Lots of wind changes ahead with flukey, weak swells to continue over the weekend
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov10)
SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- Small, weak NE windswell Thurs
- Tiny/weak surf for most of the week
- Small bump in S swell possible Mon
- Modest S swell late Tues, peaking Wed, onshore winds likely
- Possible short range SE/ESE swell from Wed next week
Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- Tiny NE windswell Thurs
- Slight bump in S swell Fri PM at S facing beaches
- Small bump in S swell Sat, slightly stronger Sun PM with offshore winds both days
- Stronger S swell Tues PM next week, peaking Wed
- More S swell likely by end of week, stay tuned for revisions
Recap
Small surf has been on the menu since Mon. Tuesday punched slightly above it’s weight with some clean 2ft surf and with light winds extending through lunch-time there were quite a few fun waves to be had. Today has eased back into the sub 2ft range at most spots, with N’ly winds setting in, confining clean options to only a few backbeaches. A better day for ducks to be honest.
This week (Nov 10-12)
The synoptic chart remains complex and dynamic with a spider web of troughs across the country, emanating from an inland low and weak low pressure systems in the Tasman sea and straddling Tasmania. No great pressure gradient squeezes are on offer at present with only flabby high pressure drifting NE in the Tasman sea. The troughy pattern will see multiple wind changes through to the end of the week with some flukey swells on offer before the inland low enters the Tasman this weekend and supplies another flukey S swell. A stronger front Mon next week, tied to a polar low, is still on track to deliver a more substantial S swell event early next week.
Short term and low pressure consolidates E of Tasmania through tomorrow, bringing a S’ly change to southernmost parts of the f/cast region. Typically these stalled S’ly changes fizzle out on the Coffs Coast, or between there and Yamba. North of there and in SEQLD expected continuing N’ly winds through both Thurs and Fri.
We’re not looking at much surf to be honest. A very weak signal of E/NE windswell below 2ft is expected through Thursday, with a few S swell trains on offer through Fri at S facing beaches in NENSW.
Friday sees N’ly winds set back in across the region.
Friday a’noon offers a potentially slight improvement in winds due to the inland low exiting the South Coast during the day, with winds swinging NW during the a’noon. With only small surf on offer across the region it’s not likely to be of great interest except for the super keen.
At stake is a small blend of low energy swells from the NE and S unlikely to top 2ft at even the most reliable swell magnets.
This weekend (Nov 13-14)
No great change for the weekend at this stage, although there is still scope for changes in details as the pattern unfolds over the next couple of days.
The inland low exits the coast Fri, bringing a fresh W’ly flow which is expected to span the weekend. With the strongest winds on the northern flank of the low, pushing away from the coast, the scope for swell generation is limited from this system, especially in SEQLD.
It’s not a total fizzer. Slightly longer period S swell trains from Thursday’s Tasman low should provide a few 2ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW, possibly 2-3ft at some of the more exposed breaks. Not much on offer north of the border unfortunately, where surf will struggle to be 1-2ft at the most exposed swell magnets. Small size will be offset somewhat by offshore winds, which will make for groomed conditions. Might be perfect for someone looking to crack their first green wave.
Sunday remains small/tiny for most of the region. A proximate fetch of SSW to SW gales along the South Coast and extending southwards into the Tasman Sea adjacent to Tasmania during Sat, provides a small flush of S swell which should peak Sun a’noon in the 2ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW. Tiny surf is expected to continue in SEQLD. With offshore winds continuing through the day it’ll be worth chasing something down at a S exposed beach or reef in NENSW.
Next week (Nov15) and beyond
Offshore winds continue through Mon as a strong cold front pushes up into the interior and maintains the stiff W’ly flow. Not much surf is expected Mon in SEQLD, just a few small leftovers from the S, and possibly a weak NE windswell from pre-frontal winds. Slightly better prospects for S facing beaches in NENSW, which should see some 2-3ft sets early, decreasing during the day.
The fetch associated with the front, tied to a deep polar low, is a swell producer. We’ll need to see how the storm shapes up to finesse the specifics but gales out of Bass Strait and a deeper fetch of SW/SSW gales pushing NE into the Tasman through Mon, see S swell building later Tuesday. Expect size to push up into the 3-4ft range during the late a’noon at S facing beaches, after an undersized start. Winds look a bit iffy, with another trough in the Central Tasman quickly seeing winds shift from WSW to SSE/SE through the day. Unfortunately, tiny surf is expected to continue in SEQLD through Tuesday.
