South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 4th Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Plenty of solid E swell Sat, with light winds
• Slight easing into Sun, although better quality,  with light winds tending NE in the a'noon
• E swell holding into Mon and Tues with winds becoming S'ly
• New S swell Tues favouring NENSW, becoming solid Wed/Thurs
• Surf slowly eases later next week, though with plenty of residual swell

Recap

Lots of pumping surf on the Points, with floodwaters severely impacting water quality. Size in the 4-6ft range yesterday has eased a notch into the 4-5ft range today, smaller 3-4ft at more sheltered Points. Winds have been light and generally from the S.  Expect a condensed f/cast today due to impaired communications, with a return to normal service on Monday.

Lots of chocolate barrels to end a wild week

This weekend (Mar 5-6)

No shortage of E swell this weekend, although at slightly more settled levels than the last 48hrs. 

Sat will see plenty of size in the 3-5ft range, holding through the day.

With high pressure straddling New Zealand and the remnant of the trough lingering near the Mid North Coast we’ll see a light SW’ly flow through the morning, with good odds for a light S to SE breeze for most of the region during the a’noon.  Winds may tend to light NE sea breezes in SEQLD.

Plenty of surf on Sunday as well as longer range E swell from the South Pacific source kicks in at a slightly longer period. That’ll see surf continue in the 3-5ft range, with inconsistency increasing. Expect early morning light winds, tending to NE breezes during the day. 

There should be plenty of options this weekend, water quality notwithstanding.

Next week (Mar7 onwards)

E swell chugs away into next week as medium range fetches in the South Pacific window continue to supply incoming swell trains.That will see E swell hold in the 3-4ft range Mon. Winds will be fluky Mon as troughy remnants swirl around the region. Likely light and variable with sea breezes and a S’ly flow becoming entrenched in the a’noon on the Mid North Coast. 

That marks the emergence of another major system, as the remnants of the trough/low get re-energised by another upper disturbance being pushed Eastwards by a high in the bight. More on this later as it’ll generate heaps of swell next week once it spins up.

Residual E swell holds in the 3-4ft range Tues, with S’ly winds becoming established through the region. An initial pulse of S swell generated by the trough and a front sweeping up from Tasmania Sun/Mon will see surf build from the S in the a’noon, with size up into the 3ft range overlapping the E swell. This S swell will be more apparent in NENSW, much smaller and less apparent in SEQLD.

That fetch dissipates quickly on Tues, but a new low is expected to rapidly deepen off the Sydney coast on Tues, with gales developing off the coast. That’s likely to see a rapid rising S swell  Wed with size quickly ramping up into the 4-6ft range through the a’noon along with strong S’ly winds. E swell will maintain 3-4ft surf in SEQLD, but in NENSW, S swell is likely to become dominant during Wed.

Low deepens off Central NSW coast next week, bringing plenty of S to S/SE swell

Size then holds through Thurs, with plenty of size still expected, as the low slides away to the SE, towards the South Island. We’ll be looking at 4-6ft surf from the S/SE, with E swell still in the mix in the 3-4ft range. Winds will ease through the day, though stay from the S to SE.

Easing surf then runs from Fri into the weekend though with plenty of residual expected. We’ll dial in those specifics when we come back Mon, but a high moving near Tasmania maintains a weak ridge up the NSW coast. 

Perhaps by next weekend we may see an offshore flow in the morning.

Wow, what a tempestuous start to Autumn!

Check back Mon for a full update and have a great weekend!