South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov1)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Leftover S swell easing through Tues AM
• Short range SE/ESE swell persisting into Thurs, with an onshore wind flow
• Pulse of longer period ESE/SE swell building Fri PM, holding Sat, easing Sun, with favourable AM winds

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Leftover S swell easing through Tues AM
• Small levels of short range SE/ESE swell persisting into Thurs with an onshore flow, favouring North of Yamba
• Pulse of longer period ESE/SE swell building Fri PM, holding Sat, easing Sun, with favourable AM winds

Recap

South swell was a bit slow to get going on the weekend with Saturday’s expected pulse not arriving until just on dark or after through most of the region. Sunday was a different story, with strong, long period energy across most of NENSW, clean under early SW winds. This saw 3-5ft surf, which filled into SEQLD and supplied some 3ft waves at S facing beaches. Conditions quickly deteriorated as a high pressure surge saw fresh/strong SE winds develop across the region. There was just enough energy for some clean peelers at more protected Bays. Today has seen strong S swell in NENSW, in the 3-4ft range, now easing, with smaller 2-3ft surf in SEQLD at S exposed beaches. Early light winds have now tended to E’ly breezes with messy conditions becoming established. 

This week (Nov1-5)

The robust low responsible for the current S swell event has now fled the Tasman sea, so we are relying on residual  swell which is now on the downslope. A large (1025 hPa) high pressure system is currently drifting over Central NSW into the Tasman sea and this high pressure cell is expected to track SE, strengthen and  become slow moving as it meanders near the South Island for most of this week. That creates a summer-style synoptic pattern, with SE/ESE Tradewinds through the sub-tropics and a N’ly flow through temperate NSW. A low pressure system developing north of New Zealand’s North Island drifts south to be over the North Island Wed, and while that blocks most of the fetch from generating swell for the East Coast, it does shoot out a fetch through Cook Strait Wed/Thurs which looks like a tidy source of ESE swell for the region Fri/Sat. More details below.

Looking short term and the blocking pattern will be established, resulting in a regime of E through SE winds through to the weekend.  These winds cover a large part of the Southern Coral and Northern Tasman sea and while they aren’t especially strong, the sheer breadth of the fetch is expected to maintain short period E’ly quadrant swell through the week. It’s not quite a classic tradewind set-up due to the high not setting up that long flat-topped ridge but it’s useful enough for this time of year. 

E’ly winds through Tuesday are expected to tend more SE through the day as the high slips to the SE and changes alignment in the wind field. Expect leftover S swells, with a few sets in the 2-3ft range, at S facing beaches, fading away quickly through the day. We’ll also see that short period E swell holding in the 2-3ft range.

There won’t be great surf but enough energy to produce a few small peelers on the Points, or, more likely, some raggedy beachbreaks rideable for the keen.

This regime of SE/ESE winds and short period swell holds through Wed and Thursday, with a slight quality increase likely Thurs as wavelength draws out a bit as the fetch matures.

Just a quick side note. Sea Surface temperatures are abnormally high at the moment (close to 24 at Mooloolaba and Byron). Warm inshore SST’s can reduce or reverse the temperature differential between land and sea and nullify quite strong gradient winds, sometimes leading to a phenomenon where early morning onshore winds back down mid-late morning. It usually occurs later in Summer, but a heads up is warranted this week due to the warm inshore SST anomalies.

The end of the working week is expected to see a marked increase in swell, from the Cook Strait fetch we mentioned earlier. Under current modelling this gale to severe gale force fetch elongates out of Cook Strait, adjacent to the Taranaki peninsula and retrograding  into the Tasman Sea Wed, and into Thursday. 

This looks great for a pulse of ESE groundswell arriving Fri, building during the a’noon from an under-sized 2-3ft into the 3-5ft range by close of play. You’ll have to work with the continuing ESE wind, but if you can solve that problem there should be plenty of good surf through Fri a’noon to wind down the week. 

This weekend (Nov 6-7)

Plenty of ESE swell through Sat from the Cook Strait source, with size likely to peak in the 4-5ft range through the morning, before size rolls off slightly in the a’noon. Winds look good, with local pressure gradients eased and a possibility of a morning land breeze.  Winds will be better through the morning, any way we slice it. Saturday looks good.

Sunday will see the leftovers of the ESE swell, with reduced energy in the 3-4ft range, declining through the day. The block pattern will be starting to shift as an inland trough approaches, likely seeing winds from the N to NNE freshen during the day. Again, winds will be best early before they crank up, likely being enhanced by a’noon Seabreeze effects.

All in all there should be plenty of fun surf this weekend.

Next week (Nov8) and beyond

Into next week and models are struggling to resolve the troughy pattern as it enters the Tasman Sea. The northerly pattern is likely to extend into Mon, with small NE windswell on the menu.

A troughy, S’ly change is likely Tuesday or Wed next week, and although there’s considerable model divergence with lends extremely low confidence in the specifics, a new S swell is likely through Tues/Wed next week. No great size expected at this stage. 

A possibility exists for a surface low to form on the trough line sometime during mid next week with uncertain surf potential, so we’ll flag that for now and revisit on Wed.

Check back Wed for a fresh update.