South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 16th Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun, easing E/SE swell Thurs, into Friday with clean conditions through the morning
• Fun leftovers Sat with clean conditions AM
• Small surf Sun with light winds all day
• Pulse of S swell favouring NENSW Mon, easing Tues
• N'ly winds Tues-Thurs
• Long range E swell on the radar towards the end of next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

It’s been a relentless run of swell and the last few days has continued the theme. Surf held in the 3ft range yesterday, bigger 3-4ft across most of NENSW, with morning SW winds tending mod/fresh SE through the day. Today has been a carbon copy with size down a fraction, more tidally affected through the morning.  Surf will slowly ease through the end of the week. Details below. 

Starting to look like Autumn

No real size, but perfect shape

This week (Mar 16-18)

A Large (1037 hPa) high which sits in the Southern Tasman with a broad area of low pressure pushing down on it, is slow moving at the moment. The trough of low pressure is broad and weak and compared to model expectations the resulting surf is coming in at the lower end of f/cast expectations. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a “tradewind” style fetch of 20-30knot winds off the NSW Central Coast as well as a similar strength fetch of SE winds off the New Zealand South Island. Both these fetches are going to supply fun sized mid period swells going into the weekend with a front and low expected in the Tasman Sea over the weekend.

No real changes to the f/cast to round out the week. Winds are easiest to f/cast so lets start there. The pattern is for light/mod SE winds to kick in during the day with periods of lighter SW winds inshore early. Those winds should extend well into the mid and even late morning before they shift around to the SE. Clean beachbreaks are on the menu early, before winds confine surfing to the Points.

Surf-wise, we are now on a general downwards trend. Leftover E/SE swell should hold in the 3ft range tomorrow morning before easing back a notch or two during the day.

A slight kick in SE swell is expected Fri. That should see S exposed breaks push back up into the 3-4ft range, especially in NENSW, with a slightly smaller payload for SEQLD. Surf will grade smaller on the Points, so if you miss the early or the tide is too high, expect small peelers on the Points on appropriate tides.

All in all, there should be plenty of fun waves to round out the working week.

This weekend (Mar 19-20)

Saturday looks to be the bigger day as far as swell goes, with leftover swell trains from the SE holding size in the 3ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW, slightly smaller in SEQLD. Again expect clean conditions with a morning land breeze, especially through NENSW and the Southern Gold Coast. The Sunshine Coast will be slightly more susceptible to early SE winds.

Size dips down on Sunday with clean leftovers in the 2-3ft range at S exposed breaks, easing further during the day. Light winds are expected all day so it should be well worth chucking a small wave board in and having a look around for a good bank. 

Next week (Mar21 onwards)

Bit of an upgrade now for Monday as a parent low tracks into the Tasman Friday/Saturday with a much healthier fetch fetch of S to SSW winds extending through the lower Tasman.

Size in the 3-4ft range at S exposed beaches is on the cards, smaller 2-3ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD. Light winds early will tend to mod N to NE winds.

That should be the high point in S swell for the week. An elongated area of high pressure over the NSW coast brings continuing  N’ly winds through Tues, extending through Wed and Thurs for most of the region.  S swell eases back through Tues, with early 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches dropping back during the day. Expect smaller surf in SEQLD.

N’ly winds look to cast a continuing pall over surf potential next week as a trough lingers over the region. 

By the Friday next week a trough, possibly forming small low off the Central Coast, will be in the neighbourhood, bringing S to S/SE winds. Surf potential looks constrained at the moment by low windspeeds and not a great deal of fetch length. Models suggest a short range S to SE swell in the 2-3ft during the day, along with S/SE winds. Nothing to get excited about.

Longer term and models are now toying with a stronger front passing through the Southern Ocean and possibly tracking NE as it enters the Tasman. Thats a long way off but we’ll keep eyes on the South as we enter the new week.

A juiced up tradewind fetch in the South Pacific has  surf potential for the sub-tropics and will add long range E swell to the mix later next weekend or early the week starting 28/2. It looks quite good on paper, but the potential for the fetch to dip down below the North Island is real, so lets not get too excited about it for now and see how it’s shaping up on Friday.

Check back Fri for a full update before the weekend.