South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov17)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Leftover S swell Thurs AM
• Mostly small/marginal E'ly swell this weekend, with N'ly winds
• Small, weak swells continue into next week

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr

• Stronger S swell peaking Thurs AM before easing, best winds AM before N'lies kick in
• Mostly small E'ly swell this weekend, with N'ly winds, small S swell Sun
• Small, weak swells through first half of next week

Recap

S swell filled in through Tues, a little over-budget in NENSW, disappointingly under-budget in SEQLD. Size built into the 3-4ft range in NENSW yesterday with light winds giving way to E’ly breezes. Not much of that got north of the border, 1-2ft on the Southern end of the Gold Coast and only tiny surf on the Sunshine Coast. Size has remained in the 3ft range in NENSW today at S exposed breaks, smaller 1-2ft on the Gold Coast swell magnets and weak and tiny on the Sunshine Coast. Winds have kicked up from the SE as a high pressure ridge builds along the sub-tropical and tropical coast. 

This week (Nov 17-19)

The remnants of the previous low pressure system  are now to the south, and crossing New Zealand, which means it’s swell generating potential for the region has now ceased. The strongest pulse of the swell is still propagating northwards up the NSW coast, with a slightly longer period and slightly better angle than the previous pulses, which have been a bit flukey. 

Weak high pressure is drifting out from the SE of the country to enter the Tasman Sea at time of writing. Weak fronts are below the country and an inland low is tracking across from WA, tied to the continuing pattern of interior troughiness which is associated with a developing La Nina pattern. This pattern, which has been with us for most of the last few weeks, is expected to see continuing small, flukey swells into the medium term.

Short term and the last pulse of S swell will peak in the morning across NENSW, with sets in the 3-4ft range at S exposed breaks. With the increased period and slightly better swell direction we should see a bit more make it across the border with 2-3ft sets at S exposed breaks in SEQLD. Winds will will be a problem, with a light E’ly flow that tends NE through the a’noon. Probably worth surfing through the lump and bump considering the meagre forecast ahead.

Friday sees a few small leftover sets from the S in the morning before NE windswell as the major swell train in the water. Keep expectations pegged very low for Fri, as N’ly winds really kick up a stink, which has been a  missing feature of this Spring. Small sets from the S, will be worth some early 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW, but they will already be wind affected in the morning. Through the a’noon, as N’ly winds reach speeds in excess of 20knots it’ll be backbeaches only and there won’t be much swell on offer.

This weekend (Nov 20-21)

Not a great deal on offer this weekend with only small, flukey swell sources to rely on and N’ly winds across the entirety of the weekend. To be honest you’ll be scratching to find a rideable wave both days.

 Sat looks tiny through the morning. Some very small weak NE windswell in the water, along with a small, weak signal of E’ly swell generated from trades in the Coral Sea/South Pacific. Size all up will struggle to reach 2ft, possibly slightly above 2ft on the Sunshine Coast due to proximity to the tradewind belt. N’ly winds will kick up early, so you’ll need to make for a backbeach or deal with hard side shore winds. Better day for kites and flathead fishing.

Sunday maintains the fresh N’ly flow as the inland low begins to approach the coast. Great news for farmers and the Murray-Darling basin as the moisture infeed into the low promises another round of useful rainfall west of the Divide. Not great news for surf though. 

Small amounts of weak S swell in the water early, below 2ft, more likely 1-1.5ft at the best swell magnets get over-lapped by NE windswell in the a’noon, which should build into the 2ft range. All under a regime of fresh N’ly winds.

Just as a sidenote, a sub-tropical low pressure system does form in the South Pacific in the favourable area NE of the North Island on the weekend. As a snapshot it looks like a swell producer. Successive model runs quickly push it south into the swell shadow of the North Island before it has any chance to generate meaningful E swell for the region. We’ll track this source over the weekend on the off chance the system stalls in our swell window and hope for better news on Fri.

Next week (Nov22) and beyond

The interior low exits the coast Mon next week, but remains too far south to disrupt the N’ly flow through Mon, with a S’ly change expected Tues. 

No great swell sources are on the radar for early next week. The exiting Tasman low is weak and too far South to produce much except a few small S Swell trains which will top out at around 2ft on S facing beaches in NENSW.

In SEQLD a regime of weak and small E’ly swell from the Coral Sea/South Pacific will maintain a short period background surf in the 2ft range, through Mon, easing a notch through Tues into Wed. 

There’s really not much to get excited about. 

From Wednesday onwards confidence in the weather models becomes extremely low as they struggle to resolve a troughy pattern. Some kind of elongated NNW/SSE angled trough-line off the NSW coast, extending sub-tropical latitudes is expected to form next week. This may form a small surface low Thurs, or drift off with a weaker S’ly change expected later next week. 

It looks weak and mobile so history suggests a cool bias is appropriate, with low surf potential expected.

Following that, a strong high at southerly latitudes is moving through the Bight suggesting a strong S’ly pattern possibly as early as next weekend. 

This high has some potential to set-up a useful tradewind flow in the Coral Sea, going forwards. Models have been hinting at some sort of tradewind set-up for the last few weeks and with Spring coming to a close, climatology would suggest it's ahead in the not too distant future.

Confidence is very low this far out, so we’ll keep monitoring and report back on Fri.