South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov8)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswell Tues and Thurs
• Tiny/weak surf for most of the week
• Small bump in S swell possible Sun 
• Stronger S swell Mon/Tues next week, stay tuned for revisions

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswell Tues
• Slight increase in S swell Wed with NE winds
• Slightly stronger S swell Fri
• Small bump in S swell Sat, slightly stronger Sun
• Stronger S swell Mon/Tues next week, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Surf over the weekend was close to f/cast expectations, if a tiny bit on the “cool” side. Saturday saw mostly 2-3ft long-lined surf from the SE/ESE with NE winds arriving to spoil the party. Backbeaches had some fun waves and surf kicked into the 3ft+ range during the a’noon. Sun saw leftover 3ft sets, which became smaller and less consistent as the day went on, with more NE winds through the day. SE/ESE swell dropped right back in the mix today, with NE windswell becoming the dominant swell train. Size was in the 2ft range and with mod NE winds on offer there weren’t many clean options on offer, away from a few selected backbeaches and northern corners.

This week (Nov 8-12)

Pressure gradients are weak across our main swell windows and through the region as an interior trough drifts NE and a weak, troughy area extends out into the Tasman sea, without creating much of a squeeze on a weak high pressure centre over New Zealand. That is creating a soft S’ly fetch adjacent to the NSW Central/South Coast through today and tomorrow before wind swing N’ly again as another troughy/low forms E of Tasmania Thursday. This system is weaker, more compact and more mobile than modelled when we prepared Friday’s notes so the whole surf potential for this week now looks much more subdued.

So, the upshot is a few days of short period small surf, with tomorrow seeing surf in the 2ft+ range from the NE with an early S’ly change, possibly SW inshore early, making it’s way up the coast, to be at the border around sunrise allowing for some babyfood options on the Points, before winds lay down and tend variable E’ly in the a’noon.

Wed sees more small surf, with pre-frontal N’ly winds increasing through the a’noon. A local NE fetch forms during the day, which should see a modest increase in NE windswell, up into the 2ft+ range with the most size and best conditions later in the a’noon. Nothing amazing but offering up a few post-work side-winders at appropriate locations.

By Thursday compact low forms just to the East of Tasmania. Unlike other systems that have formed there this Spring, this low is much more compact and mobile, so swell producing potential is only modest. SW gales out of Bass Strait, form just in advance of a similar strength fetch around the SW flank of the low as it moves out into the Tasman. Thursday will see a window of leftover NE windswell from overnight N’lies, cleaned up by a light morning NW wind.

Winds feeding into the trough and an advancing interior low are expected to provide more N’ly onshore winds through Fri , which makes it hard to recommend anything other than sloppy leftover NE swell from Thursday and a few small 2ft S’ly swell trains at S facing beaches in NENSW from the low which formed E of Tas.  Fri a’noon has some potential for improving conditions. The interior low is expected to drift SE down towards the Victorian/NSW border near the Far South Coast. Depending on the timing that could see winds switch to the NW late Fri a’noon, offering potential for some clean 2ft surf at backbeaches , mostly a mix of short period swell trains from the N’ly proximate fetch and some S swell from the low tracking away through Thurs. Check back Wed and we’ll update the prospects for this little window to see whether it's worth working around.

This weekend (Nov 13-14)

It’s quite an unusual f/cast for November. The large interior low exits the coast near Eden Sat morning , driving fresh W’ly winds along the Northern flank of the low north from Batemans Bay. These winds are then enhanced by a strong cold front pushing into the Tasman from the Southern Ocean during Sunday. 

So a weekend of mostly W’ly winds. What about swell? 

Not a great deal, unfortunately, although we need some wriggle room, depending on the position of the low as it moves off the Far South Coast.

Sat morning is likely to be small, with only residual S swell in the 1-2ft range on offer at S facing magnets in NENSW. Tiny/flat elsewhere. A small bump up in size is possible in the a’noon, generated by a proximate fetch of SW/S winds along the Far South Coast as the low moves offshore. Keep expectations low for now, but there may be some 2ft+ sets on offer later Sat at S swell magnets south of the border.

Sunday looks a better bet, with at least 2ft surf on offer through the day from the South, 2-3ft at the best NENSW S swell magnets. If you can find a good bank, all day W’ly winds should provide some perfect textured babyfood for big boards and beginners. Keep expectations pegged very low for SEQLD though, its likely going to be a better day for snorkelling the rocks than surfing.

Next week (Nov15) and beyond

Stronger S swell on the menu early next week; with Monday likely to see surf in the 2ft range,  with W’ly winds tending SW/S late in the day as the front pushes well into the Tasman.

The front comes with a broad fetch of winter-calibre SW/S winds which track NE from below Tasmania into the Tasman during Mon. This generates a much stronger pulse of S swell for Tuesday. We’ll need to see how the pattern plays out but at this stage we are looking at size in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD at S swell  magnets through Tuesday a’noon. Winds look very flukey through Tuesday with a possible small trough off shore leading to winds which could be anywhere from SW to SE or even NE depending where the trough sits. We’ll need a few days before we can make a call on that.

Longer term and that high looks to be quite mobile, suggesting a brief spell of N’ly winds before another front pushes into the Tasman, with good odds for another round of S swell into late next week, the weekend of Nov 20/21. 

Obviously with such a long lead time, that scenario may be subject to serious revision.

Check back Wed, for a full update on that and our more short term outcomes.