South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Oct20)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small levels of peaky background E swell Thurs
• Small bump in E/ESE swell Fri with light winds
• Small surf Sat with clean conditions AM
• E/SE swell builds Sun, with offshore winds AM, S'ly change PM
• E/SE swell holds Mon AM, slowly easing PM and into Tues. Good AM winds
• S swell on the radar for Tues/Wed next week

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small levels of peaky background E swell Thurs
• Bump in E/ESE swell Fri with light winds
• Small surf Sat with clean conditions AM
• E/SE swell builds Sun, with offshore winds AM, S'ly change PM
• E/SE swell holds Mon AM, slowly easing PM and into Tues. Good AM winds
• Initial S swell pulse Mon, holding Tues
• Stronger S swell pulse Wed, easing Thurs

Recap

All day light winds have seen some pleasant conditions across the region but size has been right down, suitable for a grovel both days with surf in the 1-2ft range, slightly bigger 2ft+ at NENSW swell magnets. This very troughy, “doldrums” pattern is expected to continue for the rest of the week. Read on for details.

This week (Oct 20-22)

Yesterday’s troughy S’ly change in SENSW has now spawned a small, weak, surface low, which ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show to be offshore from Jervis Bay. This small low, is cradled by a large (1033hPa) high located in a very southerly latitude SE of Tasmania. The interplay between the two systems is producing a fetch of E/SE winds through the Central Tasman, in effect a sub-tropical looking tradewind style fetch we might see in Summer. Another weak, troughy low pressure area is located off the Mid-North Coast. Unfortunately for sub-tropical NSW and SEQLD the pattern is too weak and south-wards located to be much of a swell producer for the region. On the plus side, light winds and the “doldrum” pattern will see clean conditions and some small waves expected to be marginal for short-board surfing but good for a grovel.

With the trough stalled on the Mid North Coast there will be a lot of wind variability over the next couple of days through the region. Likely SW to S through the Mid North Coast to Yamba, variable on the Far North Coast to Gold Coast and NE on the Sunshine Coast. Winds should be generally light though, with land breezes expected in the morning. 

Small levels of swell from the E keep wave heights in the 2ft range through tomorrow, with workable winds through the AM. Nothing special but worth a grovel on the beachbreaks or a log on the Points through the lower tides.

A slight increase in ESE swell Fri, more noticeable in the southern Range of the region, with proximity to the weak low pressure in the Tasman, sees wave heights bump up a half notch to the 2ft+ range on the sets in SEQLD, 2-3ft in NENSW. A weak, troughy airmass and weak high pressure cell off sub-tropical NSW should see light and variable breezes for most of the day, before NE seabreezes kick up through the a’noon. A few  fun, peaky options to end the working week.

This weekend (Oct 23-24)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast.

Saturday sees continuing levels of small ESE swell from the weak low in the central Tasman. The morning looks the best of it, with leftover 2-3ft surf, easing back during the a’noon. Light morning W to NW winds then tend to NE seabreezes through the PM.

Sunday is a more dynamic day. A strong front and advancing trough is likely to push through Sun, bringing a S'ly change, likely on the Mid North Coast mid morning, North Coast by lunch-time and border by mid a’noon. 

Surf-wise, E’ly to ESE’ly swell trains from a more distant source make landfall on Sunday. These swell trains are generated as a deep, angled trough through the area between the North Island and New Caledonia merges with the remnants of the Tasman low and focusses E to ENE winds in a broad area near the North Island during Friday. Expect a significant signal from the E/SE to develop during the day, likely building from 3ft into the 3-4ft range, possibly with some 5ft sets at E swell magnets. This will obviously favour spots with protection from fresh S’ly quarter winds later in the day. Prior to the change, winds are expected to tend NW to N. We’ll finesse those in Friday’s notes.

Next week (Oct 25) and beyond

Lots of potential next week as our very active Spring continues. The front producing the weekend S’ly change spawns a low East of Tasmania, which is expected to be slow moving through next week, possibly even retrograding back into the Tasman and providing multiple pulses of S’ly swell through next week, favouring NENSW.

E/NE swell from the North Island source is expected to peak through Mon morning. Mid period punchy energy should see size in the 3-4ft range through the morning at favourable E swell exposures, easing during the day. S swell trains will be in the water too, with 3ft of raggedy energy across NENSW, smaller in SEQLD, bulking up in power during the day as the period lengthens. With S’ly winds quickly easing during the day and tending to light E’ly breezes there should be plenty of options on offer through Monday.

Tuesday offers plenty more surf potential with another combo swell day on the cards. Easing E swell and strengthening S swell is the gist of it. Light offshore winds early suggest fantastic beach break potential with leftover 3ft E swell easing and 3-4ft of S swell expected at S facing beaches in NENSW. E swell will be dominant in SEQLD.

Slightly longer period S/SSE swell generated by a northwards moving fetch from the low east of Tasmania during Mon is expected to provide the peak of the S swell on Wed next week. Size is likely in the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD. Winds will still be fresh from the S’ly quarter so protection will be needed, shaving off a lot of the size. 

Into the end of next week and easing is expected, as swell from the S generated by the Tasman low, eases back through Thursday and moreso on Fri. Models are divergent on the outcome towards the end of next week, with GFS sliding the low slowly towards the North Island where a decaying fetch out of Cook Strait may provide a small pulse of ESE swell into next weekend (30/31 Oct). EC suggests a high in the Northern Tasman, with NE winds, potentially strong enough for small NE windswell.

No doubt with the long lead time, those scenarios will be revised.

Check back Fri for a fresh update for the weekend and next week.