South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 23rd Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Surf easing into the end of this week with light winds tending SE on Fri
• Small SE swell Sat with light/mod S to SE winds
• Light winds Sun offer up opportunity for beach breaks
• Long period S swell for NENSW likely Sun PM/Mon
• Workable levels of E swell to start next week 
• S swell likely by end of next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Tuesday was definitely a good day with a renewal in SE swell, more apparent in NENSW. Size came in a surprisingly varied range of heights considering the swell direction. Most places in NENSW reported good 3-4ft surf, within f/cast expectations, while SEQLD saw much smaller 2-3ft surf- even smaller on the Sunshine Coast. Conditions were A-grade with light morning land breezes which tended to a’noon SE  breezes. Size today has dipped back into the 3ft range across most of the region with a less consistent 2ft north of the border. Light NW winds are now freshening from the NE. 

Few peaks with a N'ly on it

Small, clean options on the Sunshine Coast

This week (Mar23-25)

We’ve seen the best of this week, with a Tasman low which produced a few days of surf now dissipated near New Zealand.  A large area of high pressure is being displaced by a trough which is expected to linger about the North Coast of NSW through the end of the week. The trough is connected to a parent low pushing through the lower Tasman, but the combination of short period SE and longer period S swells will be marred by a tricky wind outlook.

In the short run and light N’ly winds are expected through tomorrow, with the exception of the Mid-North Coast which will see S’lies as a trough works it’s way up the coast. Expect a light NW flow through the morning with some small beachies on offer. No great size is expected with residual SE swell topping out with 2ft sets at exposed S facing breaks. 1-2ft elsewhere.

The end of the working week also looks marginal. SE swell fades out quickly leaving a weak signal in the 1-2ft range at exposed breaks. Another trough works it’s way north through the region, offering a slim window of lighter winds in the morning before tending S to SE to in the a’noon and freshening through the evening. If you’ve got designs on a surf Fri, hit it early with low expectations.

This weekend (Mar 26-27)

No great change to the weekend f/cast . A high just east of Tasmania and a slow moving trough of low pressure off the North Coast direct a pretty robust onshore flow across most of temperate NSW. This fetch will be too far south to be of much use for our sub-tropical region (see below) so we’ll be looking at very small surf on Sat with only 1-2ft waves at exposed S facing breaks and tiny elsewhere. Light SW early will tend light SE during the day so there is the chance for some small clean waves but bring a groveller. 

There should be a slight bump in wave heights Sun as E’ly winds across the Coral Sea build a short period trade swell. No great size is expected but we should see a few workable 2ft sets, more likely in the a’noon. With the trough off the Mid North Coast light and variable winds are expected. If the trough stays further north we’ll see increased onshore winds but at the moment those onshore winds look to be established from roughly Port Macquarie southwards. Most of the region north from there should see lighter winds.

We’ll also see some longer period S swell trains across NENSW through Sun, persisting into Mon, from strong polar fronts. These should be worth a few 2ft or 2-3ft sets later Sun at the more reliable S swell magnets in NENSW, persisting into Mon. These swell trains will be inconsistent and depending on the period signature likely to impact different areas of the NENSW coast, very differently. In other words, expect a flukey swell signal. 

Next week (Mar28 onwards)

The ongoing troughiness in the Tasman Sea is introducing a lot of variability in models from run to run so we’ll likely be revising substantially on the run as the pattern becomes resolved.

Monday should see a modest amount of short period E swell with size in the 2ft range and lighter winds, likely NE in the a’noon.

That signal of small E swell is likely to continue into Tuesday.

From Tuesday things get a bit fuzzier. EC model resolves the trough with a S’ly change working up the coast and E swell holding in the 2-3ft range. 

This S’ly pattern extends through Wed and into the end of the week as a cold front and leading edge of a strong high generate a major S’ly fetch in the Tasman Sea, extending up into the sub-tropics. That will see a couple of days of small surf before a major increase in S swell, late Thurs/Fri.

GFS has this pattern delayed substantially with a NE flow continuing through Tues and Wed and small E/NE swell in the 2-3ft range. 

The trough intensifies off Tasmania or the South Coast Thurs, with a strong though reduced in size S’ly fetch leading to a steep increase in S swell Fri. 

This trough may form another lingering low in the Tasman, with good odds for solid S to S/SE swell next weekend, first weekend of April.

We’ll also flag a long fetch developing East of the North Island around a sub-tropical low early next week. Models are mixed with EC suggesting the fetch remains within the swell shadow of the North Island while GFS moves it north while it moves away- putting it in our swell window mid next week. We’ll revisit this Fri.

Looks like an active period ahead so check back Fri for the latest update.