South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov5)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Pulse of longer period ESE/SE swell holding Sat, easing Sun, with best winds AM in a generally N'ly flow
• Not much on the radar next week, small S swell possible Wed
• Slightly stronger S swell Fri
• Potential for next weekend with trough/low off the coast, stay tuned for revisions

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Pulse of longer period ESE/SE swell  holding Sat, easing Sun, with best winds AM, in a generally NE'ly flow.
• Small S swell Wed next week
• Stronger S swell Fri
• Potential for next weekend with trough/low off the coast, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

The whole week has seen small, gurgly windswell in the 2ft range, surfable for the keen, and with some periods of lighter onshore winds available through the mid-morning period. Today started with similar conditions and size before swell from the SE/ESE began to fill in through the late morning with sets to 2-3ft. Quality has been low/mixed with a straight onshore E to ENE flow. There have been periods of lighter winds around rain squalls, allowing for windows of cleaner conditions if you can get the timing right.

This weekend (Nov 6-7)

Not a great deal to add to the weekend f/cast notes. The fetch out of Cook Strait, extending up past Taranaki Peninsula and into the Tasman sea looked good on ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes through Wed/Thurs, with areas of storm force winds embedded in a long fetch of severe gales to low end gales. With the buoys and observations already confirming the swell it’s only local winds we’ll be concerned with. 

Not much change to that f/cast either, with E to NE winds expected both days, lightest inshore early and possibly tending to light land breezes through Sat morning.

Expect 3-4ft surf through Sat-possibly a few 5ft sets at known E swell magnets/backbeaches- with period charts showing the strongest phase of the swell through the mid morning session. Wth big mid-morning new moon (spring) tides that will likely be a bigger factor in surf quality through Sat and Sun. 

A roll off on size is expected through the later part of Sat a’noon and that easing trend continues overnight and through Sun. That will leave us with leftover 3ft+ sets with surf easing further into the 2-3ft range during the day.  Keep your eyes on local wind obs both days with a chance for some periods of lighter winds both days around squalls or rain showers.

Next week (Nov8) and beyond

Extreme troughiness continues next week, so we’ll outline the basic pattern and be prepared for revisions when we come back in on Mon.

For now, a NW/SE angled trough line off the NSW Coast on Mon, brings a S’ly change likely arriving on the Mid North Coast through the morning and reaching the far North Coast through the a’noon. The change may stall before it reaches the QLD border. It’s a weak area of troughy low pressure- featuring a couple of weak low centres- without much strength or duration in the S’ly winds that develop along the western flank of the trough line so it’s likely only worth a couple of feet of low quality S windswell through Tues/Wed. A few leftovers from the E/ESE through Mon morning will be worth a few 2ft sets, likely clean under morning NW winds.

Pressure gradients rapidly ease through Tues and Wed as the weak, elongated trough exits stage right, with more weak, troughy areas of low pressure expected to meander into the lower Tasman. That sees small, weak S swell through Tues, likely no bigger than 2ft at S facing beaches, easing into Wed, with weak E’ly winds expected. 

Nothing major though, just a couple of feet at best so keep expectations very low for Tues and Wed.

Things get more juicy Thurs. A stronger low is expected to form off the Gippsland Coast as a front interacts with the areas of troughy low pressure, with areas of gales forming adjacent to Tasmania and extending up into the Central Tasman. We are unlikely to see swell from that source until late Thursday, with a late kick in size into the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches. Quality will be affected by strong S’ly winds extending up the coast with the swell.

That swell source is expected to rapidly move away out of the swell window, leasing to a morning peak in size through Fri next week, likely in the 3-5ft range at NENSW S facing beaches and 2-3ft at SEQLD S swell magnets,with an extremely uncertain wind forecast.

The uncertainty hinges on the model divergence as we come to the end of next week. A trough line off the Far North Coast NSW is suggested by the EC model, with E’ly winds extending from sub-tropical NSW down to the Mid North Coast , feeding into an approaching inland low. Which may form another surface low somewhere off the Central Coast.

GFS model suggests a trough line off the South Coast, forming a surface low next weekend.

Both scenarios suggest surf, although with wildly differing wind regimes and areas of maximum swell generation.

Thus, it’s appropriate to take the model outputs with a grain of salt until we start to see some consistency in the trend. Hopefully that will be the case by the time we come back on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend.