South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 25th Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small SE swell Sat with mod S to SE winds, cleanest early
• Light winds Sun AM offer up opportunity for beach breaks with winds tending SE 
• Long period S swell for NENSW likely Sun PM/Mon
• Workable levels of E swell to start next week 
• Uncertain outlook as trough/low form off Mid NorthCoast or SE QLD next week
• Major SE swell expected as front interacts with low next week, stay tuned for details

Recap

Small and clean has been the order of the day since the last f/cast. Yesterday was generally 2ft with the odd 3ft set still around on exposed coasts, more prevalent in NENSW. Today has eased further with surf not exceeding 2ft at the most exposed swell magnets in the region. Winds were light early with SE/NE breezes kicking in during the a’noon. Definitely the most subdued ocean conditions we have seen since the start of 2022.

Small, glassy peaks to end the week

This weekend (Mar 26-27)

Bit of fine tuning required on the weekend f/cast. A trough which was expected to drift south from the North Coast and aim up a proximate fetch of E’ly winds at the Central NSW Coast is now expected to stay much more northwards in latitude. 

That places the onshore winds around the Mid North Coast up to just before Yamba with lighter winds on the Far North Coast and into SEQLD.

Light morning winds should tend SW across the region, apart from the Mid North Coast, which may see early SE winds.

Size will be in the 2ft range with a dominant short period E’ly swell, building to a  larger 2-3ft in NENSW on Sat a’noon. There should be a few small waves about on Sat.

More of the same Sun, with a slight bump in short range E’ly swell up into the 2-3ft range in SEQLD, slightly bigger 3ft in NENSW. Expect more light winds in the morning tending SE/E in SEQLD, more E to E/NE in NENSW. A few long period S swell trains will make landfall in the a’noon supplying 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches but it’s unlikely to provide much in the way of quality surf due to the prevailing onshore flow.

Next week (Mar28 onwards)

A coastal trough and an interior trough set up the start of next week. Winds along the trough line will be light and variable early, tending NE through the day. 

The E’ly infeed tends more E/NE to NE later Sunday, with surf from that direction prevailing on Mon. 

Size will hold up in the 2-3ft range, along with long period S swell which will peak in the morning with inconsistent 3ft sets, before easing during the day.  

The trough may deepen into a large area of more organised low pressure during the a’noon off the Fraser Coast, seeing increased swell through Tues from the E/NE. This scenario is subject to major model divergence so is a low confidence outlook. 

Low confidence extends into Tuesday (and Wednesday!) with EC placing a surface low just offshore from the North Coast. A SE flow along the southern flank of the low is expected (from this scenario) with S to SE winds developing across the region. Expect increasing 3ft to 3-4ft of E/NE swell under the EC scenario.

GFS maintains a broad area of low pressure off the SEQLD coast, possibly forming a diffuse low during Tuesday. The GFS scenario will see surf hold in the 2-3ft range Tues into Wed, with light winds. Land breezes in the morning tending to light SE winds.

This expansive troughy pattern is likely to morph from day to day as weather models struggle to resolve the vorticity and local areas of low pressure within the trough line.

This extremely complex, dynamic brew extends from Wed next week. We’ll be revising this substantially on Mon but the basic outline is another surface low developing off the Mid North or North Coast later Wed. This is then augmented by a major front pushing into the Tasman, merging with the surface low to create a large area of low pressure in the Tasman. Under current modelling the resultant S to SE winds would cover the majority off the Northern, Central and Lower Tasman Seas, generating a large S to SE swell, beginning late Thursday or early Fri.

This is likely to build into the 4-6ft range across the MidNorth Coast late Thurs and become solid 6ft+ during Fri, with fresh S to S/SE winds accompanying the swell. 

This could be a major under call due to GFS powering most wave models and EC suggesting a much stronger system, which would see 8ft+ or larger surf during Fri.

A slow roll off in size is then expected next weekend, first weekend in April as the low moves away.

Looks like the first major Autumn swell from this source is now on the radar. 

We’ll keep tabs on the situation over the weekend and come back Mon with a full update.

Until then, have a great weekend!