South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct22)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small surf Sat with small window of clean conditions AM before NE winds kick in
• E/SE swell builds Sun, with light winds AM, S'ly change PM (may not reach Sunshine Coast)
• E/SE swell holds Mon AM, slowly easing PM and into Tues. Good AM winds
• Small S swell on the radar for Tues/Wed next week

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small surf Sat with brief window of clean conditions AM before NE winds kick in
• E/SE swell builds Sun, with good winds AM, S'ly change PM
• E/SE swell holds Mon AM, slowly easing PM and into Tues. Good AM winds
• Initial S swell pulse Mon, stronger pulse Tues PM
• S swell peaks Wed AM, easing Thurs
• More S swell potential for next weekend 

Recap

Winds have been generally light over the last 48hrs, with periods of favourable conditions to ride what has been a generally lazy and weak surf. There’s been some 2ft sets, which perked up a notch in NENSW yesterday a’noon, as winds clocked around the compass. Swells have generally been in the 2ft range today, slightly larger at NENSW swell magnets, with early light winds giving way to NE seabreezes. Nothing to write home about, but enough to get a shortboard moving.

This weekend (Oct 23-24)

Still a dynamic weekend f/cast ahead. The current Tasman low has drifted out and become absorbed into a long, NE/SW angled trough in the South Pacific, which is currently organising and energising a broad but thin fetch of E’ly gales from the South Pacific down into the Tasman Sea adjacent to the North Island. It’s a complex wind field which is expected to be quite mobile, but still capable of generating a nice pulse of ESE’ly swell for the region.

That swell is expected to build in Sunday, along with mod S’lies as a low forms East of Tasmania in a trough line.

For Saturday we are looking at swell trains from the more proximate Tasman low, slowly easing through the day. Weak high pressure off sub-tropical NSW generates a NE flow through tomorrow, but there’s not much synoptic strength in it, so early winds are likely to be favourably disposed from the NW before clocking around to the NE and freshening in the a’noon. Expect a continuation of weak and lazy 2ft surf, with a possible 3ft set further south on the Mid North Coast.

Sunday hinges on the S’ly change which is working it’s way up the coast. This is likely to be at the bottom end of the f/cast region by 9am, working it’s way north to be around Yamba, mid/late morning and the Border by later in the a’noon. Confidence in the change is lessened by the small, troughy area in front of it, which could stall or create convergence zones so you’ll need to keep tabs on local winds Sunday. Unfortunately, the change looks to stall out before it hits the Sunshine Coast, which is likely to see a N’ly flow there for Sunday. Through the a’noon, longer period E swell is expected to fill in, with wave heights reaching 3-4ft. Expect smaller 2ft surf to be there until the longer period ESE swell fills in. The fetch position is more favourable for the southern end of the f/cast region, so expect the upper end of the size range down there.  It’ll be a tricky day, with lots of differing wind angles through the day and across the region.

Next week (Oct 25) and beyond

The new Tasman low East of Tasmania dominates the first half of next week, but it does look a bit less favourable for swell production compared too Wed’s f/cast. It stays closer to Tasmania, in the swell shadow of the Hunter curve suppressing swell potential for our region. Despite the slight haircut in size Mon will still have plenty of surf with E swell from the North Island source in the 3-4ft range, easing back during the day and a smattering of shorter period S swell along the NENSW coast, refracting back into the coast. Winds are expected to have S’ly component early but with latest model runs continuing the troughy pattern along the coast a NE Seabreeze is possible. There’s still a lot of troughiness lingering along the NSW coast so local wind convergences are likely/possible. Keep tabs on local winds and check the comments for updates.

Lighter winds are more certain for Tuesday with a peak in S swell likely during the a’noon.

 The Tasman low reaches peak intensity through Mon, with a compact but strong fetch of gales off the Gippsland and Far South Coast.  Expect a wide variety in wave heights through the region as some areas dip out due to the fetch position. 

Longer period S swell pushes wave heights up into the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW during the a’noon, smaller 2ft at SEQLD swell magnets. Easing E/SE swell should provide a few small 2-3ft sets early before easing in the mix. 

Wed sees a morning peak in S swell with some longer period swell providing 4ft sets across S exposed breaks in NENSW, and some small leftover E swell in the mix. Expect a peaky blend of 2-3ft surf in SEQLD at exposed breaks, easing during the day. A weak, troughy pattern maintains a regime of light SSE/SE winds, which won’t be offensive considering we are at the end of October, normally the peak of the NE season.

A couple of days of N’ly winds are expected through the latter part of next week, as weak high pressure at sub-tropical latitudes slowly gets squeezed by another approaching front and trough. Thats likely to lead to couple of days of small, poor surf, especially in the context of the run we have been getting. Small leftover S swells Thurs in the 1-2ft range, with a developing 1-2ft NE windswell Friday. Nothing to write home about and probably not worth surfing.

Into the medium term and another mid-latitude system is expected to approach Tasmania next weekend. Models are still divergent on this system with EC pushing it into the lower Tasman, then spawning another low in the Central Tasman among a trough line. That would see S swell likely Sun with major swell potential into the week 1/11. GFS has a more modest, stalled low, which moves into the Tasman as it weakens next weekend. Suggesting much more modest S swell potential into November. With the dynamic and troughy Spring pattern so far, no doubt these prospects will be revised when we come back on Mon.

Check back in then and have a great weekend.