South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 11th Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• S/SE swell easing Fri/Sat, much more solid in NENSW
• Long range E/SE swell arriving later Sat, peaking Sun, and holding into Mon with inconsistent sets
• New round of small/fun SE tradewind swell from Tues-Thurs next week
• Still watching the tropics for develpments later next week, check back Mon for updates

Recap

S swell has been a bit lacklustre from this current event, with size topping out around 4-5ft across NENSW today, smaller yesterday. SEQLD has seen a small amount of S swell at known magnets with E swell continuing to hold wave heights in the 2-3ft range. Conditions have been average for the most part with showery SE winds making brown water looks uninviting across most of the region. The showery pattern continues but we should see workable options over the weekend. 

Mix of S and E swells supplying some surfable options in amongst the rain showers

This weekend (Mar 12-13)

The Tasman low is now transiting under the South Island, with a long band of high pressure tracking through the Bight and expected to seed a large high pressure cell into the Tasman over-night and into tomorrow. That will set up a fresh ridge of high pressure along the f/cast region over the weekend.  So expect moderate Sou-easters all weekend, with only brief windows of morning SW breezes at likely locations like the Coffs area and Southern Gold Coast.

Surf-wise Saturday sees a reasonable chunk of leftover S/SE swell through the morning, holding during the day. NENSW will continue to see 3-5ft surf at S facing beaches, smaller elsewhere. Much smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. 

Long range longer period E/SE swell from a distant South Pacific low is expected to fill in through the a’noon, with inconsistent 3-4ft sets. This will be a pulsey swell with plenty of lulls and slow periods so expect waits for sets. With SE winds expected it’ll be hard to get away from protected Points if you are chasing a wave.

Sunday will see the leftover S/SE swell holding in around 3ft at S facing beaches, dropping further during the day. It won’t be of much use with the prevailing SE winds. Of more interest is as stronger pulse of long range E/SE swell with sets muscling up in the a’noon. Stronger 4ft surf, with some bigger 5ft sets on offer at noted E swell magnets is on the menu. Again, the south-east winds will confine the best waves to the Points. You’ll struggle to find a semi-decent wave away from them on Sunday.

Next week (Mar14 onwards)

The next high pressure system moves into the lower Tasman Mon, at a very southerly latitude, even by La Niña standards (see below). 

While the ridge rebuilds we should see a temporary easing in winds through Mon, with a window of lighter SW to S winds on offer before they clock around to the SE during the day. 

Sets from the long range E/SE swell will be easing slowly, in both size and consistency through the morning with 4ft sets early. By the a’noon a more local source of E swell should be on the build with 3ft surf redeveloping. That should keep small surf chugging away on the Points. 

Several areas of troughy low pressure linger in the Tasman next week, adding a bit of oomph to SE’ly winds generated by the large high. 

That will maintain a mid period SE swell at workable levels through Tues into Thurs. It’s going to likely peak on Tues in the 3ft range with a few sets of longer range E swell in the mix.

Through Wed and into Thurs this size will drop, likely remaining in the 2-3ft range in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. The local winds in the ridge should ease back allowing lighter periods of morning SW breezes to develop with a’noon sou-easters. It won’t be amazing but there should be plenty of small, surfable waves on offer.

Into the end of next week and the weekend and we’ve got some divergent scenarios from major models. The American GFS model suggests an approaching front Fri, with a low passing south of Tasmania and bringing a S’ly change and S swell later in the weekend. Longer range model runs are hinting at the low reforming in the Tasman.

The European model (EC) is suggesting the blocking high will remain slow moving into the end of next week, with lingering E to NE swell and NE winds into Fri, possibly leading to maintencance of small E swell over the weekend with a trough system approaching from the West.

Some long range E swell is also expected in the mix next weekend, although at low levels.

We’ll flag these scenarios for now- with so much continued instability in the Tasman, Coral Seas and interior it’s likely these model scenarios will be substantially revised on Mon.

Check back then for the latest updates and have a great weekend.