South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 23rd Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Plenty of fun tradewind swell from Thurs onwards with light winds AM and PM winds favouring Points
• E'ly tradewind swell bumps up a notch Fri
• E'ly swell holds in with plenty of size Sat and Sun with winds favouring Points (windows of lighter winds possible)
• Days more E'ly swell ahead next week with winds looking lighter early next week
• Potential for more solid E swell from mid next week as tropics fires up, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Very wet recent 36-48 hrs in the region, as deep E’ly winds feed into a coastal trough. Surf yesterday was in the 2ft range with light winds that tended E’ly. Size has increased today, up into the 2-3ft range for most of the region, bigger 3ft on the Sunshine Coast. Conditions were variable today, mostly straight onshore for most of NENSW, with pockets of light SW breezes on the Sunshine Coast and far south Mid North Coast allowing for a session of clean waves this morning. Winds are remaining variable around squalls and storms, with a background E’ly flow dominant.

Nothing amazing but plenty of semi-clean peelers on offer

This week (Feb21-25)

Compared to Mondays Notes the rest of the week is now looking more unstable, under the influence of a classic La Niña pattern. High  pressure has strengthened  (1019 to 1030 hPa since Monday!)as it’s moved into the Tasman Sea and a series of troughs are turning the moist and deep E’ly infeed into plenty of showers and rain. This is the pattern for almost the entire Eastern Seaboard. For our region, intense rainfall totals have been reported with more to come, as the moist E’ly winds interact with a coastal trough.

With high pressure now semi-stationary near New Zealand the deep E’ly flow is set to remain place for a while, with nearshore winds in our region now tending E to E/SE with pockets of lighter winds around rain squalls and storm cells.

Tomorrow sees a further building trend in E’ly swell, as size ramps up from 3ft into the 3-4ft range. Local winds are extremely hard to predict with the current troughiness. Cape Byron winds were 20 knots E’ly at dawn and had tended light SW to SSW over lunch-time. The general flow will be from the E to SE, with a high probability of lighter and more variable flows through the day. Keep tabs on local wind conditions.

Conditions become more inclement Friday to close out the working week. The coastal trough off the SEQLD coast is expected to deepen with increasing flow on the southern side of the trough. Under current modelling this is likely to see E’ly winds increasing through the Gold Coast to NENSW area. The Sunshine Coast has a greater change of seeing a more light and variable flow, but this is far from set in stone. Size is expected to bump a notch into the 3-5ft range, likely favouring Points, under the prevailing E to SE wind, but sneaky sessions at more open beaches are potentially on offer if you can time the wind shifts.

This weekend (Feb 26 - 27)

No great change to the swell expected this weekend but the presence of the lingering trough makes winds a bit trickier to call- expect a final finesse on Friday.

Plenty of E swell both days, at similar sizes to Friday- 3-5ft, smaller down in the more sheltered corners of the Points.

This will be generated by the increasing winds in the deep E’ly wind field retrograding W towards the coast as a large area of tropical low pressure off the QLD coast starts to deepen and move S. There will be embedded areas of stronger winds in the fetch so expect some subtle ups and downs in the surf size over the weekend, with pulses also tidally affected. But the take home is plenty of swell energy both days.

Winds are likely to clock around from E/SE to a more SE or even S/SE flow as the weekend progresses as the trough moves southwards. Expect a more E’ly flow through the Southern half of the f/cast region, especially south of Yamba. 

Next week (Feb 28 onwards)

The dynamic activity which has been teased for weeks on the charts is finally coming to fruition. And the timeline has been bought forwards. 

The weekends swell regime continues into  Monday with chunky E/NE swell in the water. This should see size in the 3-5ft range continue 

E/NE swell continues at similar levels Tues. Again there may be some subtle ups and downs in the size but with so much energy imparted into the sea state, swell trains will have plenty of consistency.

Winds to start the new week should abate as the coastal trough dissipates and leaves an area of slacker pressure gradients, possibly allowing for weaker land breezes to develop before light SE winds kick in. 

It looks like a good start to the week, water quality notwithstanding after all the rain washes another load of sediment out of the estuaries.

From mid-next week model divergence makes confidence in any specific calls extremely low. We’ll sketch out the pattern and fill in the details as they become better illuminated. 

Strong high pressure belt remains in place, offering excellent anchoring/cradling for multiple low pressure systems in the Coral Sea and South Pacific. 

On it’s own terms, the high pressure belt is expected to form a long, broad tradewind fetch through the South Pacific corridor between New Caledonia and the North Island, extending back into the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea. That will maintain plenty of E to E/NE swell at least through to next weekend.

As well as a broad area of low pressure off the QLD coast this weekend, it’s possible we may see one or even two tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea and off New Caledonia next week. EC favours a cyclone off New Caledonia, moving slowly to a position off the North Island later next week with excellent potential for a sizeable blast of E’ly groundswell into the first weekend of March.

GFS is suggesting dual cyclones in the Coral Sea with a potential Fujiwhara effect, with a more NW movement back into the Coral Sea before tracking S. This set-up favours QLD, but as mentioned the extraordinary tradewind belt maintain excellent E swell potential to start Autumn off with a bang.

Check back Fri for a fresh look and a final squizz at the weekend.

Yeah, and, better get the step-ups waxed up.