South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov12)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Tiny/weak surf for most of the weekend, slight bump Sun PM at S swell magnets
• Tiny leftovers Mon
• Modest S swell late Tues, peaking Wed, with light morning winds, tending ESE through the day
• Leftover S swell Thurs, possible short range SE/ESE swell Thurs/Fri
• Possible juicier E swell next weekend, low confidence, check back Mon for revisions

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small bump in S swell Sat, slightly stronger Sun PM with offshore winds both days
• Tiny leftovers Mon
• Stronger S swell Tues PM next week, peaking Wed, easing Thurs with light morning winds, tending ESE through the day
• Short range SE/ESE swell possible Thurs/Fri
• Possible juicier E swell next weekend, low confidence, check back Mon for revisions

Recap

Generally craptacular surf since Wed with only a weak 1-2ft surf yesterday across the region and N’ly winds. Today has seen a period of light N to NW winds but with only continuing weak 1-2ft surf on offer it hasn’t amounted to much. A few clean peaks at some of the more reliable backbeaches has been the best of it. 

This weekend (Nov 13-14)

A few slight changes for the weekend f/fast. Read on for details.

Winds will be from the Western quadrant all weekend and the surf is likely to be ironed flat in SEQLD, with the small S swell trains on offer not likely to make landfall north of the border, save a few small peaks at the mouth of the Tweed.

NENSW offers up a few small waves from the S through Sat, but keep expectations low, we’re talking 2ft tops at the more reliable S swell magnets. They should be clean under the prevailing W’ly flow. 

Sunday gets a little upgrade, in energy at least. A coast hugging fetch of gales whips past the NSW South Coast overnight Sat, into the early hairs of Sun, before the low moves away rapidly during the day. That proximate fetch should be well timed to deliver a few 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches Sun a’noon, under W’ly winds. Sun morning maintains small/tiny surf and close to flat in SEQLD, probably a better day for diving/rockfishing.  If you are really keen, bring a big board to the beach, and look for a shallow bank.

Next week (Nov15) and beyond

A trough in advance of a cold front sweeping through the SE on Sun re-energises the W’ly flow through Mon but we’ll be on the backside of Sundays pulse so leftover S swell will be the sole swell source. This should see some 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches in NENSW, with a small 1-2ft signal at S swell magnets in SEQLD. Size and energy ramp downwards during the day. 

The cold front is associated with a strong low and deep SW fetch though which sees an increase in directional S swell which will build through the day  Tues, fanned by light W through WSW winds through the morning session which then tend to light E’ly breezes in the a’noon. Expect size in the 3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD . 

Wednesday looks to have plenty of potential for good surf, with light land breezes early, tending to light/mod SE/ESE breezes in the a’noon. A compact area of severe gale winds is expected to track northwards through the Tasman as the entire system tracks across the Tasman on Mon. This sees a nice pulse of S to SSE swell through Wed a’noon, likely in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW. The slightly more SSE angle should see some fun 2-3ft surf in SEQLD at S facing beaches and Northern corners.

High pressure drifts off the Central/Southern NSW coast by mid next week. This sets up a ridge along the sub-tropical coast north of Coffs, with SE winds likely to extend from Wed into the end of the week. 

Leftover SSE swell should hold wave heights in the fun 2-3ft range in SEQLD through Thurs morning, with bigger 3-4ft surf on offer at S exposed breaks in NENSW. Early light winds should see clean conditions for the morning session, before winds tend to the ESE. That offers up some small clean peelers on the Points. 

Short range SE/ESE swell is also a possibility through from Thurs next week as the ridge drives SE winds through the Northern Tasman from sub-tropical latitudes.

Models then diverge with EC suggesting a trough in the Central Tasman and a more solidified sub-tropical trough/low in the Coral Sea, with more potential for surf in the sub-tropics than temperate NSW. If the EC resolution comes off, we’ll be looking at some some solid ESE swell coming into next weekend. GFS has a much more modest outcome, with small SE swell continuing.

There’s simply too much model disagreement going into next weekend to have much confidence in the f/cast, but it does seem like the La Nina pattern is ready to kick off a more substantial low pressure development in the favourable window north of the North Island, which was identified in the latest ENSO update from Craig.

Check back Mon, and we’ll have a full and fresh update on the week ahead.

Have a great weekend in the meantime.