Onshore winds remain an issue through Wed, most likely, as the trough drives an onshore pattern through most of NSW. Solid S swell in the 3-4ft range is expected at S facing beaches in NENSW, with some smaller 2ft surf making it into SEQLD S facing beaches. Hopefully we’ll be in a better state with winds when we come back on Fri.
Short range SE/ESE swell is also a possibility to begin developing through Wed, although winds look quite weak at this stage, so it doesn’t look likely to exceed 2 to maybe 3ft.
Longer term and the next high pressure system tracking through Australian longitudes is located at a very southern latitude. This position sets it up to be a good source of cradling any low pressure developing in the Tasman next week. Major weather models diverge greatly over the outcome of this, but both suggest low pressure in the lower Tasman later next week, with good prospects for swell generation into next weekend 20/21 Nov.
Check back in on Fri and we’ll update this prospect as well as take a final look at the weekend outlook.
See you then.
Comments
Doldrums.
yep.
probably some really good fishing/diving days ahead.
The ocean is already an ungodly green northerly mess here. 2-3 ft of dogshit through the carpet.
Might transplant a few trees before 5he storm tomorrow and leave the surfing to the hardcore crud jockeys.
Yep. Water temp has dropped right back too.
Yesterday definitely was above expectations, some nice clean little NE swell runners in Cooly (check the replay at 0430). Incredibly by 0600 there was 100 out. WTF? What happened to the days of the local crew scoring a few on a sneaky unexpected swell before word gets out? With the checkpoints still in full force they must have all been from the north too. Oh well, accurate as always Steve, cheers.
absolutely re yesterday. GC beachies were the funnest they've been for the dawny in a long while for me, with barely anyone (considering) where I surfed. The points are a moot point for mine until the beachies become to big to punch through. Shit show and always leave feeling worse lol.
I saw some uncrowded options but was still feeling very shabby from the paralysis tick bite.
fucker took me into deep water.
amazing how toxic they are.
Don't mess about if it drags on, Lyme Disease etc.
I went to A and E and they took a swab and prescribed antibiotics.
see what they say.
found another one crawling on me this morning.
I'm slightly paranoid .
Jeezus, yeah keep an eye on those.
this humid weather and rapid growth in vegetation is perfect for them.
Yep, watch them mate. I work for an environmental consulting firm with a fauna rescue department. One of the guys recently brought in a bandicoot with 2 cattle and 24 paralysis ticks on the poor bugger. Unbelievable he survived and even more crazy how tough they are. Ones enough to take a man's life in a couple days/week.
Did they take Blood Freeride ?
Keep an eye on inflammation markers - CRP .
came up in a big pussey boil, which they broke and swabbed.
Did you have to think through your spelling when writing pussey?
I added the e.
all time record price for the females last year $6.50 each
Yep be careful with ticks. They freak me out more than spiders or anything else. I always manage to get at least a few bites each year, had one last year that came up in a red welt about 10 x 15cm for a few weeks. Might have been a mild case of Qld Tick Typhus (rickettsia). The usual feeling like crap, headaches, lethargy etc as well. Have already found 2 crawling on me this year, no bites yet. Although they don't even have to bite you for you to get infected
Oh really re that last sentence? How else would they infect you?
Their poo. Apparently a tick carrying the disease can infect you if you come into contact with its faeces.
Wow.
Where did you hear this?
I am a retired tick collector and have picked thousands and thousands of ticks off my tickin blanket over the years and never got infected from contact.
The only way is through getting bitten, When I was out ticking I would always take off my shirt and check myself every half hour and if I had one bite me I would pull the tick off immediately
Managed to get full blown tick fever about 20 years ago, what happened was I went to sleep with one on me, giving it time to pump its toxin into me overnight , this experience was the sickest I have ever been in my life, the fever was incredible, wave after wave after wave for several days, I thought I was going to die. But a healthy GOD made immune system has the ability to fight it and beat it,
that sounds like fun.
I had one on my testicles once, right when I met my now wife, after a surf at one of the Broken Head back beaches.
she tried to pull it out with tweezers and couldn't get it out. Took 5 or 6 attempts to get it.
