South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov19)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Mostly small/marginal E'ly swell this Sat, with N'ly winds
• Small increase in E'ly swell Sun, with N'ly winds
• Workable E'ly swell developing Mon, and extending through most of next week, with onshore winds, tending N'ly from Thurs
• Possible S swell next weekend

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Mostly small/marginal E'ly swell this Sat, with N'ly winds
• Small increase in E'ly swell Sun, with N'ly winds
• Workable E'ly swell developing Mon, and extending through most of next week, with onshore winds, tending N'ly from Thurs
• NE windswell likely Thurs/Fri next week
• Possible S swell next weekend

Recap

S swell provided a few fun moments yesterday in NENSW, but failed to make much of an impact north of the Border. There was a definite mid-morning kick in longer period S swell which saw some rideable 3-4ft surf in NENSW, with quality degraded by E/NE winds. A glassy morning this morning has seen some small, glassy peaks in SEQLD in the 2ft range, similar size in NENSW, with NE winds kicking in by mid-morning and blowing out most breaks.

This weekend (Nov 20-21)

The pattern as we described it on Wed remains fundamentally the same, but the position of the moving parts has shifted which alters the surf potential into next week for the region. Unfortunately, the weekend outlook remains dire, although slightly better Sun.

Sat remains on the small side. And with end to end N’ly winds expected in the mod/fresh range you’ll have to be keen. Early is likely to see some weak, 1-2ft beach break, with back beaches offering similar size all day as N’ly winds freshen.

Sunday is a slightly different beast with a little more action from the E.  Dominant high pressure E of Tasmania will be interacting with a broad area of low pressure SW of New Caledonia. Its a fantastic area for a fetch to develop for the region, but winds are modelled to remain weak so the wave heights are consequently on the small side. Still, for surf starved QLD’ers there will be some 2ft surf on offer through Sun, building up into the 2-3ft range in the a’noon. You’ll have to deal with N’ly winds so backbeaches and Northern corners will be busy, but should offer plenty of fun options.

Next week (Nov22) and beyond

Dominant high pressure sits just East of Tasmania by Mon next week, directing a strong E’ly flow, likely enhanced by the remnants of the interior low sitting off the Central/Mid-North NSW Coast. This E’ly flow may be enhanced by another trough off the sub-tropical NSW coast or even SEQLD.

Anyway you slice it, we are looking a winds from the NE on Mon, clocking around more to the E through Tues and into the middle of next week as the high develops a long ridge up the NSW and QLD coast.

The most likely outcome is a regime of mostly short period E to E/NE swell with size picking up into the  3-4ft range during Tues, building on 2-3ft surf through Mon.

A caveat to that is if any local troughs form off the coast and see increased wind speeds leading to more size.  Models have been toying with troughs off the QLD coast in recent runs so we’ll monitor those developments and report back Mon. 

There’s no let up in the troughy pattern with the second half of next week seeing increasing NE winds, as the pressure gradient is tightened on the western flank of the dominant high by (yet!) another complex trough system approaching from the interior. 

The E’ly flow proximate to the QLD Coast maintains E’ly swell through Thurs and possibly Fri, further into NENSW, that is likely to tend more to NE winds swell as N’ly winds increase along that region’s coast.

By the end of next week a strong frontal system approaches from the Southern Ocean, driving further instability along with the interior troughs.

A S’ly change is on the cards for Fri next week, with potential for a  boost in S swell next weekend 27-28/11. That could take various forms- once again models are all over the place. The frontal progression below Australia is likely to produce some longer period S’ly swell.

An elongated trough line through the Tasman, may spawn a low East of Tasmania next weekend or generate a broad wind field of SSE winds through the Tasman. 

We’ll also mention some developments in the South Pacific, which are marginal but worth flagging in case they flare up. A sub-tropical low well to the NE of New Zealand sets up early next week, quickly migrating Eastwards into the Pacific. If that system becomes more slow moving it may be a source of E’ly swell into next weekend.

A Tradewind band is modelled to develop near New Caledonia into next weekend, which offers potential for E’ly swell into the week 29/11.

Confidence is extremely low this far out due to the extreme instability in the synoptic pattern, we’ll monitor over the weekend and report back Mon with a full update.

Until then, have a great weekend.