South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 21st Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Stronger pulse of S to S/SE swell favouring NENSW Mon, easing Tues
• Easing  SE swell Wed  with light winds
• Surf easing into the end of next week with light winds
• Small SE swell this weekend with freshening S to SE winds
• Small start to next week

Recap

That SE wind blew fairly hard for most of the weekend, with only brief windows of lighter SW winds inshore early. Size was around 2ft both days in SEQLD, with NENSW seeing S swell pick up into the 3ft range on Sunday. Size increased further into today with NENSW seeing some nice lines in the 3-4ft range and SEQLD some cleaner 2-3ft surf. S’ly winds are now starting to finally lay down as pressure gradients ease across the region. 

Some shapely peaks to start the week

This week (Mar21-25)

The current low in the Tasman has been slow moving over the last 36hrs, and in conjunction with a 1027 hPa high which is sliding SE below New Zealand, has maintained a reasonable fetch of S/SE winds through the Central and Eastern Tasman.  One last pulse from this system is expected tomorrow before a relatively quiet week unfolds. Several rapid wind changes ahead offer up some windows of favourable winds which will make a change from the general SE flow of the previous few weeks.

In the short run and an elongated “bubble” high moves north along the coast through tomorrow, bringing a cracker of a day with light offshore breezes which will tend SE through the day, with winds becoming light in the a’noon.

A last pulse of mid period S/SE-SE swell offers up more 2-3ft surf, bigger 3-4ft at exposed coasts in NENSW. Tuesday is the best looking day of the f/cast period, so get amongst it if you can, especially for the early session.

Surf will be down from peak heights by Wed, with 2ft leftovers, 2-3ft at select S swell magnets in NENSW, but conditions will be clean for the mop up. Early W to NW winds should see clean conditions for the beachies, before winds tend N’ly through the day.

Thurs and Fri look like the smallest days we have seen for a while, with only small amount of residual SE swell in the 2ft range , 1-2ft in SEQLD.

Thursday should see light winds, NW early tending to a’noon sea breezes so it’ll be worth a grovel if you can find a small wave bank.

Similar conditions for Friday with surf even smaller, topping out around 1-2ft at really exposed swell magnets in NENSW and smaller in SEQLD. Again, light winds will make a grovel worthwhile.

A trough will be working it’s way north during Friday , likely bringing a more W’ly flow south of Yamba. We’ll finesse than wind outlook on Wed. 

This week should give a chance for sandbanks to settle and water to properly clean up after flooding rain. 

This weekend (Mar 26-27)

Nothing to get too excited about this weekend, although there should be some small waves to be had. A trough sits on top of a high pushing east off Tasmania. That will see developing S to SSE winds Sat, with a window of SW breezes early. Small surf in the 1-2ft range early is expected to build from the SE during the day. Areas on the mid-north coast should get up into the 3-4ft range during the day, grading smaller 3ft North of Yamba and 2-3ft in SEQLD. Conditions will deteriorate away from the Points once the SE winds kick in, leaving small peelers on the Points as the cleanest option.

Short range SE swell builds a half- notch Sunday- likely an even 3ft across most of the region. Quality doesn’t look great, it’s mostly short period stuff and with SE winds options will be limited to the early before the wind gets up and then small peelers at more protected Points. 

Next week (Mar28 onwards)

A weak, troughy pattern to start off next week. Small surf in the 2ft range is expected through Mon and Tues of next week, likely accompanied by E’ly winds. 

Models are struggling to resolve the troughy pattern with GFS suggesting a broad area of low pressure off the Mid North Coast, with a thin fetch of SSE winds not particularly well aimed, generating a small increase in SE swell by Wed. This model then suggests a strong front through the lower Tasman with a favourable NE slingshot- suggesting a moderate S swell later next week.

EC model maintains a NE flow along the coast during early-mid next week, possibly generating useful NE windswell Tues/Wed next week. They have a much weaker front pushing into the Tasman Wed, with a small S swell on the radar.

Neither of these possibilities is too froth-worthy, so we’ll flag them for now and see how they are shaping up on Wed.

Check back then for the latest f/cast notes.