting the best of the winds- on offshore flow off the top of the low which produced good to great surf for the area. Further South there was more great surf on the Coolie Points in the 4ft range while NENSW received an onshore flow and stacks of rain, which produced more devastating flooding overnight,  as the hybrid low moved SW to be located just off the NSW North Coast through the early hrs. Winds have been all over the place today as the low wobbled around and moved North. Generally offshore from Ballina north, before tending more NW to N, with a stronger E/SE to SE flow from Evans Head South. Surf was in the 4-5ft range today with some 6ft sets on the Tweed Coast, now easing back as the background E to E/NE fetch moves further southwards. 

A Tasman low develops in the trough line off Sydney overnight and generates a large S to SSE swell which will favour NENSW for most size. Details below.

Another day of chocolate tinged tubes at the Superbank to add to the La Nina collection

E/NE swell direction got straight into the protected Points

Sunny Coast beachies on the Pump yesterday

This week (Mar 30-Apr1)

The complex brew of La Niña mediated weather is as follows: a hybrid sub-tropical low located just off the coast of Ballina is moving slowly northwards while a cold front pushes into the Tasman Sea, extending along the southern coast of NSW. A trough of low pressure associated with the current sub-tropical low deepens rapidly through tomorrow in response to the influx of cold air, forming a storm force low pressure system off the NSW Central Coast overnight Thursday into Friday.

This low is expected to deepen but the main factor is the pressure gradient squeeze between the low (expected to be around 990hPa on Fri) and a very large high (1038hPa) moving well south of the Bight. Storm force winds are proximate to the NSW Coast and are well placed to generate huge seas and XL surf through Fri and into the weekend.

In the short term and E/NE swell generated by a broad fetch of winds feeding into the North Coast low will hold an easing 3-4ft of surf across most of the region. Expect surf from this source to dry up during the day, especially in SEQLD.

Through NENSW the prevailing E/NE swell will be overlapped by a developing S swell as the S’ly fetch starts to ramp up along the NSW coast. This should start showing across the Mid North Coast by lunch-time, North Coast through the a’noon and reach the QLD border just on dark. Size is expected to build into the 5-6ft range in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD. It’s unlikely to show on the Sunshine Coast before dark. 

Winds will be fresh and gusty SW early, tending S’ly through the day. 

No change to the Fri f/cast. Large and with strong S’ly winds, that may tend SSW across the southern Gold Coast. A storm force low is expected to be about 500km almost due East of Sydney. Winds wrapping around the south-east quadrant of the low are well aimed at Central NSW, as well as areas to the south and north. Expect surf in the 8ft range, bigger 10ft+ at more exposed S facing stretches of coastline in NENSW, smaller 5-6ft in SEQLD Only the most sheltered or well known big wave spots will be surfable in NENSW, with the QLD Points being much smaller and more user friendly apart from the strong S’lies. Observing the maelstrom from a distance or hunkering down will be the go for most people, especially in NENSW.

This weekend (Apr 2-3)

OK, compared to Mondays notes the deep low is now expected to drift slowly S through SSW on the weekend as it weakens. 

That changes the local wind regime as a more SW to SSW outflow begins to impact the coast, particularly on the Mid North to North Coast.

Size will still be large on Sat. Swell direction should tend a notch more S/SE as the winds on the more southern flank of the low generate longer period swell trains. The big question mark will be winds. If the low tracks S under EC modelling, we’ll see SW winds develop early, opening up a window of potential big wave excellence at certain reefs and big wave spots. We’ll expect 8-10ft+ of surf, across S exposed breaks in NENSW, 6ft at S exposed breaks in SEQLD and much smaller surf into the more protected N facing Points and Bays.

Sunday now looks to open up a wider range of surf spots. Winds are much more likely to tend W to SW early, as the low drifts south. A light NE flow is probable in the a’noon. With early sets still in the 8ft range there should be some really good medium/big surf on offer across reefs and Points in NENSW. This will ease through the day, down into the 4-6ft range in the a’noon, opening up more recreational-sized surf through the region. Surf will be smaller 5-6ft in SEQLD, smaller on the Points.

Next week (Apr4 onwards)

With the remnants of the low expected to be drifting off the Gippsland Coast late in the weekend, early on Mon we should see a couple of small days with light winds to start next week.

Residual S-S/SE swell from the low should hold surf in the 3-4ft range at S exposed breaks on Mon, with light offshore winds extending through the morning.

Surf declines further into Tues with only small 2-3ft surf from the S and light winds. 

A couple of nice days to check out the coast for new sand formations after the weekend’s swell bombardment.

By Wed a new cold front is expected to sweep up along the NSW Coast. EC suggests a stronger system than GFS, so pencil in a day of S winds and short range E swell in the 3ft range in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. We’ll finesse the size further once we get closer to the event.

High pressure then moves E of Tasmania later next week, with S’ly winds likely to develop through Thurs/Fri and increasing short range S swell.

Longer term and as we mentioned on Mon, we’ll be looking to the North as a potential depression or cyclone tracks down through the Coral Sea. This event is starting to shape up. Although GFS has a much better outlook with the system well inside New Caledonia and a supporting ridge generating a broad fetch of E’ly winds through the Southern Coral Sea into the Northern Tasman. That offers up good potential for a slow building E swell possibly next weekend.

EC has more limited surf potential with the system tracking SE more quickly, obliquely to the swell window. There’s still good potential for a SE fetch through the Northern Tasman though, so odds are good we’ll see an increasing surf next weekend. 

Check back Fri for a latest update before the weekend.