South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov15)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell late Tues, holding Wed with light morning winds, tending ESE through the day
• Leftover S swell Thurs AM
• Mostly small E'ly swell this weekend, with N'ly winds

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell Tues AM, bumping up a notch in the PM
• Stronger S swell Wed/peaking in the PM and Thurs AM before easing, best winds AM
• Mostly small E'ly swell this weekend, with N'ly winds, small S swell Sun

Recap

Not a great deal of surf over the weekend. In fact Sun and today have been close to pancake flat in SEQLD. Sat saw a small amount of leftover NE windswell, just rideable for the keen, with W’ly winds. S swell has provided NENSW with a few 2-3ft sets at S facing magnets from yesterday a’noon into today, with mostly W’ly winds which have tended more N’ly during the mid-day hours as Seabreeze effects tweak the dominant W’ly flow. 

This week (Nov 15-19)

A deep mid-latitude low with high pressure support in the Bight and multiple cold fronts has now moved E of Tasmania with W to SW gales pushing out of Bass Strait and a deeper SSW fetch pushing up from the Southern Ocean into the Tasman Sea. It’s a wintry looking system and it has a nice sting in the tail as a small troughy intensification slingshots up into the Tasman Sea through tomorrow, giving another longer period pulse S swell to add onto the main body of the swell.

Surf from this system shows tomorrow, primarily the Bass Strait refracted S swell, which will have fill in early morning in NENSW, reaching the Far North Coast mid-late morning. That will supply surf a bit undersized but in the 2-3ft range through the morning at S facing beaches, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD at S facing magnets. Cleanish under early light W/SW winds. Size builds into the late a’noon, up into the 3ft+ range at S facing beaches, 2ft in SEQLD. Winds will be a problem as they tend S/SE then E to E/NE as a high pressure ridge builds in quickly behind the passage of the front.

The high pressure ridge quickly establishes through Wed, bringing a regime of light/mod SE/ESE winds. It’s a lighter flow than models suggested on Fri, and the possibility of short range SE swell generated from it has also been downgraded. 

S swell will be the dominant swell train in the water Wed. With the lightest winds early that will be the time to chase the max size available at S facing beaches which should be in the 3-4ft range in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at S swell magnets and Northern Corners in SEQLD. By the time the wind kicks in you’ll need to shave off size or deal with onshore winds to get a surf in.

The initial body of S swell will be supplanted on Thurs AM by longer period S swell from the troughy slingshot Mon. Those swell trains will overlap, with the stronger swell expected in the morning. Size in the 3-5ft range, smaller 3ft in SEQLD is expected through the morning, so if you can work around the not quite ideal  winds there should be a few options available, especially if you can sacrifice a bit of quality for size. Expect size and consistency to roll off through Thurs a’noon.

Fri sees the leftovers of the S swell with early size in the 3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD easing back during the day. The N’ly pattern kicks in during Fri, with lightest winds early, possibly NW before they tend NE and freshen. With best conditions and most size in the morning it makes the early a no-brainer.

This weekend (Nov 20-21)

Tricky little weekend ahead with no major swell sources but enough flukey swell trains to get wet if you can get out of the expected N’ly winds. These winds are expected both days, possibly lighter and more NW inshore early, so be prepared to hunt down backbeaches or deal with side shore/onshore winds.

We’re not looking at any major swell trains Sat, just some small background E swell from the weak trade flow in the Coral Sea, extending out into the South Pacific. That won’t exceed surf in the 2ft range so get the grovel boards ready.

Sunday looks much the same- small background E’ly swell in the 2ft range, with a few fun peaks at backbeaches about the best of it. Some small longer period S swell makes landfall in NENSW through the a’noon, generated by a passing front on Fri/Sat. Keep expectations pegged very low for this source. It’s only worth a few 2ft sets at NENSW S swell magnets.

All in all, it’s a weekend better for things other than surfing, but you will get wet if you are keen.

Next week (Nov22) and beyond

The interior low exits the coast Mon next week, driving W’ly winds across the region. Surf potential from this low as it enters the Tasman looks constrained from this far out. Without a supporting high pressure ridge the low dips south with winds aimed at Tasmania, then meanders across the Tasman, with quite a weak fetch through Bass Strait, then along the western flank of the low.

Thus we’re only looking at a modest S swell potential from the low, probably bumping a notch during Tues/Wed next week, into the 2ft range at exposed S facing beaches. Mon is likely tiny/flat.

Another interior cut-off low is expected to approach the coast Wed, suggesting an increased NE infeed into the low and potential for NE windswell by during Wed next week.

A weak trade flow in the South Pacific holds a low level background E swell into next weekend, likely below 2ft.

This unstable pattern is likely to have low model predictability so expect major revisions as we enter next week. Get what you can from this round of S swell because the following period looks small and flukey.

Check back Wed for a full update.