South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct18)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell leftovers Tues with N'ly winds
• Small levels of peaky background E swell Wed/Thurs
• Small bump in E/ESE swell Wed, holding Thurs, easing Fri, with light winds
• Better quality E swell Sat with N'ly winds
• E swell holds Sun, with offshore winds AM
• S swell on the radar for Tues/Wed next week

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• S swell leftovers Tues with N'ly winds, lightest early AM
• Small bump in E/ESE swell Wed, holding Thurs, easing Fri, with light winds
• Better quality E swell Sat with N'ly winds
• E swell holds Sun, with offshore winds AM
• Strong S swell on the radar for Tues/Wed next week

Recap

A lovely weekend of mostly clean, small surf just passed. Saturday saw W’ly winds for most of the day, for most of the region, with some pesky NE winds through the day at places on the Southern Gold Coast and Tweed. Surf was mostly leftover NE windswell in the 2-3ft range, with the occasional longer period 2-3ft set from the E. Size dipped right back on Sun, with 1-2ft surf on offer and clean conditions through the morning.

Long period S swell has filled in overnight with S facing beaches in NENSW in the 3-4ft range, grading smaller 2-3ft at swell magnets in SEQLD. Unfortunately, only a brief window of clean conditions were on offer before north easterly winds kicked in and blew it out.

Another active Spring week is ahead so lets dive into it.

This week (Oct 18-22)

South swell is on the way down now, with  leftovers in the 2-3ft range through tomorrow , easing during the day. Winds won’t help the cause though, with N to NE winds, potentially tending variable later in the day. If you have a backbeach that can handle directional S swell then hit it, otherwise, surfing conditions will be very ordinary.

From tomorrow  we see a large, southwards located high and multiple troughs located in the Tasman sea and inland become the dominant synoptic features for the week. This is going to set-up some tricky, short-lived fetches as well as another week of multiple wind changes. Timing the changes is probably the key feature to scoring some fun waves this week.  Compared to Friday’s f/cast notes the set-up with the blocking high and weak Tasman low is a bit further south, which reduces the swell potential for this region as compared to model runs on Friday.

A stiff S’ly charge works it’s way up the coast  overnight Tues, possibly arriving  across the Mid North Coast just before close of play. These winds are expected to tend more SW across the Mid North Coast, more S’ly up towards the border and north. The change should run out of steam quickly sort of the border and tend to light/mod E to SE breezes.

A small increase in short range S’ly swell mixes in with some background E swell, generated by a lingering weak tradewind fetch in the zone SW of New Caledonia. This lingering E’ly windfield maintains a steady drumbeat of small E’ly swell through the rest of this week.

With the blocking pattern now set-up well to the south, SEQLD and NENSW spend the second half of the week in a weak synoptic vacuum with light and variable breezes occupying Thurs and Fri. 

Small amounts of ESE swell  from a small low aimed more at Central/Southern NSW augment the background E swell through Thurs with surf hovering in the 2-3ft range, more likely at the top end of the scale the further south in NSW you are located.

By Friday surf from both these sources starts to weaken and it’s likely we will end the working week with weak, peaky babyfood in the sub 2ft range. Just enough to get a grovel going and with light and variable winds expected, you should be able to find a surfable peak at most open beaches.

This weekend (Oct 23-24)

Game of two halves this weekend. While the small Tasman low chugs away a more distant trough in the South Pacific deepens later this week, energising a fetch of E/ENE winds north of the North Island. Compared to model runs on Fri, this fetch is more mobile and not quite as strong under current modelling, so we will see reduced swell potential this weekend. 

Swell from this more distant fetch should overlap with more proximate E’ly swell trains through Sat with size expected to maintain pulsey 2-3ft surf, with the odd 4ft set on open stretches on the Mid North Coast. Winds are likely to tend N’ly and freshen during the day as a front approaches from the W.

Sunday sees more swell from the ENE, probably the peak from that source, with some 3ft+ sets on the radar, ,more likely in the a’noon as longer period sets fill in. Frontal W’ly winds are expected through the morning, producing clean conditions, before they tend to NE seabreezes in the a’noon.

Next week (Oct 25) and beyond

We’re looking at great prospects for solid S swell early next week beginning 25/10. A  trough moving offshore from the South Coast NSW deepens to a low and is reinforced by a deeper southern fetch as a cold front joins the party. Timing of this swell is still a bit uncertain but by later Mon it’s likely to be propagating northwards along the coast, potentially seeing wave heights build quickly by close of play on the lower end of the Mid North Coast. 

If not by late Mon, Tuesday should see plenty of strong S swell, likely in the 5-6ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD . With the long lead time those calls are likely to subject to revision. With the S swell come S to SSE winds as a high pressure ridge quickly builds along the coast during Tuesday.

Further ahead and models show the low lingering in the Tasman as it slowly weakens. Thats suggests a long tail of slowly easing S swell through the middle to later part of next week with conditions improving as the low moves away and local pressure gradients ease. Another active Spring week ahead.

Check back Wed for a full update.