I could literally feel waves of toxin shooting through me after each attempt. Walked out of the bathroom and collapsed with my entire skin covered in angry red welts.
that gave me an anaphylactic reaction, trip to hospital.
and the area swollen like a pair of grapefruits for a few days.
I didn't realise until recently they are Arachnids, members of the same family as spiders.
Screw that haha. Almost bitten there but not quite.
With removal I've heard so many different theories contradicting each other, do this , don't do this etc. What I do, and it's probably not advised, is as soon as I feel one under my fingernail, I'll dig it straight out, split second. Push down hard under it with the fingernail and scoop it out with a little bit of skin. Seems to work ok. Even better to get them before they bite, they kind of feel prickly when they crawl on you
Reminds me of the time a nurse was inspecting my nuts and I started running my fingers through her her....umm awkward! Lol..
Christ you're a smooth talking ladies' man FR!
They do like nestling in the nuts though.
The ticks that is.
How long was there between "hi, I'm Steve" and "can you please help me get this tick off me nuts"?
Was that a passion or a profession?
There’s a trillion ways to live this life hey!
This is only referring to Qld Tick Disease, or Qld Tick Typhus. Not the ticks own toxin, or anything else. I just read it all again, here's what it says and the link. I may have been wrong, it says 'infected hosts', I assumed that was ticks carrying the disease? Maybe it's referring to host animals the ticks use? But I know personally on a couple of occasions I've pulled ticks off from under clothes that haven't bitten, and been left with small red welts where it was (erythematous rash). Nowhere near as bad as when they bite though, no other symptoms.
"Infection can result from the bite of an infected tick or from exposure to the faeces of infected hosts. Ticks in the affected areas generally survive by feeding off other wildlife (Figure 4), including marsupials and rodents."
https://www1.racgp.org.au/ajgp/2018/june/queensland-tick-typhus
I'm no expert, did some research last year after some 'different' reactions to some tick bites
I'm quietly shitting myself about these Ticks. Got two border collies that I run everyday. Whats the best defence against these evil F@@@kers against dogs?
Love surfing, not too worries about myself, but what advice do you guys have to prevent my dogs from getting nailed?
We use nexgard, chewable tablets/treats, meant to stop ticks, fleas, worms etc. He hasn't had a tick or flea or anything since using it so seems to work
Thorough check after the run too. You'll probably find one if it's just entered. Hard with all that hair on border collies but worth taking that time.
Stayed at a place out West of for a while, the owner had a little bitsa terrier that had it's run of the property, kept the scrubbys off the prize garden. Anyway lots of bush and a creek running through the place, this little dog always had a handful of ticks on it, never slowed it down the couple of years I was there and it was over 10yo, couldn't believe it. Apparently they can gain a level of immunity, wouldn't recommend it though, tick prevention is cheap and easy for pets.
Can we have a seasonal tick forecast please Steve?
my pleasure.
Ixodes Holocyclus (paralysis ticks) one of 75 species of ticks in Aus.
Mostly found East of the divide where they are the most common tick species.
4 stage life cycle.
larvae, nymph and adult all suck blood.
adults most common spring/summer, love humid, warm weather.
Soil moisture is the main determinant for tick population levels.
Ie right now, with a warm, wet spring they are are abundant.
Nice, ticking all the boxes.
Boom, tish.
Nice one Craig. Got my tick of approval.
https://www.northernbeachesadvocate.com.au/2021/10/31/wrong-end-of-the-t...
Interesting listening https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radiolab/articles/alpha-gal
My worst nightmare, been bitten by a tick and then no longer been able to throw an eye fillet on the bbq
burning ears
Haha
thanks for that link Udo. Good to see some solid research into Australian tick-born diseases. They are a problem, and a growing problem. The work of Prof. Peter Irwin and colleagues is interesting. All the talk of long covid, there are many out there who have long been suffering much the same due to the lingering effects of tick bites and the bacteria they transmit.
Philosurphizing... - were you researching ticks?
I've found applying some top-shelf manuka honey to the bite a few times a day for at least a few days has helped ease the severity of the bite.
No, I was just a tick collector, going out into the bush with a blanket, selling them to the vets up here on the far north coast who have set ups where they make the serum which they sell to other vets all over Australia to treat peoples pets suffering from tick paralysis.
Twelve million dollar industry is one number I have heard.
One of the serum labs buys 40,000 ticks each spring, currently paying $4.50 per tick.
Not sure how good this season has been for collectors but the wet weather conditions this year is a big positive.
