South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov24)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Workable E'ly swell extending into Thurs/Fri
• NE windswell developing ThursPM, Fri
• Small surf Sat, with a late S'ly change
• Increase in S swell Sun, holding Mon AM before easing with S to SE winds
• Small surf from Tues next week

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Workable E'ly swell extending into Thurs/Fri
• NE windswell developing ThursPM, Fri
• S swell pulse Sat PM, with S'ly winds
• Stronger S swell Sun, tending SSE, holding Mon AM before easing
• Small surf from Tues next week

Recap

Workable E’ly swell has provided a few fun waves since the last f/cast. Yesterday saw some 2-3ft surf with variable winds, lighter in some areas of the region, allowing for a fair spread of surfable waves if you weren’t too fussy. Onshore winds have intensified through most of the region today, lighter on the Sunshine Coast, with more surf in the 2 occasionally 3ft range on offer. With the swell from the E there was a spread of surf across beachbreaks and some small Point surf on appropriate stages of the tide. 

This week (Nov 24-26)

Not much change to the f/cast for the rest of the working week.  Large slow moving high and approaching trough system, leading to NE winds through today, tomorrow and into Friday before the trough exits on the Far South Coast and brings a vigorous S’ly change with a large swell event for the weekend. 

Expect freshening NE winds tomorrow, likely in excess of 20 knots through the a’noon. Proximate winds to the Central NSW Coast are expected to see NE windswell and residual E’ly short period swell in the 2-3ft range through tomorrow. A slight uptick in size is expected through the a’noon, but don’t expect too much in the way of extra energy, just some more 3 footers.

That pattern extends through Fri with winds rotating counter-clockwise to the N as the trough system approaches. More small NE windswell is on the menu , peaking in the a’noon, as the N’ly fetch increase in length and strength during the a’noon.

This weekend (Nov 27-28)

Lots of S quarter swell and  wind from the same direction this weekend. With the trough extending out from the NSW South Coast towards the South Island, and a long fetch of S/SSE gales developing through the lower Tasman, there’ll be no shortage of size. 

N to NW winds start out Sat, with a S’ly change working it’s way up the NSW Coast, likely reaching the Mid North Coast through mid-morning and the border by lunch-time or just after. 

NE swell extends through the morning, with an increase in S swell expected through the a’noon on the NSW North Coast, up into the 3-4ft range, just trickling into the border on dark. 

Sunday sees a more substantial increase in mid period S/SSE swell, up into the 4-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, with mod S/SSE  winds easing later, as the trough system, drifts away and  dissipates during the day.

Next week (Nov29) and beyond

The trend is down for most of next week, as a weaker high pressure system drifts into the Tasman, at a slightly higher latitude than the previous system, with weak troughs off the sub-tropical NSW Coast.

With pressure gradients slackening we’re looking at a week mostly of light onshore winds.

Monday sees good potential from leftover SSE/SE swell with plenty of residual swell in the 3-4ft range at NENSW S exposed breaks, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. easing during the day. Light SE winds may tend to land breeze inshore early, before a light SE/ESE flow. 

Expect a regime of small, weak E’ly swell from Tues-Thurs next week, with light onshore winds, possibly tending to morning land breezes. Models are suggesting size in the 2ft range and there’s no reason to modify that with a pulsating weak E’ly fetch through most of the Northern Tasman Sea.

Longer term and into next weekend, the background signal of small E’ly swell is expected to continue as high pressure drifts over New Zealand. GFS model suggests a small, troughy feature in the Central Tasman towards the end of next week, which may offer an increase in more ENE swell into next weekend, but with no other models interested in it, we’ll flag it for now and check in on Fri to see how it’s shaping up.