South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 14th Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• New round of punchy SE tradewind swell from Tues-Thurs this week, biggest in NENSW and with good AM winds
• Few fun peaks Fri, extending into the weekend with small, fun surf and light winds
• Period of small surf expected next week

Recap

Plenty of swell energy to play with over the weekend, especially in NENSW, where SE swell came in a bit overs. Saturday saw surf in the 3-4ft range with lighter winds than expected. Smaller 3ft surf was reported in SEQLD. Size dipped a notch into Sunday with long range E swell a bit smaller and less consistent than f/vast. There were 3ft sets on offer across most of the region with winds tending S to SE through the day. Today has seen a period of morning SW winds partially clean up conditions with a mix of long and shorter range E swell still providing 3ft sets across the f/cast region. It’s a been a while since we’ve seen a day below 3ft in the region. 

Punchy blend of swells to start the week

Bit under-sized but the odd one slipping underneath the pack

This week (Mar 14-18)

The current high cell in the Tasman has a trough of low pressure perched atop it, maintaining an E’ly to SE’ly fetch at a southerly latitude- roughly due East of Sydney (see below). A stronger high at at even more Southerly latitude is South-west of Tasmania and tracking into the lower Tasman to replace the current high cell. This will reinforce the SE’ly fetch and maintain a weak onshore flow on the coast. This pattern slowly eases later in the week with an area of high pressure expected to develop over the Central NSW coast ,bringing light winds. 

In the short run and the wind trend is Autumnal for the next few days and likely for the entire working week. Light SW winds early tending to mod S/SE winds. Some of the more exposed beaches may stay a bit wind affected but there should be plenty of beach break options on all coasts this week.

Surf-wise we’ll see a blend of diminishing long range E swell and building short range E/SE-SE swell. Generally speaking, with the position of this fetch, NENSW will have the biggest surf over the next few days. Tomorrow should see surf in the 3-4ft range in NENSW, with the SE swell becoming dominant. SEQLD will see a little less size, with sets in the 3ft range. 

Wednesday should be the peak of the SE swell through the f/cast region, with sets in the 4ft range in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft at S exposed breaks in SEQLD. Expect smaller surf on the Points with 2-3ft surf on offer. Winds look good for the early before tending S/SE and offering up clean peelers on the Points. 

By Thursday we’ll see smaller surf for the run down to the end of the week. NENSW should hold in the 3-4ft range early, easing through the day, with SEQLD holding surf in the 2-3ft range. Similar Autumn winds with morning land breezes tending light/mod SSE to SE through the day.

Light winds round off the working week as the dominant high tracks near New Zealand in a weakening phase. Light SW winds should extend well into the morning before tending to light NE sea breezes. Swell will have eased  back from it’s mid week peak but there should be plenty of fun peak about in the 2-3ft range. 

A fetch will have been bubbling away near the North Island and down into Cook Strait through the latter half of this week. It looks quite compact and not overly strong but it should add a few small SE swell trains into the mix. Friday looks fun for a few small beachies with good conditions.

This weekend (Mar 19-20)

Small surf on the menu this weekend but offering fun options both days.  Saturday should offer a small blend of E/SE swell in the 2-3ft range. At this stage early SW winds will tend SE through the day so early will be best.

More small surf Sunday as a weak signal of SE to E/SE swell holds in the 2ft+ range. A trough of low pressure  quickly moves north ands stalls, leading to a light and variable, tending N’ly flow, at this stage. Small, clean surf should be on offer Sunday.

Next week (Mar21 onwards)

A parent Tasman low tracks NE into the Tasman later Sunday and into early next week, but it’s Surf potential is quite limited at this stage. Winds are weak and not well aimed back at the East Coast, so we need to keep expectations very low at this stage. An elongated area of high pressure sits off the NSW coast , with weak pressure gradients expected. 

That should continue the pleasant Autumnal conditions through early next week with Mon and Tues seeing light winds and small amounts of South quadrant swell. It’s not going to amount to much more than 2ft at S facing beaches later Mon, holding in the 1-2ft range Tues. Perfect for beginners.

Later next week and not a great deal is expected to be happening surf-wise. A weak N’ly flow along the coast and no real swell generating systems of note should see a period of babyfood extend from the middle of next week into the weekend.

Looking to the west and the next approaching high is travelling at a much more northerly latitude, with a deep low tracking through the Southern Ocean, without being blocked. That suggests we may start to see some action from the southern swell window as the La Niña influenced Summer blocking pattern finally begins to break down. Thats just a heads up for now, we’ll track those developments through the week’s f/cast notes.

Check back Wed for the latest update.