The 3 previous springs were very dry and this had a huge effect on tick numbers, some of the serum labs didn't even fill their quotas hence the price of $6.50 per tick last year.
In the good years prior the serum labs would easily fill their quotas in the first 7-8 weeks of spring.
Back when I was ticking best price was $2.50.
Lowest was 60 cents.
Never had any long term side effects from the tick fever and don't know of anyone who has, but like you say who knows what sort of nasty bacteria was in the tick that bit me, and it more than likely varies depending on the host animals general state of health.
Philo, that’s interesting stuff, although had thought it might have been April Fools for a minute!
Did you just walk around the bush looking for them or is there more of a technique? Wonder how they go making a serum out of tick bits.
Piece of white cloth...Tick Dragging
There are environments where the ticks thrive, bunches of trees such as sally wattles with long grass and bush underneath, bandicoots and wallabies will sleep under the cooler shade and the ticks will drop off.
So a tick collector will scan this area with a nice furry blanket by just throwing the blanket while holding one corner and after a few throws check the blanket and if you find any you keep going over that area.
The ticks have barbs on their legs and will easily catch on, you pick them off and put them in a jar which has a tape covered hole in the lid with small air holes and slightly moist moss inside.
Something not many people know about ticks is the way they respond to dropping air pressure.
At the start of a typical spring the weather is hot and dry and the ticks are fairly lethargic just being still under a cool shady tree down in the moist leaf litter, then as soon as we get our first thunderstorm and the pressure starts to drop the ticks get active and climb up the long grass and do this thing called 'questing' where they wave their barbed front legs around, hoping to catch onto any passing animal.
So pet owners always check your animals if they have been outside after rain.
Here is the heavy part, how they make the serum.
The vets have beagle dogs which have a strong immunity to ticks just like bandicoots.
What they do is put half a dozen ticks on the beagles head and the ticks do their thing and after a period of time the vets take some blood out of the dog and with this live blood are able to make serum.
Vets have tried to make serum synthetically but have had no success.
Not sure of the Karmic consequences of being a tick collector.
Hopefully I don't come back in the next life as a beagle or a bandicoot.
Wow, who'd thought. Never knew.
Thanks Greenjam, will try that.
Freeride....if you ever need a helping hand....not sure about letting them near your Scrotum
&list=PLAPjtiaDzmvtM2KarLQOmwCD48BR0Vy8T&index=1Missed all this, however yesterday I had to buy an antihistamine and steroid cream for a tick I discovered on my arm Wednesday morning. Must've been there all night, and it had completely lodged itself in. Hit it with Tik Tox and managed, with some difficulty, to get it all out cleanly. It'd got its toxins into me, and by midday yesterday my forearm had swollen right up and was itchy as hell.
The swelling has gone down a bit this morning.
Our family has had a heap of ticks already this season, but at least we've got the first aid ready, a few packs of Tik Tox, and now the stuff I bought yesterday. Might also try the manuka honey.
Gonna be a big leech season too.
Jeeeeeez..........
Sounds horrendous getting exposed to ticks on the regular. Never really heard much about em in southern Vic.
Glad all we've got down here is the cold, pissing rain and constant onshore wind this time of year.
They find them on Penguins in Antarctica.
sounds like an interesting $ earner Philosurphizing...
seems some of us have been copping some nasty tick hits lately. I've rarely had large ones here, mostly get tiny nymph stage ones I guess, often dont even see them, just the bite erupts. But I've had the fullgrown ones lately and a couple of nasty bites.
thanks Stu for the mention of Tick Tox - just what I need. I had a similar thing, I think a skin tag freeze dry thing but it was awkward to use. So this will be better to have on hand.
I used to smother my work boots and socks in garlic, just rubbing fresh cloves all over them. Seemed to keep them away
I used the Manuka honey last night green jam.
the bite went angry again, like the flesh around it had necrotised, like an open burn blister.
so covered with manuka honey.
better today.
glad to hear its on the improve Freeride.
that Manuka is magic stuff I reckon, it has so many applications, an essential of the medicine kit for me from here on
You tried jelly bush honey on them?
No waves here on the MNCoast just heaps of wind (WNW). Been a dud spring for surfing. As far as ticks go the worst I've had was a blue cattle tick embedded in my scrotum. Think it backed out after dousing it with metho, which wasn't the greatest experinence considering where it was dug in!