South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 21st Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small weak surf Tues/Wed with clean morning conditions
• Plenty of fun tradewind swell from Thurs onwards with light winds AM and PM winds favouring Points
• Fun tradewind swell extends into the weekend and early next week
• Juicier prospects next week as tropical depressions spin up. Stay tuned for details

Recap

Small mixed bag of surf this weekend. Saturday saw a rideable 2ft, which boosted a notch into the 2-3ft range, although SE winds freshened considerably above modelled speeds, confining surf to protected spots. Sunday morning was the pick of it, with some leftover 2-3ft surf clean under morning SW winds. Size slowly ebbed away during the day and that easing trend has continued into today with surf well below 2ft in most spots. Conditions were clean early allowing for a small slide on the right equipment. It’s not the greatest surf outlook this week but an improving trend is expected from mid-week. Details below.

Low energy but rideable bluewater peaks with squalls offshore

This week (Feb21-25)

A modest (1019hPa) high in the bight is tracking E, moving into the Tasman Sea tomorrow, with a weak trough bringing a S’ly change to the lower half of NSW.  N’ly winds are expected north of the change in the f/cast region, with a new high pressure ridge slowly building and establishing a typical summer tradewind flow across the coast. More SE to E/SE in SEQLD, and tending more E to E/NE south of Yamba. 

Surf potential is size-limited in the short run but gradients should be weak enough for morning land breezes to set-in through Tues and Wed. Keep expectations low but there should be some fun beach breaks in the 2ft range through Tues, and into Wed, with a few small S swell trains boosting the more reliable S swell magnets into the 2-3ft range on the sets. Winds will tend E’ly through Tues and then more E/SE through Wed as the high pressure ridge strengthens.

Trade flows across the South Coral and Northern Tasman Sea won’t be particularly strong this week but the broad scale coverage of winds and an uptick in wind strengths in more proximate areas of the fetch Tues/Wed will be enough to see a modest building trend into Thurs and Fri, albeit a bit underwhelming compared to model guidance on Fri.

Expect a clean morning Thurs with a few small S swell trains mixed in with E’ly swell pushing up into the 3ft+ range on the sets. That should see fun beach breaks before winds from the E/SE confine clean conditions to the Points. South of Yamba expect a more straight E’ly flow.

More of the same to end the working week with a bit more size attached. Friday morning looks likely to be the best window of the week with a light SW breeze inshore early- most likely on the Southern Gold Coast and NENSW- and some fun 3-4ft surf on offer. That size will build a touch through the day with mod E/SE winds kicking up in the a’noon for the post work session at the Points. There should be plenty of fun options to end the week.

This weekend (Feb 26 - 27)

Plenty of fun E swell on offer this weekend.  The tradewind belt remains active with a classic 7-9 second period signal favouring a wide variety of spots under light winds, which should offer a window of light land breezes through the early morning. 

Surf-wise it’s more of the same : mostly E’ly tradewind swell in the 3-4ft range, with some traces of longer period S swell in the mix. 

Expect light land breezes both days to tend to SE to ESE winds, with  no major strength expected. Looks like a great weekend for a few fun waves and time on the ocean.

Next week (Feb 28 onwards)

It’s quite a static pattern into the start of next week. The high pressure belt will be maintaining a semi-stationary tradewind belt through the Coral and Northern Tasman Seas. A troughy area that was expected to intensify winds off the SEQLD coast now remains as a more broad, amorphous area of low pressure off the coast.

That will keep small levels of E’ly swell chugging along in the 3ft range through the start of next week, with continuing E to  SE flow.

A classic summer pattern.

Meanwhile the tropics are showing signs of a more active period through next week.

An active North-west monsoonal surge extending down from Indonesia into the Arafura and Timor seas and out into the Far Northern Coral Sea. Major models have been teasing us for a while now but odds are increasing that we will see tropical depressions form in both the Coral sea and near South Pacific near New Caledonia.

So, while we might have a few more small days to get through next week, likely at least through the middle of next week, odds are increasing for a more substantial E swell event later next week or early March. 

We’ll keep eyes on it and report back Wed.

For now, keep the small wave sled handy.