South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov22)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Workable E'ly swell developing Mon, and extending through most of this week, with onshore winds, tending N'ly from Wed
• Small surf Sat, with a late S'ly change
• Increase in S swell Sun, holding Mon AM before easing with S to SE winds
• Small surf from Tues next week

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Workable E'ly swell developing Mon, and extending through most of this week, with onshore winds, tending N'ly from Wed
• Small surf Sat AM
• S swell pulse Sat PM, with S'ly winds
• Stronger S swell Sun, tending SSE, holding Mon AM before easing
• Small surf from Tues next week

Recap

Not a great deal on offer over the weekend, with only a small E swell signal Sat, which climbed up into the 1-2ft range in the a’noon. Sun saw slightly more swell in the 2ft range, with light winds, except for the Mid North Coast, where strong SE winds became established. Today has seen an increase in E swell up into the 2-3ft range with mostly light winds in the North of the region, stronger E’ly from Coffs South. 

This week (Nov 22-26)

Our current unstable, stormy pattern is being driven by a peanut-shaped high straddling Tasmania, and multiple troughs of low pressure, stretching from the interior of NSW, out to the Mid North Coast and South Pacific near New Zealand’s North Island. Given the dynamic fluidity of this troughy pattern- this past weekend’s trough ended upon the Mid North Coast instead of the South Coast- we’ll still need some wriggle room even in the short term f/cast.

The crux of the uncertainty comes down to the small, surface low which has formed in the trough line off the Mid North Coast overnight.

That small low is expected to retrograde in a SW direction back to the coast through tomorrow. Surf from the E, generated by winds infeeding into the trough/low should hold short period surf in the 3-4ft range through the Mid North Coast, similar size today. Further north from Yamba up into SEQLD, swell will be mostly generated by a broad coverage of ESE winds in the Southern Coral Sea and Northern Tasman. Expect size a notch smaller in the 3ft range from this fetch. 

Winds will generally be from the E, lighter inshore early, and tending E/NE in the a’noon. There is a possibility of some periods of lighter, flukier winds around rain systems. Keep a weather eye on local winds.

E’ly swell from the Coral Sea source holds into Wed, as the small low dissipates and the infeeding fetch winds down. That sees surf holding on the 3ft range, winding back into the 2-3ft range during the day. With high pressure moving out into the Tasman, we’ll start to see winds rotating counter-clockwise around to the NE during Wed and freshening.

Those N’ly winds extend into Thurs, though with some question marks over strength as a another complex troughy area drifts over the area. Expect light winds in the morning, freshening during the day and with a small signal of ENE/NE windswell overlapping the dying E swell signal. Nothing amazing but the active sea state means it’s unlikely surf will drop below 2-3ft during the day, although quality will remain on the low end of the scale.

The end of the working week sees N’ly winds continue, lighter in SEQLD with a small signal of short period E’ly quarter swell in the 2ft range. Nothing amazing but enough to get wet on.

This weekend (Nov 27-28)

 A major S’ly change kicks in during the a’noon Sat. This change is a result of a major trough line forming in the Tasman as an interior trough exits the Coast. 

This trough is expected to exit the South Coast and form a long SSE angled fetch as it becomes cradled by a large high moving through the Bight. A pretty classic set-up.

Sat is likely to see small surf through the morning with increase in S swell in the a’noon, generated by the proximate fetch of gales to the Southern NSW Coast. We’ll need to revise the timing but it’s likely to see surf build on the Mid North Coast through the mid a’noon, later a’noon north of Ballina and just tickle the QLD border on dark. Expect some 2-3ft sets as this swell builds.

Winds remain from the S/SSE on Sun, but should moderate through the a’noon as the trough system dissipates and the cradling high slips away towards New Zealand. Swell from the deeper SSE fetch sees a slightly better angled swell on Sun with size in the 3-5ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW, building into the 2-3ft range at SEQLD S facing beaches. Expect much smaller surf away from S exposed breaks. 

Next week (Nov29) and beyond

Monday looks good for S/SSE swell leftovers as the weekends swell event rolls off on size, leaving plenty of  swell from the SSE in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft+ in SEQLD swell magnets, easing further during the day, and a lighter SSE flow which may tend to morning land breezes inshore early. 

A weak, troughy pattern then occupies the Tasman, leading to a week of light winds and weak swells. 

Frontal systems tracking through the Southern Ocean get shunted southwards next week with zonal fetches, leading to a few minor S swell trains possible through Tues/Wed. We’ll recheck that on Wed, but at this stage we are looking at marginal 2ft surf at the most reliable magnets in NENSW.

Disturbances in the South Pacific and a weak trade flow supply small amounts of background E’ly energy through next week, but it’s small and weak stuff. Tidally affected and not likely to see anything but a few stray 2ft sets.

Other than that, looks like a quiet period through most of next week.

There’s some model interest in yet another trough through the interior approaching the coast towards the end of next week which offers both the potential for a NE infeed into the end of the week and a swell event if the low moves offshore.

Both of those events are too far into the future to have any confidence in with such an unstable synoptic pattern.

Best bet is to check back Wed and we’ll take a fresh look at the upcoming synoptics.

See ya then.