South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov3)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Short range SE/ESE swell persisting into Thurs, with an onshore wind flow
• Pulse of longer period ESE/SE swell building Fri PM, holding Sat, easing Sun, with favourable AM winds
• Not much on the radar next week, small S swell possible Wed
• Potential trough off NSW North Coast later next week, stay tuned for revisions

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small levels of short range SE/ESE swell persisting into Thurs with an onshore flow, favouring North of Yamba
• Pulse of longer period ESE/SE swell building Fri PM, holding Sat, easing Sun, with favourable AM winds
• Small S swell possible Wed next week
• Potential trough off NSW North Coast later next week, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Not a great deal of quality swell to work with since Mon but there have been rideable waves for the keen. Tuesday saw a few leftover sets from the S, mainly at NENSW S facing beaches, with some short range ESE swell in the mix. That provided a few 2-3ft options, mostly low quality with onshore winds, along with some baby food peelers at sheltered Points. Today has seen more short range ESE swell, in the 2ft range with a few swell magnets providing bigger, but sloppier 2-3ft surf. Mid morning glass-offs were reported at a few locations which, along with warm blue water, made the small sloppy surf more fun to ride. 

This week (Nov3-5)

The block pattern noted in Mondays f/cast notes is now well established. It’s a troughy block pattern, with a series of low pressure troughs through the Australian interior, and a large slow moving high pressure cell now located near the South Island of New Zealand. The southwards located high is producing a summer synoptic pattern, which is expected to remain resilient through the rest of the week and into the weekend, before the next S’ly change early next week. 

The good news for our surf prospects is a complex low pressure system located just NE of the North Island is strong enough and large enough to generate severe gales to low end storm force winds out of Cook Strait, adjacent to the Taranaki peninsula and extending out into the Eastern Tasman sea. This fetch is on track to generate a great pulse of E through ESE swell for a broad swathe of the East Coast. Typically these fetches are compact, transient, very E’ly aligned and favour Central NSW. This one is longer, more durable, more SE in orientation and thus is expected to favour a large length of the coast, extending up into sub-tropical NSW and SEQLD.

Current ASCAT (satellite wind speed) passes show the fetch already at storm force strength as it develops in the areas mentioned above, leading to high confidence in the upcoming f/cast.

We’ve got one more day of small gurgle to get through with  short range E’ly windswell in the 2ft+ range through Thursday and E’ly winds through the day, lightest inshore early. 

Those winds will remain through Fri but we’ll see meaningful increase in mid period ESE swell through the day, after an under-sized start. Expect surf to build into the 2-3ft range through the morning before a more substantial increase through the midday/early a’noon, with size building into the 3-4ft range, possibly with bigger bomb sets at some of the more E facing magnets through the late a’noon. E’ly winds will mean you’ll have to deal with plenty of lump and bump on the beachies, or a bit of surface chop at all but the most sheltered Points/Bays. Those winds may tend more ESE on the Sunshine Coast.

This weekend (Nov 6-7)

No significant changes to the weekend f/cast. Plenty of ESE swell in the water Sat morning, with size in the 3-5ft range, and the same  SE to E wind regime as the block pattern will have been re-set by reinforcing high pressure which slips into the Central/lower Tasman Sea late this week. Winds look a little lighter on Sat, especially in the morning, with a small chance of a morning land breeze. Swell is expected to peak through the morning, with a slow roll-off in size expected through the a’noon. There should be plenty of swell energy to get through the day.

Sunday sees swell from the same source fetch, but with a more substantial easing trend now in play. Winds kick in from from the northern quadrant, possibly tending WNW to NW inshore early. Expect size in the 3ft range early, easing back into the 2-3ft range during the day and becoming weaker and less consistent as both size and period drop out. There should be plenty of fun beachbreaks on offer Sun morning.

Next week (Nov8) and beyond

Still some uncertainty over how early next week will play out as models struggle to resolve the extreme troughiness over both inland and Tasman Sea areas. 

A NW/SE angled trough line in the Tasman Sea off the NSW South Coast  is a likely outcome through Mon, bringing a S’ly change, either Tues morning or Tuesday a’noon, depending on how this trough resolves.

That suggests a small flush of S swell for late Tues or early Wed, under current modelling with S’ly winds in play and of low quality. Don’t expect much more than 2-3ft at S facing magnets in NENSW, with marginal size in SEQLD.

Weather models diverge from mid-next week, with EC maintaining a small trough or surface low in the Mid-Tasman, suggesting a modest S swell regime through Wed/Thurs, while GFS maintains a weak low down towards the South Island, with small, weak S swell for the region Wed/Thurs.

An approaching mid-latitude low is likely to cross the interior of NSW/Victoria towards the end of next week, bringing enhanced instability. Possibly seeing a NE infeed into the approaching system or a break-out trough line in NENSW. Both of those scenarios are likely to be substantially revised due to the extreme instability and dynamic nature of this troughy pattern.

Check back Fri, and we’ll run the ruler over the weekend f/cast as well as stay up to date on the surf potential for next week.