South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 9th Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Background E swell holding in at fun levels Thurs/Fri
• New S swell Tues favouring NENSW, becoming solid Wed/Thurs, smaller in SEQLD
• S/SE swell easing Fri/Sat
• Long range E/SE swell arriving later Sat, peaking Sun, and holding into Mon with inconsistent sets
• New round of E/SE tradewind swell from Tues next week
• Checking the charts for potential low pressure development in the Coral Sea towards the end of next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

East swell has been chugging away in what seems like an interminable swell cycle. Size yesterday was still in the 4ft range, with light winds that tended NE in the a’noon. It’s dropped back further today into the 2-3ft range with the odd bigger set and a few stray S swell trains in NENSW. Light winds have tended to hot and humid NE breezes through the a’noon with some areas of NW to W/NW winds north of the border.  A S’ly change is on it’s way north , reaching Evans Head around 2pm.

Endless levels of E swell continue

This week (Mar 9-11)

The squeeze between a 1001 hPa low off the South Coast and 1030 hPa high moving through the Eastern Bight is producing a line of gales off the NSW South Coast, extending northwards up to the Hunter and southwards into the Tasman Sea. This fetch is producing a fast rising S swell through today in Southern NSW, with the bulk of the swell generation for our f/cast region occurring once the fetch moves out of swell shadow of the Hunter curve. This will see S swell build through tomorrow and hold at solid levels into the weekend. The low is currently semi-stationary but expected to track away to the SE quite quickly through the a’noon and into tomorrow.

S’ly winds are on the menu for tomorrow. These should tend more SW to S from the Mid North Coast to Northern Rivers and more SE north of the border, save for Coolangatta, which will see a morning SW flow. Expect E swell to chug away in the 2-3ft range and S swell to build into the 4-6ft range at S exposed breaks  in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD, smaller 2-3ft north of Cape Moreton. There should be enough E swell in the mix to see a fair spread of surf over regional Pointbreaks and semi-exposed beach breaks.

Expect more of the same on Friday. The ridge should strengthen, bringing SE winds further south into NSW and S swell should graduate by degrees to the S/SE, getting into a greater range of surf spots. Size is expected to remain around the 4-6ft mark in NENSW, easing a notch during the day. Smaller 3-4ft surf in SEQLD will be augmented by E swell hanging in around the 2-3ft range. Once again, it should easy to find rideable surf on Fri, albeit not at the pumping levels it has been lately. Lighter winds in the morning may tend SW, especially through far North NSW and on the Southern Gold Coast. 

This weekend (Mar 12-13)

Lots of combo swell expected for this weekend. With NENSW getting the lions share of the S quadrant swell and SEQLD the long-range E/SE swell. 

Pressure gradients should slacken over the weekend leading to a lighter S to SE flow, with good odds of a morning SW breeze for good chunks of the region. 

Saturday will see continuing levels of moderate S/SE swell in the 3-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 3ft in SEQLD. Through the day we should see long range E/SE swell filling in from the large low pressure system which has been sitting well to the E/SE of New Zealand in Fijian/Tongan longitudes. It’s been quite an impressive system and these long range E swells have a habit of over achieving. Nonetheless, travel distance will shave off size and consistency so a call of 3-4ft is appropriate. Don’t be surprised if some of the more well known E swell magnets with shallow banks drag in some bigger sets, where the extra period will really show on shallow banks.

Sunday repeats this combo swell pattern, with pulsey, inconsistent E/SE groundswell in the 3-4ft range and slow easing S/SE swell in the 3ft range. Light SW winds early tend to light SE winds during the day. A pulse of even longer period E/SE swell is expected to show late Sun, more likely to hit before dark north of the border. Keep an eye out for some stronger sets late on Sunday.

Next week (Mar14 onwards)

No great change to next weeks outlook. High pressure moves into the Tasman, east of Tasmania by Monday, setting up a more regulation and less robust blocking pattern into next week.

Monday looks like another good Autumn day with long range E/SE swell maintaining inconsistent 3ft sets, and the last of the S/SE swell hanging in there in the 2-3ft range. With light morning winds on offer, there should be some fun waves around if you can find a bank to handle the combination swell.

By Tuesday we will be back in a building trend as E/SE winds through the Southern Coral Sea and Northern Tasman re-energise along the broad flank of a semi-stationary high. A long, troughy area situated along the northern flank of the high aims the strongest winds at SEQLD and NENSW and this should see surf from the E/SE rebuild from a more proximate, short period source into the 3-4ft range during the day, with increasing SE winds.

That trend looks to continue into the middle and even end of next week.

GFS model is suggesting another low or cyclone tracking south from the Coral Sea at the end of next week, but again, this is right at the end of model runs and just worth flagging for now as a possible.

Check back Fri for a final look at the weekend and the longer term outlook.